Destination uncertain

The prospect of holding the forthcoming general election with the participation of all parties appears to be uncertain. The ruling Awami League is preparing itself for the election. They will sell nomination papers from November 10. Their parliamentary board and election conducting committee have already started working.
On the other hand, the opposition 18-Party Alliance, led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has intensified their movement for realising the demand for non-party neutral caretaker government. Their 60-hour hartal, from October 27-29, in which about 20 people lost their lives, has just ended. The opposition is going for another 60-hour hartal from today (Monday). Thereafter, the opposition will go for non-cooperation movement including siege programme.
The dialogue between the government and the opposition is not progressing at all.  A debate is going on between the two sides. They are attacking each other and sticking to their respective positions. The Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) is trying to organise a secretary level dialogue between the Awami League and the BNP.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on October 26 invited Begum Khaleda Zia, the Leader of the Opposition, for dinner and dialogue at the Gono Bhavan on October 28 and also requested her to withdraw the October 27-29 hartal. But Khaleda Zia did not readily accept the invitation on the ground of her hartal programme. She requested the Prime Minister to accept their demand of re-introducing the caretaker system and said she was ready to meet and talk with her after the hartal. Awami League General Secretary is saying that the invitation still stands.
There are many people who do not want that Gono Bhavan be open to the opposition leader. They are of the view that if the Leader of the Opposition wants dialogue, she will have to make a telephone call to Prime Minister.
The opposition is saying that the Prime Minister will have to call Begum Zia again. The diplomats of the western world are making tireless efforts for the dialogue to take place. Before going to Washington, the American Ambassador met the general secretaries generals of the two parties. Behind-the-scene meetings are taking place.
If the BNP does not join the polls, the Awami League will set up an all-party government and go for the polls. But the 18-Party Alliance is desperate to stop this election. The Jatiya Party is undecided about joining the opposition in case election is held without the BNP. If one-sided election fails, the Jatiya Party president will have difficulties.
If the election is held with the participation of all and the BNP wins, he can not face the BNP. Officials, civil society and businessmen are worried about uncertain political situation.
The 18-Party Alliance will plunge into all-out movement after the election schedule is announced. At this stage the BNP has no confidence in dialogue. The Election Commission will be gheraoed after November 07. Thereafter, a five-day hartal may be enforced. The opposition thinks that the government is going for unilateral election. Even if there is a dialogue, there is little chance of its success. The opposition will resist the election through movement. The political dispute may be settled in the streets.
Some top leaders of the Awami League are of the view that election will be held on time and all parties will participate. The Awami League is in favour of dialogue and the BNP may like to join the dialogue. The private sector is taking an initiative for dialogue.
The Prime Minister has requested the BNP  not  to observe hartal during examinations of students. But hartal has already been scheduled.
The Election Commission (EC) has moved away from meeting the representatives of the political parties to discuss pre-election matters. They think that it may be risky to meet them at this stage. The 18-Party  Alliance may not turn up for meeting the Election Commission.
The EC arranged a meeting during last November-December. The Awami League and their allies attended that meeting but the BNP and Jamaat did not come up for the meeting. Currently there are controversies about the Election Commission and therefore, there is little chance of the BNP attending EC  meetings.
The Prime minister said in Gazipur on October 31 that election will be held as per the Constitution which would be free and fair. The Election Commission will conduct the election. She mentioned about her invitation to the Leader of the Opposition who did not agree to withdraw hartal and come to dinner.
Government has taken a hard line. It is making preparations to hold election under an all-party government. Attempts will be made to break up opposition parties and entice away their leaders to join election.
The London-based Economist has said that both the leaders must realise that politics of bickering will not help either the country or serve their own interests. The feud between the two ladies is likely to intensify and may continue for generations as both of them have grounds and reasons to perpetuate their authority in the politics of the country. The telephonic conversation between them was a chance to show a spirit of compromise but they squabbled on irrelevant and contentious issues.
The Acting Secretary-general of the BNP has urged the opposition leaders and activists to launch a decisive movement to force the government to hold the next national election under a non-party government.
The BNP and allies are facing cases. During last 3-day hartal, more than 1000 cases have been filed and about 65,000 people have been accused.
Diplomatic activities centring the election are taking place because we could not solve our problem. The UN has also expressed concern about our election. In any case, the country may be heading for chaos.
The writer is an economist
and columnist.
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