Crimea issue: Is another Cold War imminent?

The outcome of referendum on Crimea was a foregone conclusion. Predictably voters voted overwhelmingly in favour of joining Russia. Polls held amid threats of sanctions by the western world and with direct Russian backing, were discarded as illegal by the world except Russia. But interestingly, Crimea has become a part of Russia on the merit (?) of such a referendum widely branded as illegitimate. The western world or powers that be, had been screaming but the Russian caravan galloped away peacefully and without any significant challenge.
To put the last nail in the coffin, President Putin signed on Tuesday a bill incorporating Crimea in the Russian Federation. It was later approved by the Russian parliament. Crimea, with its chequered history, came back to where it originally belonged - a part of Russia, successor to the Soviet Union.
A vast majority of Crimeans are Russian-speaking and according to some demographic accounts of decade ago, they accounted for 58 per cent of the total population. The present figure must be higher. On the other hand, Ukrainians constitute 25 per cent of the total population and Tartars for another 12 per cent. The Tartars boycotted the polls. If they had not, they would have cast their votes against the Russian plan. Tartars are still haunted by the memories of 1944, when they were ordered out of Crimea by Stalin. Around 200,000 Tartars were pushed out of the country and later majority of them died of hunger and subsequent ailments. Tartars call it genocide.
But whether or not the overall situation in Crimea allowed any opportunity to oppose the Russian move, it is of very little relevance to what transpired later. It is too well-known to elaborate that the main issue is not Crimea's referendum, but Ukraine's future. Also well-known was the fact that all the threats and warnings of the western powers could not stop the referendum from being held, nor had the western powers ever thought it would.
Now, the United States and some West European countries have voiced their opposition to Russia's role on the Ukraine issue. A lot of dust has already been kicked off discussing the probable measures that could be undertaken by these powers. But the fact remains that in the short run, the US and its allies have very few options.
Russia is in distinct advantage due to its geographical location and its naval bases in Crimea. The US, let alone the European Union, can hardly match Russia's military might in the region. On the economic front, Germany has about six thousand investment projects (big and small) in Russia and any untoward move on Germany's part will only endanger the future of these investments.  To top it all, 30 per cent of Europe's daily consumption of natural gas comes from Russia, nearly half of which is routed through Ukraine. All these facts pinpoint a phenomenon which confirms that Europe can hardly afford a large-scale war with Russia. This, although temporarily, led to some differences between the US and Europe in general and Germany in particular. China sided with Russia on this issue, but it abstained from voting in the Security Council.
While the present scenario clearly indicates a position of advantage for the Russians, it has also brought to the fore other questions. First, what is the western world going to do next? Second, will Russia be able to hold on to its present stance for a mid or long-term duration? Actions taken by the western world so far indicate that their immediate and principal consideration is to protect Ukraine's sovereignty. Now, whether Russia advances further towards the eastern Ukraine on the plea of protecting the rights of Russian-speaking population there, is a matter being closely watched by the world. It seems highly unlikely that Russia will proceed further and occupy part of Ukraine. But what is obvious is that by repeatedly voicing the rights of the Russian-speaking people of Ukraine, President Putin is actually trying to keep the pressure on for the western world. But things will change, should Russia, for some reason or the other, decide to intervene in other regions of Ukraine.
As of now, the USA and the European Union have only been threatening to impose economic sanctions, meaning that they want to keep themselves restricted to the economic front only at least for the time being. They are confident, this is how Russia could be brought to the negotiation table and eventually an understanding can be reached. Russia is already under pressure since the Ukraine crisis surfaced. According to an account, western investors have withdrawn investment worth US$ 33 billion from the Russian stock market during the last two months. The amount is likely to rise further and hit 55 billion mark by the end of March. Value of Russian currency Ruble is already falling. Russia's export to Europe accounts for nearly 15 per cent of her GDP and any sanctions imposed by Europe will have far-reaching impact on the Russian economy.
At the moment, both Russia and the western world are busy working out their gains and losses. But Putin's actions with respect to Ukraine in general and Crimea in particular, have made the political analysts around the world apprehensive of Russia's future plan. What does Putin have up his sleeves? Since becoming President in 2000, he has been making his intentions clear, covertly and overtly, that he wants to take Russia back to the Soviet Union era. With that end in view, he has, on home front, already brought oil and gas industries under state control and established absolute control over the judiciary and mass media in order to enforce an authoritarian rule. Internationally, through his external and security policy, he aims to foster a strong Russian image worldwide. This is known as Putin Doctrine. It became clear from subsequent course of events that Putin had other intentions. He wants to maintain Russia's supremacy in nuclear warheads and with that end in view, export nuclear technology to countries she considers friendly. Accordingly, he executed nuclear arms and technology deals with Turkey, Iran, Belarus, Bangladesh, India and China. At the moment, attention of the western world centres around the probable steps that Russia may take and possible measures in the long run to confront them.
The Crimea crisis is multi-dimensional. While this writer was giving  finishing touches to this article, another dimension unfolded. Pro-Russian militia has taken over the Ukrainian naval headquarters in Crimea and arrested the Navy chief. Success of preventing Russia from executing its military designs, if any, in the region, will entirely depend on whether the US and its allies are better equipped than Russia in terms of strategy and tactics to bring Russia to the negotiating table. If they are not, one shudders to think, is another Cold War imminent?
The writer is a broadcaster                    and journalist. [email protected]