Earthquake: keeping fingers crossed

The earthquake of 5.6 magnitude on the Richter Scale to have jolted wide areas of the country on Saturday morning had its epicentre close to Ramganj Upazila under Lakshmipur District. This quake is the highest so far within any subduction jone in Bangladesh territory in decades but its significance in terms of ominosity is well knit to the 100 or so mild to mid-level tremors the country had experienced this year. Five of these quakes were of five and above magnitudes and eight had their epicentres in the country's territory. Remarkably just two months back on October 2, a quake of 5.2 magnitude struck north-eastern India and Bangladesh with its epicentre at a place near Goalpara, Assam. Earthquake experts read in the increasing frequencies of mild-to-mid-scale tremors the danger of the approach of one of cataclysmic proportion. Signs even laymen can get are that the calamity is closing in on the capital and other crowded cities like Cumilla, Chattogram, Noakhali and Sylhet.
Unfortunately, here is a natural calamity that does not forewarn like other of the devastating types such as cyclones, storms and floods. Only the experts can conclude from data collected from earlier such catastrophes that the frequent mild-to-mid-level quakes are a dress rehearsal of a mega quake that can be of 7.5 to 8.5 magnitude or even above. At least three major subduction zones cross the country's eastern parts not far from the country's capital, the world's most crowded city. Then there are other such fault lines around this territory close to its border in Myanmar and India. How that can be dangerous is highlighted by the 1997 South Mizoram quake of 6.1 Mw (moment magnitude). Although no fatalities were reported in that Indian state, it caused the collapse of a five-storey building in Chattogram, killing 23 people.
This incident is remarkable for the tragedy to unfold in case a quake of 7.5 magnitude or above strikes the country within its territory or in close proximity. In a survey, the Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha (Rajuk) finds that 865,000 buildings will collapse in the capital alone if a quake of 6.9 magnitude in its nearest subduction zone Madupur, Tangail originates. In such a catastrophe, 210,000 people will be killed and another 229,000 will sustain injuries. This is a grim warning of a monumental tragedy. But if the quake is of far stronger magnitude, the catastrophe that most likely will befall is benumbing to even imagine.
In a situation like this, the best options open to the nation is to stop any construction of buildings or other concrete structures that fail to strictly comply with the latest building codes. There are not even 10 per cent quake resilient buildings in Dhaka City and elsewhere. Since Dhaka is one of the 20 most vulnerable cities in the world, at least the buildings that have been found the worst in the list should be demolished without delay. Then the range and scope of the demolition have to be extended step by step until all buildings in Dhaka and elsewhere become comparatively quake-resilient. Sure enough, this is a daunting task but if a community fund is created for subsidising such a programme, this can be an answer to the problem. Before a tragedy of cataclysmic proportion unfolds, the cost of which will be immeasurable in terms of life and property, such a prior financial involvement will prove most effective.