China's soybean glut could defeat US export hopes after trade thaw

SINGAPORE/BEIJING, Nov 12 (Reuters): China is grappling with a glut of soybeans after months of record imports, curbing prospects for US exports despite a recent trade truce that Washington said includes a pledge by Beijing to resume heavy purchases.
Traders and analysts warn that vast stockpiles at ports and in state reserves, coupled with weak crush margins, limit Beijing's appetite for further purchases.
"State firms may be waiting for margins to recover before making large-scale purchases," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting. "Even with tariff waivers, margins remain negative and Brazilian beans are still cheaper."
After President Donald Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month officials in Washington said China had agreed to buy 12 million tons of US soybeans by year-end and 25 million tons in each of the next three years.
China has not publicly committed to making purchases, although it suspended retaliatory tariffs on US imports,
while state buyer COFCO has booked only a few cargoes for December and January shipment, traders and analysts say.
Chinese buyers sharply boosted soybean purchases from South America earlier this year, while shunning those from the United States, fearing a shortfall if the trade war with Washington dragged on, leading to oversupply.