Economy at bay

Forecasts were glibly made by media-savvy pundits with dark forebodings about the days in the run up to the general election but those were taken with a grain of salt by many. After all, Bangladesh had seen hartal, even oboodh of sorts for umpteenth time not to be scared this time around. A few of these shenanigans would not send the country into a tailspin, it was argued assuringly. Hadn`t the country earned the reputation of being resilient? the cognoscenti said.
But when the crunch of andolon came during the last week of November with weeklong blockade garnished with hartal, there was nothing to compare it with in the past. The calamity that befell the nation took vicious toll of human lives and made bonfire of properties and assets. While the excruciating pain of the dying victims benumbed the senses, the colossus loss incurred by the economy boggled the mind.
Economic devastation came slowly but built up into a shattering crescendo in no time. While ordinary men and women, victims of toxic politics, were at a loss as to how to go about their daily grind, the economy lay prostrate being cornered at bay. A random sample of news about the drubbing the economy has been receiving on a daily basis gives some idea about the damage that has been wreaked by serial oborodh punctuated with wildcat hartals. From the jigsaw puzzle of news emerges a mosaic of an economy that is bleeding almost to death. Following is a brief account of the sector-by-sector situation during oborodh and hartal as reported in national newspapers:
a) Service sector. Political violence has taken a heavy toll on the road transport sector, with around 3000 vehicles vandalised and 1000 burnt. Up to December 10 at least 42 drivers, helpers and conductors of bus, mini bus, truck and CNG- run auto-rickshaw were killed in arson attacks and 500 were injured. The transport sector has suffered a loss of Tk. 4.2 billion as a result of political turmoil. Around 7.0 million transport workers remained jobless during blockade and shutdowns. Blockades and shutdowns over the two weeks up to the middle of December disrupted the delivery of import containers and created congestion at the Chittagong port. More than 27000 containers piled up using 87 per cent of the port's container storage capacity.  (Daily Star, December 13).
Damage done to railway transport has been unprecedented and incalculable. Never before has the service sector seen such a widespread devastation in political upheaval.
b) Agriculture sector. Irrigation in 12 southern districts stopped as fuel supply was discontinued. According to newspaper reports until the third week of December, about 150 dealers were sitting idle. 12 fuel-carrying ships are lying in anchor at Bhairab and Rupsha river port because of inland transport stoppage. Fertiliser supply has been stopped in northern districts due to blockade. About 70000 tons of fertiliser are lying under open sky in Baghabari river port. The buffer godowns in 16 northern districts are without fertiliser. Fertiliser from Ashuganj factory to eight districts has stopped due to blockade. (Juganantar, December 23).
During the last two months loss in the poultry sector has amounted to more than Tk. 40 billion and 30 per cent of poultry firms have been closed. About two million (20 lakh) day-old chicks have been killed and 15 million  (a half crore) of eggs have been destroyed each week for lack of space. (Jai Jai Din, December 20).
In an unusual display of protest poultry firm owners brought chicks in cartons to the National Press Club on  December 26 demanding an end to blockade and hartal.
c) Industry. The readymade garment (RMG) industry is suffering huge losses due to political unrest. The sector incurred over Tk. 20 billion (2000 crore) due to political disturbance. The foreign buyers are showing their concern over the political situation. They are shifting RMG order to other countries. Garment exporters have been forced to send their delivery by air at a high cost. (New Nation, December 18).
The pharmaceutical industries have incurred losses of around Tk. 10 billion (1000 crore) during October and November due to political unrest which has almost broken down the supply chain. The situation deteriorated during the first three weeks of December (New Nation, December 21).
The order for finished leather goods and footwear have drastically declined by around 60 per cent following the political standoff, frequent spells of blockade and hartal in November and December. The industry insiders have reported that foreign buyers were refraining from making new export orders as they are sceptical about timely delivery amidst ongoing political violence (Independent, December 18).
The picture of the economy that emerges from the jigsaw-like news items is not pretty and it is not complete. The message of the piecemeal news, however, is unmistakable. The serial oborodh and hartal over the one and a half month have affected all the three sectors of the economy with great damage. Of the three, the service sector has been the worst sufferer. This sector now contributes more 60 per cent to the GDP (gross domestic product). This damage incurred means a reduced GDP during the current fiscal. In the service sector it is the transport sub-sector which has been the hardest hit. Apart from suffering loss of output in terms of GDP, damage to the transport sub-sector means decline in output of the other two sectors viz. agriculture and industry because of the interconnectedness among them. Being the lifeline of all the sectors the damage and immobility of transport sector have a long-term negative consequences for the economy.
It has become clear that the economy absorbs the shock of hartal for a few days but it lays helplessly prostrate before blockade even for a short while. It is unthinkable that political parties, purported working for the welfare of the people, should resort to such suicidal method of protest. The government should have shown zero tolerance to this vicious phenomenon in the name of political demonstration. If the holding of blockade by the opposition has been shocking, the failure to break it quickly by the government has been no less disappointing. Yet again, both the opposition and the government have let down the people. There has to be an immediate end to this standoff that is severely undermining the economy.
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