Declining growth in agri, industry sectors slowing down GDP

Continued falling rate of growth in agriculture and industry sectors may cause GDP growth to decelerate for the third straight fiscal, Unnayan Onneshan, an independent think-tank, says in its current issue of the Bangladesh Economic Update. Pointing out that the rate of growth in agriculture came down from 5.24 percent in fiscal 2009-10 to 5.13 percent, 3.11 percent and 2.17 percent in 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 respectively, the multidisciplinary research organisation anticipated that the rate might fall as low as 2.09 percent in fiscal 2013-14, if the trend persists. It also observed that the manufacturing sector might see a further decline in rate of growth compared to the preceding year while the business as usual scenario projects a 6.02 percent rise in the current fiscal. The manufacturing sector itself has been undergoing a declining rate of growth since the 2010-11 fiscal, when it was 9.45 percent. The rate decreased to 9.37 percent and 9.34 percent in 2011-12 and 2012-13 respectively. The rate of growth in GDP declined from 6.71 percent in 2010-11 to 6.23 percent in 2011-12 and then to 6.03 percent in 2012-13, and is in danger of falling below the decade’s average of 6.0 percent in 2013-14, the Unnayan Onneshan projected. Referring to the declining trend in growth in agriculture sector, the Unnayan Onneshan attributed this to gradual loss of cultivable land, lack of invention, adoption and dissemination of new technology, and lack of sufficient support for agricultural research and extension, resulting from lack of proper policy support. It pointed out that the falling trend of growth in manufacturing sector can be ascribed to unavailability of infrastructural facilities, recent hiccups in garment sector, constraints originating from limited size of the domestic market, instability in property rights, and missing of institutions. The think tank also urged publication of regular and credible statistics, and points out non-availability of Quantum Index of Industrial Production (QIP) since November, 2013, though the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is supposed to publish this on a monthly basis, according to a news agency.