Difference in style or substance?
Saturday, 8 November 2008
Najmuddin A Shaikh
Obama is a good listener and observer. Once he is persuaded to recognise that Pakistan does genuinely regard the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban both Afghan and Pakistani as an existential threat to Pakistan itself there will be a greater tempering of actions that can exacerbate the anti-American feeling in Pakistan
And so it has come to pass. The White House will open its doors to an African-American on January 20, 2009, as the 44th President of the United States, a first in that country's history.
Obama will be taking over, in the words of a New York Times article, a nation weary of the past and wary of the future, gloomy about its place in the world, cynical about its government and desperate for some sense of deliverance and in which nearly nine of every 10 think the country is on the wrong track.
Given this backdrop, Obama clearly will regard as his first priority the steps that need to be taken to ease the economic hardship which is now beginning to manifest itself not only in foreclosures on homes that were purchased with sub-prime mortgages but in the announcement of large-scale layoffs and closures of branches by retailers.
Increased unemployment will hit at a time when the debt burden of the average American has pushed many towards bankruptcy - with a consequent decline in consumer spending in an economy which has relied for its growth largely on consumer spending. That there will be greater spending on the reconstruction of the infrastructure in a duplication of the Roosevelt era's remedy for the Great Depression is almost inevitable. But it will have to take account of the enormous public debt burden that has already been created during the last eight years and the burden of the two wars that America is now fighting.
It is doable - at slightly more than USD10.5 trillion the US public debt is about 68 percent of the 14.3 trillion GDP. Many countries have higher public debt to GDP ratios though most such countries also have far better savings rates than the United States. Defence expenditure that consumes a large and growing part of the US budget will also have to be cut.
How to cut monies from the defence budget to finance employment generating public works and to provide relief to home owners threatened with foreclosures is the principal task that Obama and his team will have to work on even as they prepare for the transition. There is talk of Obama proposing that the lame duck congress pass a USD100 billion package of public works and assistance heating oil costs etc. before he assumes office in January.
Perhaps only slightly lower in priority will be the public expectation that in fulfilment of his pledge Obama will move towards winding down the American military presence in Iraq and deciding on a coherent policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan and the elimination of the Al-Qaeda "safe havens". What should one expect?
First, it is clear that unlike the neo-conservative and Cheney-dominated Bush administration, the Obama administration will in large part abandon 'unilateralism' in favour of a more consultative foreign policy. While this will not mean that there will be any diminution in the importance that the "terrorist" threat will have in the formulation of this consultative foreign policy or the degree of attention not all favourable that Pakistan will receive it may well mean the implementation in practice of the anti-terrorism doctrine that prescribes a 15 percent military effort, a 20 percent diplomatic effort and a 65 percent political and economic effort.
In Iraq Obama is unlikely now to insist on completing a withdrawal within 16 months. Instead, he will choose to work with the Iraqi government, whose anxiety over a timetable for withdrawal was clearly articulated during Obama's visit to Iraq, on finalising the Iraqi Parliament's agreement for the Status of Forces Agreement and on an acceptable time frame for American withdrawal.
Obama may even decide, if his military commanders agree, that a larger immediate draw down be affected immediately to permit the movement of troops to Afghanistan which he has repeatedly affirmed should be the main focus.
It is, however, Afghanistan and Pakistan that will be the focus of attention. Much attention has been paid to Obama's campaign statement that he would take out targets in Pakistan if Pakistan was unable or unwilling to do so. This was in fact no more than the public articulation of the policy that the Bush administration was following. There was no reason for us to interpret it otherwise. But we did need to recognise in it the reflection of the distrust that has characterised the so-called Pak-American partnership in the war on terror.
Recent exchanges and the actions that the new government has taken to publicly claim ownership of the campaign against terrorism and extremism and the military actions now going on in Bajaur and Swat have done much to create a sense of confidence that the US and Pakistan are not working at cross purposes.
One can hope that this confidence in Pakistan's intentions will grow even if questions remain about the capacity of the armed forces - trained for regular combat - to conduct anti-insurgency operations.
Obama is a good listener and observer. Once he is persuaded to recognise that Pakistan does genuinely regard the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban both Afghan and Pakistani as an existential threat to Pakistan itself there will be a greater tempering of actions that can exacerbate anti-American feeling in Pakistan and undermine the effort to build public support for the anti-extremism campaign. The more consultative mode that the new administration will adopt should mean that Pakistan's concerns, both internal and external, will be more effectively factored into policy formulation.
This is the time also to pursue with immediate American assistance the economic development that everyone agrees is the best antidote to the lure of the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda for the disaffected and unemployed youth of the Tribal Areas. Obama will not hesitate to use America's military, but he, much more than the Bush administration, will seek other ways of resolving problems.
Obama could well be persuaded if this were to be effectively presented to him that the spending package to alleviate unemployment at home, which he may ask the lame duck congress for, could also include the finalisation of the Lugar-Biden assistance package for Pakistan. Such a step would ensure that pledges in the "Friends of Pakistan" meetings will be substantial even if they are made conditional on the IMF agreement with Pakistan.
— Daily Times of Pakistan
Obama is a good listener and observer. Once he is persuaded to recognise that Pakistan does genuinely regard the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban both Afghan and Pakistani as an existential threat to Pakistan itself there will be a greater tempering of actions that can exacerbate the anti-American feeling in Pakistan
And so it has come to pass. The White House will open its doors to an African-American on January 20, 2009, as the 44th President of the United States, a first in that country's history.
Obama will be taking over, in the words of a New York Times article, a nation weary of the past and wary of the future, gloomy about its place in the world, cynical about its government and desperate for some sense of deliverance and in which nearly nine of every 10 think the country is on the wrong track.
Given this backdrop, Obama clearly will regard as his first priority the steps that need to be taken to ease the economic hardship which is now beginning to manifest itself not only in foreclosures on homes that were purchased with sub-prime mortgages but in the announcement of large-scale layoffs and closures of branches by retailers.
Increased unemployment will hit at a time when the debt burden of the average American has pushed many towards bankruptcy - with a consequent decline in consumer spending in an economy which has relied for its growth largely on consumer spending. That there will be greater spending on the reconstruction of the infrastructure in a duplication of the Roosevelt era's remedy for the Great Depression is almost inevitable. But it will have to take account of the enormous public debt burden that has already been created during the last eight years and the burden of the two wars that America is now fighting.
It is doable - at slightly more than USD10.5 trillion the US public debt is about 68 percent of the 14.3 trillion GDP. Many countries have higher public debt to GDP ratios though most such countries also have far better savings rates than the United States. Defence expenditure that consumes a large and growing part of the US budget will also have to be cut.
How to cut monies from the defence budget to finance employment generating public works and to provide relief to home owners threatened with foreclosures is the principal task that Obama and his team will have to work on even as they prepare for the transition. There is talk of Obama proposing that the lame duck congress pass a USD100 billion package of public works and assistance heating oil costs etc. before he assumes office in January.
Perhaps only slightly lower in priority will be the public expectation that in fulfilment of his pledge Obama will move towards winding down the American military presence in Iraq and deciding on a coherent policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan and the elimination of the Al-Qaeda "safe havens". What should one expect?
First, it is clear that unlike the neo-conservative and Cheney-dominated Bush administration, the Obama administration will in large part abandon 'unilateralism' in favour of a more consultative foreign policy. While this will not mean that there will be any diminution in the importance that the "terrorist" threat will have in the formulation of this consultative foreign policy or the degree of attention not all favourable that Pakistan will receive it may well mean the implementation in practice of the anti-terrorism doctrine that prescribes a 15 percent military effort, a 20 percent diplomatic effort and a 65 percent political and economic effort.
In Iraq Obama is unlikely now to insist on completing a withdrawal within 16 months. Instead, he will choose to work with the Iraqi government, whose anxiety over a timetable for withdrawal was clearly articulated during Obama's visit to Iraq, on finalising the Iraqi Parliament's agreement for the Status of Forces Agreement and on an acceptable time frame for American withdrawal.
Obama may even decide, if his military commanders agree, that a larger immediate draw down be affected immediately to permit the movement of troops to Afghanistan which he has repeatedly affirmed should be the main focus.
It is, however, Afghanistan and Pakistan that will be the focus of attention. Much attention has been paid to Obama's campaign statement that he would take out targets in Pakistan if Pakistan was unable or unwilling to do so. This was in fact no more than the public articulation of the policy that the Bush administration was following. There was no reason for us to interpret it otherwise. But we did need to recognise in it the reflection of the distrust that has characterised the so-called Pak-American partnership in the war on terror.
Recent exchanges and the actions that the new government has taken to publicly claim ownership of the campaign against terrorism and extremism and the military actions now going on in Bajaur and Swat have done much to create a sense of confidence that the US and Pakistan are not working at cross purposes.
One can hope that this confidence in Pakistan's intentions will grow even if questions remain about the capacity of the armed forces - trained for regular combat - to conduct anti-insurgency operations.
Obama is a good listener and observer. Once he is persuaded to recognise that Pakistan does genuinely regard the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban both Afghan and Pakistani as an existential threat to Pakistan itself there will be a greater tempering of actions that can exacerbate anti-American feeling in Pakistan and undermine the effort to build public support for the anti-extremism campaign. The more consultative mode that the new administration will adopt should mean that Pakistan's concerns, both internal and external, will be more effectively factored into policy formulation.
This is the time also to pursue with immediate American assistance the economic development that everyone agrees is the best antidote to the lure of the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda for the disaffected and unemployed youth of the Tribal Areas. Obama will not hesitate to use America's military, but he, much more than the Bush administration, will seek other ways of resolving problems.
Obama could well be persuaded if this were to be effectively presented to him that the spending package to alleviate unemployment at home, which he may ask the lame duck congress for, could also include the finalisation of the Lugar-Biden assistance package for Pakistan. Such a step would ensure that pledges in the "Friends of Pakistan" meetings will be substantial even if they are made conditional on the IMF agreement with Pakistan.
— Daily Times of Pakistan