Dark, threatening war clouds dissipate

The procedural vote taken in the US Senate on September 10 on the Republican resolution disapproving the Iran nuclear deal fell two votes short of the 60 needed for a 2/3rd majority. If the resolution had passed by that majority, it would have been immune from Democratic filibustering to stop it from being sent to the White House to force the President to veto it to sign the Iran nuclear deal. Now the President can sign the deal without the need to veto any Congress resolution that in plain terms is a defeat for the Republicans and victory for the President. [Filibustering is a legislative process present only in the United States that allows one or more opposition members to take the floor to delay or stop a vote on a bill or a resolution.]
The failure in Thursday's (September 10) procedural vote notwithstanding, the Republicans have not yet admitted failure. Senate Majority Leader Senator Mitch McConnell has stated that he would force a second procedural vote on the disapproval of the bill. He hopes to get, in the meanwhile, the two extra votes, and if that did not happen, to force the Democrats to once again expose their stand against Israel's interests, a very serious matter for national-level politicians in the United States. But such a second procedural vote is very unlikely as no Democrats, except the four who voted with the Republicans in the September 10 Senate vote, are likely to change their minds. Hence, Senator McConnell's statement to this effect underlines that he and the Republicans have other interests in mind.
Among these interests, the first and the foremost one is to demonstrate the support of the Republican Senators individually and that of the Republican Party collectively to Israel. While the Republicans in Congress were engaged in efforts to make it impossible for the President to sign the deal without using his veto power over the last couple of months since the Iran deal was signed on July 14, planeloads of Members of the Congress were flown to Israel by Israeli lobbies in the United States. Israel's Prime Minister and his Government openly encouraged them and lobbied with them to stop the deal. According to the New York Times (NYT), the failure of the procedural vote "exposed the diminishing power of the Israeli lobbying force that spent tens of millions of dollars to prevent the accord."
The Republicans in Senate without a single exception voted for the disapproval vote that was expected. The pressure of the Israeli lobbies in the United States as well as the Israeli Government was primarily on the Democrats. Only four Democratic Senators were eventually swayed to vote with the Republicans. Nevertheless, it was interesting to observe that many Democrats who did not vote for the disapproval resolution and the Republicans who voted for the disapproval resolution were scared to stand against Israel's interests. In fact, much more than what the deal would or would not do to the United States, these Senators on both sides of the aisle were afraid how their vote would be perceived by Israel and the undeniably politically powerful Israeli lobbies in the country. Their concerns were less for their own country and much more for Israel.
It is undoubtedly true that if Iran developed the bomb, it would be very scary for Israel. But this notwithstanding, the Senators who showed their opposition to the Iran deal did not consider the following facts because they were so committed to please Israel. First, in opposing the deal, they have given unequivocal thumbs down to their own elected President telling the world they did not take him seriously. Second, they have backed Israel's desire to force Iran to submission with a war if necessary and did not prefer the diplomatic option. Finally, they have also not considered that the other five countries - United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany - and the UN that signed the deal have all expressed confidence that the Iran Nuclear deal is the best way to stop Iran from building the bomb. In fact, Ambassadors of these countries openly lobbied in the Congress in favour of the deal that was very unusual.
Therefore, the Republicans, with the four Democrats in support, have tried not just to stand against their President and the Democrats but also the rest of the world where the Iran Nuclear deal has been widely welcomed. In fact, even before the resolution on disapproving Iran nuclear deal was defeated in Senate last Thursday, the other powers who had signed the deal gave enough hints to the United States that they would start withdrawing the UN-sponsored economic sanctions against Iran with or without the US becoming a party to the deal. As for a military solution, the question of the US undertaking such an option that Israel wants would be impossible because Russia and China would undoubtedly oppose it. Additionally, a war with Iran without giving diplomacy a chance would, with the adverse consequences of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in perspective, be one that most Americans and the rest of the world would, no doubt, oppose.
Nevertheless, the Republicans think otherwise. In fact, after Thursday's vote, the extreme right conservative Republicans in the Congress, the Tea Party faction, are up against the rest of the party; they are blaming the party leadership for not trying hard enough to stop the deal. In fact, House Speaker John Boehner is under threat now regarding his own position as Speaker for allowing the Iran Nuclear deal to go through. Far from stopping it, the Republicans have failed to force the President to use the veto to let the deal go through. This would have embarrassed him and would also have been a plus point for the Republican party looking forward to the 2016 presidential election.
Thus with Senator McConnell's threat to try the procedural vote once again next week, the Republicans in the House have passed a resolution 245 to 186 after the Democrats had blocked the disapproval resolution blaming that the President did not submit "two confidential documents pertaining to the deal". They are considering taking the President to the court. Clearly, the Republicans, having been beaten in the Congress by the Democrats/White House, are now in some sort of disarray over their next move. These moves are very unlikely to stop the Iran nuclear deal to go through. Nevertheless, it has brought to the surface the ugly nature of US domestic politics. The bipartisanship that President Obama had tried to make the cornerstone of his presidency is now as good as dead.
President Obama has won this current fight with the Republicans in Congress. But he would have to wait to find out whether Iran keeps its part of the deal truthfully and honestly for a place in history. For the world, though, the deal has dissipated dark and threatening war clouds that had been brewing for the last couple of years over Iran's presumed nuclear ambitions. As for Iran, the deal will allow the country the freedom from the economic sanctions; release its huge funds held outside the country and the freedom to sell its oil in the international market - all destined to make it very rich that is as much a big worry for Israel as an Iran in possession of a nuclear bomb.
The writer is a retired Ambassador.
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