Cotton-production estimate may be lowered by US
Monday, 9 November 2009
NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Bloomberg): Cotton output in the US, the largest cotton exporter, probably will be less than forecast in October after excess rain last month threatened crops in the most-productive growing regions, analysts said.
The US Department of Agriculture's forecast may fall 2.3 per cent on November 10 to 12.7 million bales for the 12 months through July, based on the average projection of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Last month, the USDA estimated output at 13 million bales.
The decline is "mainly because of wet weather in the Delta states," Carl Anderson, a cotton economist and professor emeritus at Texas A&M University in College Station, said by e- mail. "Boll rot and seed sprouting in open bolls reduces yield."
Cotton futures have climbed 38 per cent this year on concern US output may decline. Futures for December delivery slid 0.7 cent, or 1 per cent, to 67.41 cents a pound Thursday on ICE Futures US in New York.
Excess rain threatens to damage unharvested cotton in open pods, or bolls, leaving the fiber exposed to moisture. Bolls were open on 92 per cent of plants in the week ended November 1, up from 91 per cent a week earlier, the USDA said on November 2.
The Mississippi Delta region, which includes Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana, had "extremely heavy" rainfall last month, according to Dale Mohler, a senior meteorologist for AccuWeather Inc's Web site.
The US Department of Agriculture's forecast may fall 2.3 per cent on November 10 to 12.7 million bales for the 12 months through July, based on the average projection of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Last month, the USDA estimated output at 13 million bales.
The decline is "mainly because of wet weather in the Delta states," Carl Anderson, a cotton economist and professor emeritus at Texas A&M University in College Station, said by e- mail. "Boll rot and seed sprouting in open bolls reduces yield."
Cotton futures have climbed 38 per cent this year on concern US output may decline. Futures for December delivery slid 0.7 cent, or 1 per cent, to 67.41 cents a pound Thursday on ICE Futures US in New York.
Excess rain threatens to damage unharvested cotton in open pods, or bolls, leaving the fiber exposed to moisture. Bolls were open on 92 per cent of plants in the week ended November 1, up from 91 per cent a week earlier, the USDA said on November 2.
The Mississippi Delta region, which includes Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana, had "extremely heavy" rainfall last month, according to Dale Mohler, a senior meteorologist for AccuWeather Inc's Web site.