Country bleeds, so does the economy

The country's economy is now badly battered. Prolonged blockades and frequent hartals have continued to disrupt the supply-chain of goods and commodities.
As a consequence, overall businesses have severely been affected. The government's efforts for raising revenue earnings face severe challenges.  
So far, the nation, according to an estimate by a leading chamber body of the country's businesses, has lost a staggering US$10 billion directly in the forms of physical damage, lost production and income and profit earnings since the 20-party Alliance launched its non-stop blockade on January 06.
Desperate businesspeople took to the streets all over the country this week, denouncing the ongoing violence that claimed so many precious lives and inflicted serious damage on the economy in just over a month.
They formed human chains and staged sit-ins in the capital and elsewhere simultaneously for 15 minutes, seeking an immediate end to the crisis to help save the economy. They sang the national anthem, waved the national flag and chanted a slogan "Save the Country, Save the Economy".
With the violence continuing unabated, the government is now planning to downscale its 7.3 per cent projected economic growth rate for the current fiscal year (FY). Concern was raised over the growth and revenue collection targets in the current fiscal. The revised budget for FY 2014-15 is now under preparation while efforts for giving a shape to the next year's budget are on, amid otherwise difficult circumstances.
Every day, the economy is losing about Tk 22.8 billion due to the blockades and the strikes alone. The amount might stand at Tk 25 billion if the daily loss is calculated taking into account the loss at 25 per cent of the total industrial production, according to estimates of various business bodies.
Garment sector, whose contribution stands at 81 per cent of the country's total export earnings and 15 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP), have lost Tk 252.billion just in one month.
As exports and local sales nosedived, the jute sector has also incurred a loss of Tk 5.0 billion. Factories were forced to cut production, up to 30 per cent during the same period.
Stock markets have also been hit, with the key index on the Dhaka Stock Exchange falling below 4,700-mark for the first time in the last five months. The daily turnover has slipped to one-month low.
The loss in the tanneries stands at Tk 4.59 billion due to damage of the raw hides and skins and failure to meet export deadline and to bring chemicals from ports and additional transport costs.
During the same period, reports say, transport sector counted a loss of Tk 90 billion, agriculture, Tk. 86.46 billion, real estate, Tk 75 billion and tourism ,Tk 63 billion. Ports and bridges lost Tk 9.92 billion, ceramics, Tk 6.0 billion, poultry, Tk 5.48 billion, insurance, Tk 4.50 billion and frozen foods, Tk 2.80 billion.
Small businesses, handlooms and boutiques which are scattered across the country but rely on the capital and other major cities to buy and sell their products have also been counting considerable losses.
Food inflation moved up last month riding on the trend of the past seven months, with the disruption in the supply-chain causing prices to go up amid rise of wastage at the farm level as well as transport cost.
Remittance, which plays a key role in reducing the overall incidence of poverty in the country as well as helping it maintain a healthy balance of payments (BoP) situation, also went down 2.05 per cent last month on a year-on-year basis.
On the whole, the blockade and violence have badly hit farm incomes, disrupted inter-district road and rail transport, pushed up food inflation, weakened buyer confidence on the exporters' ability to deliver in time and impaired investors and consumers' confidence.
With most of the sectors bearing the brunt of the turmoil, the economy has already counted over Tk 750 billion in losses since the 20-party Alliance launched the non-stop blockade, claim the businesses.
If this situation fails to improve, they want the government to ban shutdowns and blockades. They also demanded waiver of the interest accruals on the outstanding amount of bank loans of the affected industries and also the loans, to be rescheduled. Otherwise, their survival would be at stake, they strongly feel.
On its part, the BNP-led Alliance claimed that the business community's message was not reaching the government because of the partisan stance of the leaders of a number of trade promotion organisations (TPOs), particularly their apex trade body. The present political crisis and instability arose out of the government's wrong decisions, it alleged.
Nationwide shutdowns and blockades in six months prior to the January 05 election last year cost the transport, garment, agriculture and tourism sectors Tk 490.17 billion, according to the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). The think-tank estimates that a day's shutdown shaves around 0.9 per cent off the GDP a year at the market price.
The losses incurred otherwise from the blockade, as the economists suggest, could be made up only if normalcy returned quickly. But the income loss of the lower income people will become permanent if the unrest lingers on. The re-emergence of political turmoil did not bode well for the country's economy.
Is there no light at the end of the tunnel? Undeniably, human sufferings have reached an intolerable level. The poor are the worst hit ones. Helpless profiles of the jobless day-labourers demonstrate the real picture of their vulnerable position.
One expects that good sense would ultimately prevail upon the feuding players in the country's polity. An amicable settlement should hopefully come out after a fruitful dialogue takes place among all concerned.                       szkhan@dhaka.net