Cooler May could rescue Russian wheat crop after record-hot April

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 3 (Reuters): Global wheat prices earlier this week retreated from multi-month highs as Russia's parched crop was finally due for some rain, but those rains were somewhat dismal and the forecast is dry again, threatening to curb the top exporter's harvest.
Average-to-cool temperatures are expected for southern Russia in the first half of May following record April warmth, and the cooldown could be key in avoiding significant crop losses amid an unusually dry spring.
Southern Russia, which grows more than 30% of the country's annual wheat crop, experienced its driest April in a decade as precipitation amounted to just a quarter of the month's normal. Temperatures were likely record for April, nearly 10 degrees Fahrenheit (5.4 degrees Celsius) above average.
Such a dry and warm April combination has not been observed in southern Russia in at least three decades. The closest instance was 2012, when Russia's all-wheat yield notched its worst relative performance of the post-Soviet era.
Dryness may continue for southern Russia as weather models on Thursday pegged May rainfall at about two-thirds of normal by mid-month, but average or below-average temperatures should prevail. Russia's best overall wheat yields generally occur amid cooler Mays in the south, sometimes offsetting moisture deficits.
Another potential saving grace for southern Russian crops is well above-average soil moisture so far this year. Soil moisture is also solid in regions that grow spring wheat, which makes up about 27% of Russia's total wheat harvest. July is the critical period for that crop to maximize yield. The Dow gained more than eight-tenths of a percent, the S&P 500 climbed nine-tenths and the Nasdaq added 1.5%.
Russian agricultural consultancy Sovecon two weeks ago estimated the 2024 wheat crop at 93 million metric tons, close to last year's levels, and other analysts hold a similar view. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will provide its first official forecast next Friday. Crop losses in Russia could be a boon for other global wheat suppliers, though alarms are not yet sounding as Russia has recently been exporting record volumes. Russia has doubled its wheat crop over the last 20 years and is now responsible for a fifth or more of all wheat exports.