Development in Bangladesh: A demographic perspective

With an estimated population of 160 million in 2011, Bangladesh is the ninth most populous country in the world. With the highest population density in the world (more than 1000 persons per sq km), Bangladesh occupies only 0.03 per cent of global land, whereas it has of provide home for 2.5 per cent of world population. The pattern of population growth in Bangladesh since the beginning of the century is similar to that of the Indian sub-continent as a whole. The population of the country has more than doubled its size, from 55 million in 1961 to 130 million in 2001. The net addition to the country's population during the decade of 1991-2001 was 19 million and the country adds two million people annually. The population of Bangladesh is projected to exceed 223 million by 2051, if net replacement rate (NRR)- 1.0% is reached in 2016, while the population is expected to reach 228 million by 2051 if NRR-1.0% is reached by 2021. These facts, however, conceal the change in demographic scenario that has occurred in recent years. Available evidence strongly suggests that some of the important demographic characteristics of Bangladesh have undergone significant changes over the last two to three decades. Bangladeshi demographic future is mainly determined by the future course of fertility and mortality as migration will not play a significant role in determining rate of population growth. Available evidences strongly indicate that some important demographic characteristics are changing and the pace of fertility transition has been rapid since the mid eighties. On an average, women in Bangladesh now give birth to only 2.7 children as compared to 6.3 children in the mid 1970s. More than 50 per cent of married couples of reproductive age have been protected by contraception now as compared to only 8.0 per cent in the early seventies. Infant mortality rate has come down to 52 per 1000 live-births in 2007 from the level of 87 in 1993-94. The expectation of life at birth for both sexes has increased from about 45 years in the mid 1970s to 66.7 years in 2008. These are some of the notable changes that have occurred in the demographic profile of Bangladesh. It is remarkable that despite adverse socio-economic environment, commendable success in reproductive and child health has been achieved over the period of three decades. With the anticipated gain in longevity and fall in fertility, the country's population is expected increase for several years even after reaching replacement level fertility because of large population momentum built into the young age structure of the population. However, even though there has been substantial reduction in fertility and child mortality, there is little room for complacency. The underlying importance of population issue should not be underestimated since Bangladesh has the highest density in the world. Adolescent fertility is one of the highest in the world where one in three women are either pregnant or already mothers by age 20, and this proportion is not declining over time, By age 19, more than 51% adolescent girls are already mothers and another 7.4% are currently pregnant, indicating that nearly 59% of teenage girls have begun childbearing. The momentum effect of population growth cannot be minimized unless teenage marriage and child birth can be reduced to a considerable extent. The size and growth of population has a strong bearing on the social situation and process of human development and planners and policy makers perceive that there is a serious threat coming up in the way to achieve development goals. Population policies should not have the sole concern of fertility reduction but it is necessary to go beyond family planning. The concerns over national needs for policy formulation for sectors such as labour force, education, health, urbanization, agriculture etc., deserve adequate attention. Now the important questions are: what will be the size of labour force and requirement of new jobs? What will be the expected changes in the age and sex structure of the population? What will be the requirements for educational and health infrastructure? What will be the situation with respect to urbanisation in the near future? Side by side, we have to mobilize social community and people to bring about rapid social changes in attitudes and behaviour as in gender issues, fighting evil customs like early marriage and dowry, eradicating illiteracy, especially among females, improving child survival and the status of women. Bangladesh's demographic future largely depends on how well and when the government can effectively handle such problems. There has to be more and more investment on social overhead capital i.e., on health and education, with emphasis on improving the quality and coverage of health and nutritional services as well as educational infrastructure. One of the main challenges before Bangladesh would be to reduce the problem of under-employment and creation of sufficient employment opportunities for the increasing adult population should be topmost priority. In the coming years there will be an increase in the elderly population both in absolute number and in percentage terms and more and more resources should be invested to meet the needs. of the elderly in terms of housing facilities, health care, financial and social security. This is a abridged version of a write-up by Dr. Abdul Mannan of Bangladesh Institute of Development studies or BIDS, to be published in a forthcoming book, 'Bangladesh at 40: changes and challenges', to be edited by Prof. Abdul Bayes, Dean of Faculty of Business Studies, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka.