Coming apart BRIC by brick

It had been touted as the next big economic block, bringing together emerging and developed economies. Beyond the razzmatazz and announcement of a bank someone has huffing and puffing and is succeeding in blowing the house (read block) down.
The heady promise of Brazil has stagnated into recession. Russia is between a rock and a hard place what with the sanctions biting deep, oil prices in a tailspin and having to offload foreign reserves in trying to stay afloat. China too, is stuttering; its growth slowing down, shares in a tizzy and it too is having to sell foreign currency. And for all the positive aggressiveness of the charismatic Narendra Modi India's climb to a major economy is stuck in the rut to the extent that Modi has backtracked on major reform in the land sector. That too despite a hotline being established between Mr. Modi and Mr. Obama and the first road show led by an Indian Prime Minister.
The possibility of chance in all four cases is remote. No action occurs without an opposite reaction. Except that the reaction is not coming from any obvious source. Once again, the powers that be are successfully preventing a second major grouping from establishing itself. Brazil has an added political wrangle to boot. Nor should it have come as a surprise. From the World Cup to the Olympics Brazilians have been moaning about so much money spent on sport when investment was required elsewhere. And while national policies are not the remit of the general citizen in a democracy voters never really get it wrong.
The inter-trade between the four is also going South. Brazil, so dependent on export of commodities to China see prospects fast becoming bleak. The low oil prices are also punching holes. Russia for so long a major supplier of arms now has the Modinomic theory of 'make in India' taking the bulk out of the value chain. India wants FDI but there is the not small issue of the three others baulked get in action that may hit job prospects. With sanctions on Iran now set to be lifted investors have new pastures to explore.
Mr. Modi may well have to reconsider his options and road show schedule. Indeed he may even have to eat humble pie and explain to his electorate that the golden days will need some more time when the world is a more settled place. Mr. Putin has already slowed the adventure in Ukraine and the economic turmoil may just be the face saving withdrawal he has been seeking. China will bounce back and pull Brazil with it. It is the timing that may be crucial in all this.
In short-term micro economics Russia's billion dollar loan to Bangladesh to buy helicopters can be seen as savings for a rainy day. Something Mr. Modi might consider himself by turning a blind eye to cattle that 'stray' across the borders. Garment's exports to China and Japan have hit the double digit growth and that supports Bangladesh and the two of them.
It could well be that the smaller economies may well be the buffers desperately needed in such times.
(The writer may be reached at mahmudrahman@gmail.com)