Closer China-Taiwan ties: A US nightmare?

China and Taiwan   held on February 11 their     first-ever   'historic' talks since they   split six decades ago. The talks are expected to produce   some concrete results for easing the stand-off   between the two sides   since the end of   the civil war in 1949. Chiang Kai-Shek and his nationalist Kuomintang party (KMT)     fled to China's Taiwan, an island, upon being defeated by Mao's Communist surge in 1949.  KMT ruled Taiwan    from 1949 to 2000, and they believed that the island would eventually be reunited with the mainland.  
But with the passage of time, an anti-reunification sentiment had eventually begun to take root in the predominantly ethnic Taiwanese, mainly because of the KMT's discriminatory behaviour towards them, and with the advent of their Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party in 1986.  During his presidency from 2000 to 2008, the Democratic Progressive Party leader Chen Shui Bian envisioned an independent   Taiwan,    which   would be separated from the mainland China's dominance.    He   emphasised Taiwanese   sovereignty as the most priority issue on the party's political agenda.
 Taiwan's relations with mainland   China have largely been eased   with the KMT's return to power in Taiwan in 2008. The uninterrupted efforts by President Ma Ying-Jeou, who   has long been backing Taiwan's  unification with the  mainland  for a  long time,     have    resulted  in the  February 11   China-Taiwan  talks.    The meeting is a landmark event in cross-strait relations   between the two sides.
Taiwan is focused on securing economic benefits and security assurances rather than   immediate   unification with the mainland.   Most of the Taiwanese want to improve   their   relations with China for improving business interest besides being assured of security.
In January-December, 2013, trade volume between mainland China and Taiwan reached US$ 197.28 billion from US$ 102 billion in 2007 as per the report of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China. Taiwan is now China's seventh-largest trading partner and fifth-largest source of import. In 2009, Taiwan opened up one hundred of its industries to mainland investments.   
China and Taiwan have agreed on allowing banks, insurances and   other financial services on both sides' markets. President Ma Ying-Jeo of Taiwan has called for further development of cultural and educational exchanges with China through continuing the    conciliatory approach   to   the mainland.
Moreover, Taiwan's   geographical location   plays a significant strategic role     for  China   in  undermining   US  maritime  dominance and  its  naval  base   establishments in Southeast  Asia  and the Pacific  region.   China has now   about 300-400 missiles, having the range of 120 nautical miles, facing Taiwan, in order to counter any potential threat posed by the US. Besides, it has 60 to 70 submarines in the area and strong air defence forces.   
The geographical   location of Taiwan entices  the US  to make it a strategic partner in order to defend  its   strategic interests vis-à-vis  China.  During the Cold War  period,  the US  and  Taiwan  agreed on  'Taiwan Relations Act',  mainly to serve two purposes:  first, combating the rise of communism and expediting aid in the spread of globalisation and capitalism; secondly, the Act declared that if any outside nation attacked Taiwan, the US should come to its defence.  Even though the Act  had  lost  some  of  its   relevance   with the decline  of  Cold War  in the 1990s,   maintaining    amicable ties  with the Taiwanese  island   has  hitherto been a strategic necessity  for  the US  with a view to keeping  its  influence  unharmed in  Southeast Asia  and the Pacific region    and   defending   its     allies - Japan,  South Korea and  the  Philippines. America's   Taiwan policy  has long been  emphasising   Taiwanese  independence  as the US  fears about  the possibility  that the unification  of   Taiwan  would  force  American  interests  to  fall   into  the hands  of  the  Chinese  Communists.  
China,  which   has improved its relations with Taiwan  over the past years  and wants  to keep the island  under its jurisdiction,   has  already  warned that   it    will react   with its  nuclear  weapons  if  any  intervention is made  by  the US in   China-Taiwan  internal affairs and  if  the US    pursues  further  attempts  at provoking  Taiwanese independence.
One might say that the situation   would make the US either lose, to a significant extent, its strategic interests in the region or take it to a military confrontation with China that would result in a major war.   
The writer is a student of the Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka. tanbirarman30@gmail.com