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Crimea now part of Russia: US and EU in a quandary

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury | Thursday, 20 March 2014


Crimea, the autonomous region of Ukraine, is now part of Russia. President Vladimir Putin of Russia and leaders of Crimea signed a treaty on Tuesday in this regard.
Earlier, the referendum in Crimea took place, much to the delight of Russia and severe dismay and condemnation of the West as well most other nations. This development orchestrated by Moscow and the overwhelmingly ethnic Russian population of Crimea is evidently a step that led to the incorporation of the territory with the Russian Federation. It was a fast-developing situation and Moscow, notwithstanding the worldwide disapproval of its actions in Crimea, was in a hurry to include that region as one of its parts. Things have moved inexorably in the last few days and the referendum on whether Crimea would remain a part of Ukraine or secede from Kiev came as the last nail in the coffin of the Ukraine crisis. After the referendum, Crimea chose to join Russia.
However, this can not be the end of the Ukraine tangle as it is bound to escalate further, if not militarily. The US and EU have condemned the latest development in Crimea although they could hardly influence the situation  except giving threats to the "illegal" referendum. But, they can not be expected to remain inactive following the "independence" of cremia as the first major challenge between the West and Russia in the post-cold era is unlikely to be a cakewalk for Moscow. Russia has definitely scored well so far as far as the "annexation" of Crimea is concerned because of its military might and proximity with that region. But what remains in store is something worth watching in the days ahead.
Earlier, the last-ditch effort by the United States and Russia for a  cessation of the tensions surrounding the Crimea situation, particularly on the referendum there on March 16 failed, and this made it abundantly clear the larger Ukraine problem was fast moving towards a more serious conflict than many had anticipated.
The critically important talks between US secretary of state John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov ended in total frustration with both  accusing each other for the failure of the discussions in London. Lavrov said that they failed to find common ground while Kerry warned that Moscow would have to pay a big price if it had not reversed its position on the referendum in Crimea, which is a part of Ukraine. As the two sides could not come to any understanding on the escalating crisis, fears soared that tensions would further engulf the globe in the coming days unless the growing signs of hostilities are effectively checked.
The developments that followed the change of guards in Ukraine led to a very uneasy situation bringing Russia almost to head-on-collision with the West -- the European Union and the United States. With the fall of the Kiev government, Crimea showed defiance to the new pro-West authority in the federal government and sided with the Kremlin. This came as a big problem for the new Ukraine government and also for the West, which said Moscow was wrong by encouraging Crimea for the defiance against the Keiv government. But Russia did not stop there and the local parliament was understandably encouraged by Moscow to seek a referendum in Crimea on whether the region would remain with Ukraine or join the Russian federation. It could have been foretold that the overwhelming majority of the people in Crimea would opt to join Russia and this did happen on the March 16 referendum. This was described by the West as effective annexation of the region by Moscow.
Russia, apparently, is not bothered by such reactions and is working on its own agenda. Evidently, Moscow is concerned with its political and military interest which it considers important following the changes in Ukraine that have gone against Russian interest. Understandably, Moscow would not relish a pro-West authority in Kiev and it has seized the opportunity that existed in Crimea to take things in its favour.
Now that the Russian plan has materialised, what the can the US and EU do effectively to reverse the situation? They have taken a series of decisions including sanctions and travel ban on several Russian and Ukraine key figures who were responsible for the current trouble in Ukraine. But Moscow earlier snubbed such steps as of no consequences and went ahead with its plans. People all over the world are curious to see how things would unfold in Crimea with the West helplessly watching the "annexation", and the Kiev government in a state of fix as all its major establishments including military bases are located in Crimea. Russian troops in big number are there, as reports say. What is going to happen to the federal government's functioning in Crimea when the local parliament says it is independent of Kiev and is keen to join the Russian federation?
This no doubt is a too complex a scenario. The US and the European leaders are faced with big challenges on how to go about. They are planning to meet, but the question remains whether they would be able to reverse the inclusion of Crimea into the Russian federation. As things stand now, it looks highly unlikely, and hence there are reasons to be worried over the future developments.
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