Economists differ with ADB, IMF on growth prospect
Friday, 5 October 2012
Some prominent economists have differed with the views of Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on growth prospect, reports BSS.
The ADB and the IMF recently put the growth prospect of Bangladesh economy below the 7.2 per cent target, set out for the current 2012-13 financial year (FY13). The two development agencies cut the growth prospect fearing negative impact from slower investment and export and some infrastructure bottlenecks.
The economists including former staff of the World Bank (WB) and IMF expressed their strong believe in achieving economic growth faster than the prediction of the international development agencies.
The IMF in a document in late September projected 5.5 per cent growth for Bangladesh for the current 2012-13 financial year. The lending arm of the World Bank (WB) put the projection well below the fiscal target of 7.2 per cent on assumption of slow export growth and stagnant investment.
The ADB Wednesday released its Economic Outlook 2012, showing six per cent GDP (gross domestic product) growth for Bangladesh in FY13. The donor agency assumed slow investment for the lower growth prospect.
Unlike the IMF, the ADB predicted higher crop production and moderate export earning in the current financial year despite the signs of economic meltdown in some major economies. It also showed 8.5 per cent inflation, which is close to the fiscal target of 7.5 per cent for the period.
The Bank, however, speculated further rise of production cost in the agriculture sector, which would eat up some growth prospect.
Economist and Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF) chairman Dr Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad questioned the merit of the growth projection of various agencies like the ADB and the IMF.
"This type of economic forecast should not be entertained," he said adding that the GDP for the FY would be at least 6.5 per cent.
Ahmad said the 6.5 per cent growth would be good enough for the country considering the declining trend in the major economies.
Economist and former adviser to the caretaker government ABM Mirza Azizul Islam expressed concern over the stagnant situation in investment and falling trend in import of industrial raw-materials. He said growth prospect would be dented if the trend continues.
A former senior economist at the World Bank Dhaka office and the chairman of Policy Research Institute (PRI) Dr Zaidi Sattar also expected that the country would attain over 6.5 per cent GDP at the end of this financial year.
Dr Ahsan H Mansur, also a former senior official at the IMF, said the international agencies put the economic forecast at lower level, but it would be 6.5 per cent in the end of FY13 even the current trend in major economic indicators sustain.
The ADB and the IMF recently put the growth prospect of Bangladesh economy below the 7.2 per cent target, set out for the current 2012-13 financial year (FY13). The two development agencies cut the growth prospect fearing negative impact from slower investment and export and some infrastructure bottlenecks.
The economists including former staff of the World Bank (WB) and IMF expressed their strong believe in achieving economic growth faster than the prediction of the international development agencies.
The IMF in a document in late September projected 5.5 per cent growth for Bangladesh for the current 2012-13 financial year. The lending arm of the World Bank (WB) put the projection well below the fiscal target of 7.2 per cent on assumption of slow export growth and stagnant investment.
The ADB Wednesday released its Economic Outlook 2012, showing six per cent GDP (gross domestic product) growth for Bangladesh in FY13. The donor agency assumed slow investment for the lower growth prospect.
Unlike the IMF, the ADB predicted higher crop production and moderate export earning in the current financial year despite the signs of economic meltdown in some major economies. It also showed 8.5 per cent inflation, which is close to the fiscal target of 7.5 per cent for the period.
The Bank, however, speculated further rise of production cost in the agriculture sector, which would eat up some growth prospect.
Economist and Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF) chairman Dr Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad questioned the merit of the growth projection of various agencies like the ADB and the IMF.
"This type of economic forecast should not be entertained," he said adding that the GDP for the FY would be at least 6.5 per cent.
Ahmad said the 6.5 per cent growth would be good enough for the country considering the declining trend in the major economies.
Economist and former adviser to the caretaker government ABM Mirza Azizul Islam expressed concern over the stagnant situation in investment and falling trend in import of industrial raw-materials. He said growth prospect would be dented if the trend continues.
A former senior economist at the World Bank Dhaka office and the chairman of Policy Research Institute (PRI) Dr Zaidi Sattar also expected that the country would attain over 6.5 per cent GDP at the end of this financial year.
Dr Ahsan H Mansur, also a former senior official at the IMF, said the international agencies put the economic forecast at lower level, but it would be 6.5 per cent in the end of FY13 even the current trend in major economic indicators sustain.