Congress in tight corner

As the general elections in India are just knocking on the door, impression is gaining ground that the ruling Congress is heading for a miserable performance. Even though the Congress leadership - especially the party's vice-president Rahul Gandhi - is trying to put up a brave face, the formidable party seems to be on a slippery ground after being in power for two consecutive terms. Most surveys predict a disappointing outcome in the polls for the party that spearheaded the movement of Indian independence. Rahul Gandhi has brushed aside such assessment as "baseless" and says that his party would do well in the balloting that start from April 07 and will continue till mid-May.
Some defections from the party indicate that it is clearly losing ground. The changing of side by reputed journalist and former Congress MP M.J. Akbar, also known as a friend of late Prime Minister Rajib Gandhi, is a case in point. He has joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) abandoning the party he represented in parliament for two terms from his native Bihar state.  True, defections are taking place in other parties as well, but what is clearly discernible is the declining trend in the Congress that faces an uphill task in retaining power.
Earlier, Congress was  badly disturbed by the outcome of the election in several state assemblies in which the party had been routed. The polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajstahan, Chhatishgarh, Mizoram and important Delhi were seen as a dress-rehearsal for the coming national voting and the outcome reinforces the impression that the main opposition BJP's  prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi stands a clear chance of becoming the next leader of the country unless the fortune plays a miracle. Despite his tainted image as a "communal" politician, who is accused of masterminding the killings of the minorities in his Gujarat state in 2002, Modi appears to be making steady progress towards the goal of prime ministership. On the other hand, Congress did not announce any prime ministerial candidate, although it is believed that the scion of the famous Nehru-Gandhi family, Rahul Gandhi, would be picked up for that position.
The United progressive Alliance (UPA) government, led by the Congress, looks to be  in a difficult situation as far as its chances of retaining power is concerned. Its slim chances notwithstanding, the return of the party to power can not be fully ruled out because of the complex coalition culture of Indian politics.  
In the Vidhan Sabha polls, the BJP retained power in its two key bastions - Madhya Pradesh and Rajsthan - but what came as a shot in its arms is the increase it made in terms of seats in the two state assemblies. The Congress is nowhere near the BJP, which has scored a near landslide. However, all eyes were focused on Delhi where the ruling Congress was routed as it finished a distant third - a result few could forecast. The BJP here emerged as the largest party even though it fell short of absolute majority. But the stunning performance in Delhi came from the newly floated Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which came as a very close second of the BJP. What is more remarkable is that its leader Arvind Khijerwal defeated chief minister Sheila Dixit by a handsome margin ending her and her party's long rule of Delhi. The AAP was born hardly a year ago against the backdrop of an anti-graft movement by elderly Gandhian Anna Hazare. Khijerwal, a close associate of Hazare, later chose to float the political party. However, the AAP quit the government after being at the helm for just 49 days, charging that it faced obstacles from both the Congress and BJP in implementing its electoral pledges like the anti-graft legislation. It is now preparing for the national elections.
The key reason for decrease in Congress's popularity is the growing dissatisfaction among the people against the political high-ups at the centre, whose current term is marked by a string of corruption-related scandals. India's economy is also not performing well in recent times.
The Congress and other secular parties consider the choice of Modi as the prime minister of India by the BJP as a "wrong decision" since he is incapable of uniting the vast country of different religions and races. In his recent speeches, Modi is stressing on Hindu-Muslim unity. He is otherwise an able chief minister, who has taken his party to power in Gujarat for three successive terms.
In 2009, Congress bagged 206 seats in the Loksobha  and succeeded in heading a government with the support of the allies. This time, some reports and surveys say that its tally may come down to 100 and worse, even further down. Congress says that such views are deliberate propaganda to belittle the "great party", but most opinion polls tend to agree with the assessment. However, which party would form the government after the polls remains a complex question since the loss for the Congress is not necessarily a gain for the BJP which, of course, is the forerunner.
A number of smaller and regional parties, which wields considerable influence in different states, may be a big factor and their influential leaders also stand a chance to become the prime minister because of the coalition culture of the Indian political scene. The BJP is expected to emerge as the largest group in parliament, but whether it would be able to garner support of 272 members with its allies is very much doubtful. The smaller parties and their leaders would come into play in such events as deciding factors.
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