China\'s Belt and Road Initiative benefits from Brexit?

China's Belt and Road Initiative is seemingly attracting some Central Asian and Eastern European countries to actively participate in this 'win-win' proposition for 'enlightened self interest'. The Brexit shock, which prompted many to question the future of the European Union itself, is helping in no small measure some of the hopefuls of joining the EU in tilting their decision.    
The initiative refers to the Silk Road and Economic Belt linking China with Europe through Central and Western Asia by inland routes and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road connecting China with Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe by sea. This ambitious initiative, launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 to revitalise the ancient Silk Road over land and maritime trade routes linking East and West, has attracted considerable attention globally.
President Xi Jinping visited Serbia, Poland and Uzbekistan which situated right along the ancient Chinese Silk Road, in June and focused on the Belt and Road Initiative in his meetings with the leaders of the three countries. These three countries were also amongst the first to positively respond to the initiative and are likely to play important roles in its implementation.
Informed sources say the logic behind this strategy is quite clear. With China's GDP (gross domestic product) growth coming under increasing strain, Beijing has to look for opening up new avenues for building up mutually beneficial trade relationships with others. Those countries can benefit from China's lower value added activities and allowing its economy to move up the value chain. They are rightly calling it a 'win-win situation.'       
Meanwhile, a Xinhua news agency reporting from Beijing says, Serbia had signed a memorandum with China in 2015 to jointly promote Road and Belt construction. Currently, Serbia is actively pursuing to reindustrialise and attract foreign direct investment. Obviously, Beijing is responding to it with due importance, though the report did not provide much details. Similarly, Poland has also agreed to provide a gateway for China to enter Europe.
Last month (June), in a signed article in the leading Serbian newspaper Politika, Xi Jinping said: "Our cooperation on major projects is making heartening and sweeping progress, delivering economic and social benefits to and having a positive impact on the entire Central and Eastern European region."
Serbia, responding to this positive statement said that it is ready to seize the opportunity and play an active part in China's initiative to align the development strategies of the two countries, "deepen their pragmatic cooperation and realise common development and prosperity."     
Poland is the biggest nation in Eastern Europe in terms of population, economic volume and territory. Xi reached an agreement with his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda to promote economic ties within China's Belt and Road  Initiative and Poland's Amber Road framework.
NAVIGATING CHINA'S B&R WITH WARY PARTNERS: The Belt and Road Initiative involving over 60 countries and several international organisations offers unprecedented opportunities but also big challenges. China's ancient 2,000-year-old Silk Road was a critical network of trade routes that promoted economic, political and cultural exchanges among Asia, Africa and Europe. The focus on economic interest was pivotal while politics and cultural links followed as natural corollaries.
Ostensibly, the focus of the Belt and Road Initiative and the 21st century Maritime Silk Road is the same but the complexities of modern politics and the gamesmanship of the big powers are creating weariness amongst the participating nations. However, with the prospects of favourable economic fallouts being offered with newly-built and upgraded infrastructure, facilitating the flow of trade, investment, culture and ideas and shared economic growth, a perceptible change in confidence is discernible.
There appears to be some genuine reasons for this change of heart in some countries along the ancient Chinese Silk Road. For example, according to a New York Times report in June, those countries faced an uphill task in developing closer economic ties with the European Union (EU) and they are now alarmed that the American-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement would effectively favour Malaysia and Vietnam. This may also be tilting their decisions.
China has a comparative advantage compared to its adversaries in Asia and in the West. In a Project Syndicate article distributed earlier in July, two distinguished Chinese experts in a joint article frankly admitted: "…it will not be smooth sailing. Like any cross-border initiative, the 'one-belt-one-road' initiative will require wise diplomacy to manage relationship with diverse countries and careful planning to scale up effectively."
Focusing on the menace of all-embracing global corruption, they strongly warned: "There can be no corruption, which not only hurt the 'one-belt-one road' initiative, but would also undermine China's ability to pursue other cross-border initiatives in the future."
Kazakhstan has too shown interest in developing closer ties with China but so far has only limited Chinese investment. However, it is closely watching the situation before putting all its eggs in a single basket. Likewise, Kyrgyzstan has lately been pursuing warmer relations with Russia in an apparent bid to balance its ties with China. Such weariness may have slowed down Beijing's efforts to promote ties, but informed analysts suggest that the Chinese pragmatism and patience is likely to win the day.  
MENTAL BLOCKS AND PARTISAN POLITICS ALSO HELPING: A frustrated Turkey had earlier decided to jointly manufacture a sophisticated missile defence system with China much to the chagrin of its NATO allies. However, it was subsequently forced to abandon the deal rather abruptly sometime ago facing tough opposition from the NATO allies, especially the Pentagon.
A New York Times story by Keith Bradsher says, the $3.4 billion missile plan intended to provide the Turkey's military more power and scope to export missiles.  With the missile deal, Ankara was actually turning towards Beijing partly to reduce its reliance on NATO. Bradsher quoted Turkey's defence undersecretary Ismail Demir as saying: "Our national interest and NATO may not be the same for some actions."
NATO's main objection was to Ankara's partnering with a Chinese state-owned company. The West feared a loss of military secrets if Chinese technology were incorporated into Turkey's air defence systems. In addition, the company involved with the missile deal, China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation, was accused by the US of providing ballistic missile technology to Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and Syria and that it was the target of Western sanctions. So the new joint venture also ran the risk of coming under sanctions.
China's close ties with Russia mattered too and Turkey distrusted Russia because of its military intervention in Syria and its role in Ukraine. The NYT report pointed out that Turkey became a traditional ally of the US since it sent a large contingent of troops to fight North Korea and China during the Korean War in mid-20th century. However, Ankara's deep faith in the US and the West was jolted when its application for EU membership was kept in abeyance for decades.
Things are now changing fast. Even before the attempted military coup earlier this month, Turkey's policy towards Moscow underwent a sudden change. Turkey's President offered unconditional apology to his Russian counterpart and offered to normalise relations. Besides, its policy towards Syria too is undergoing radical changes. These are likely to have a bearing on its China policy.  
Turkey's businessmen and exporters are concerned that it is not part of the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the volatility of problems in the Arab world are pushing Turkey to have other alternatives. As a major country in the region, Ankara has a major role to play and the changing geopolitical conundrum is seemingly prompting it to readjust its policy decisions realistically.    
Turkey's total trade volume with China (over $25 billion pa) is heavily in favour of China. Companies are interested to buy goods because of cost. However, industrialists and importers say any threat for the country's manufacturing sector has to be transformed into an opportunity.
At one stage in the past the Sino-Turkey ties suffered strains over the Chinese persecution of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang province while Ankara championed the Uighur Muslim cause. But this has changed as President Erdogan is giving preference to Turkey's ties with China and its policies are undergoing changes. The NYT story corroborated this and said nationalistic Turkish groups like Anatolia Youth (previously outspoken about Uighur) have softened their stance on China. In fact, perceptible changes in the global geopolitical complexities seem to be helping China, at least, for now.
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