Countries 'close to agreeing' necessary greenhouse gas cuts
Wednesday, 9 December 2009
Fiona Harvey
The world is "within closing distance" of agreeing cuts in greenhouse gases that would satisfy scientific demands, according to a new analysis.
Officials from the governments of more than 190 countries arrived at the talks last weekend with the aim of forging a new global deal on climate change.
They will be joined by world leaders at the end of this week. Last Friday President Barack Obama of the US strongly boosted the prospects for a deal by shifting the date of his arrival at the talks from the middle to the end, when leaders will try to sign an agreement.
In an analysis published the other day, Lord Stern, the influential UK government adviser and economist, said that the pledges on greenhouse gases tabled by governments would be almost enough to reduce emissions to levels that would hold global temperature rises to no more than two degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels.
That is the target of the Copenhagen talks, and is the temperature rise regarded by scientists as broadly the limit of safety, beyond which some of the effects of climate change would become irreversible and catastrophic.
The pledges tabled by governments, both developed and developing, would reduce annual emissions to about 46bn tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2020, according to the analysis. To reach the level that is required to hold temperatures to two degrees, emissions should be no more than 44bn tonnes by that date.
"There is still a gap of a few billion tonnes," said Lord Stern. "But if countries push hard they can do it." This year's emissions are likely to be about 47bn tonnes, instead of the 50bn tonnes expected, because of the recession.
But Lord Stern said that they could be expected to rebound as the economy picks up.
With emissions pledges in from almost all of the major emitters, the diplomatic effort has moved on to trying to persuade countries to go further. The EU has tried to draw the US into putting pressure on Canada to strengthen its target, which is widely regarded as too low.
The EU is focusing on Russia, which has set a target that would allow it to increase its emissions significantly.
There are signs that some key countries could be willing to push up their targets.
Under syndication arrangement
with FE
The world is "within closing distance" of agreeing cuts in greenhouse gases that would satisfy scientific demands, according to a new analysis.
Officials from the governments of more than 190 countries arrived at the talks last weekend with the aim of forging a new global deal on climate change.
They will be joined by world leaders at the end of this week. Last Friday President Barack Obama of the US strongly boosted the prospects for a deal by shifting the date of his arrival at the talks from the middle to the end, when leaders will try to sign an agreement.
In an analysis published the other day, Lord Stern, the influential UK government adviser and economist, said that the pledges on greenhouse gases tabled by governments would be almost enough to reduce emissions to levels that would hold global temperature rises to no more than two degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels.
That is the target of the Copenhagen talks, and is the temperature rise regarded by scientists as broadly the limit of safety, beyond which some of the effects of climate change would become irreversible and catastrophic.
The pledges tabled by governments, both developed and developing, would reduce annual emissions to about 46bn tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2020, according to the analysis. To reach the level that is required to hold temperatures to two degrees, emissions should be no more than 44bn tonnes by that date.
"There is still a gap of a few billion tonnes," said Lord Stern. "But if countries push hard they can do it." This year's emissions are likely to be about 47bn tonnes, instead of the 50bn tonnes expected, because of the recession.
But Lord Stern said that they could be expected to rebound as the economy picks up.
With emissions pledges in from almost all of the major emitters, the diplomatic effort has moved on to trying to persuade countries to go further. The EU has tried to draw the US into putting pressure on Canada to strengthen its target, which is widely regarded as too low.
The EU is focusing on Russia, which has set a target that would allow it to increase its emissions significantly.
There are signs that some key countries could be willing to push up their targets.
Under syndication arrangement
with FE