Economists, businesses fear gloom

Expressing their worry over the latest spell of political troubles, economists and businesses said prolonging the deadlock could affect the country's overall trade and economic activities beyond repair.
They said the ruling and other political parties should come forward to establish "true democracy" for the sake of country's unhindered economic progress.
Their anxieties stemmed from a veritable confrontational political situation the country passed through Monday over the conflicting stances of the Awami League and the BNP centring the first anniversary of the January 5, 2014 polls. The BNP-led alliance has announced a nonstop countrywide blockade at the end of an eventful day on Monday.    
Economist Dr Ahsan H Mansur said: "This is really bad news for the country that the political situation is heading for turmoil. Its (country's) image had already been affected due to Rana Plaza accident, and last fiscal year's political unrest."
He adds: "If political gridlock continues, the economic prospect will face a uncertain situation and goal to become a middle-income country will be obstructed."
The government should work to contain the emerging political unrest since the business climate needs to be peaceful for boosting the macroeconomic situation and continue to achieve more than 6.0 per cent economic growth, Dr Mansur, Executive Director of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), told the FE.
Professor MA Taslim of Economics Department at Dhaka University said: "The government absolutely wants to hold on to power. On the other hand, the opposition sides want a fair election soon. These two confrontational situations have to be eliminated through discussions for economic progress."
He sees the current weak economic governance, lack of larger project implementation capability and the alleged Padma Bridge scam as the bigger problems than the shorter political unrest in Bangladesh.
Professor Taslim, however, told the FE that if the latest political turmoil lingered, the "business expectation" of the local manufacturers would go down.
And that will result in further shrinking of the "gloomy investment scenario" and encourage more capital flight out of the country, he said.
Similarly, the inflow foreign investment will also be affected alongside the troubled business climate in Bangladesh, he said, on a note of caution about the fallout of any prolonged face-off on the political front.
President of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) Kazi Akram Uddin Ahmed said the businesspeople of the country prefer peace and stability in the interest of the economy.
 "We the businessmen prefer peace for the benefit of country's economy," he told the FE from Saudi Arabia over phone Monday.  
Former Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) President Abdus Salam Murshedy said the political unrest in the last financial year 2013-14, the Rana Plaza accident, buyers' pressure on compliance issues had already impacted on the country's readymade garment and textile sectors.
 "But when we are trying to recover the losses and retrive the lost image on the global market, emerging political impasse will impact on this sector severely in the near future," he told the FE.
If the political turmoil continued, not only the image, the production and export in the manufacturing sector would be hampered and the very backbone of the economy will under serious pressure, Murshedy said.
From such fear of dire consequences, the ex-FBCCI chief suggests that the political parties pursue real democratic practices.
The immediate-past president of Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI), Mohammed Shajahan Khan, said the businesses of the country are trying to recover from the losses they suffered in the last fiscal.
 "If the political situation becomes volatile again, business, commerce and economic activities will be affected severely once more. Many businessmen will be forced to stop their activities," he added. He urged the ruling and all the political parties to sit together and resolve the political impasse as soon as possible.
Acting President of Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) Humayun Rashid emphasised the need for dialogue for resolving the ongoing political crisis for the sake of country's economy.  
 "We the businesspeople deeply feel the necessity of peaceful environment since it is vital for uninterrupted development of the country. We believe that there is no alternative to dialogue," he told the FE, as the day virtually passed through a confrontational political situation.    
He believes the prevailing political situation could be resolved through dialogue between the contending parties.    
Asked if they have any plan to request the government to hold dialogue, he said, " If the situation turns for the worse further, then we will have no way but to sit and decide on next course of action together and chalk out programme for the interest of the country's trade and businesses."
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