Elongate it until curve flattens: Experts

The government will require enforcing prolonged lockdown to stem the spread of coronavirus, but strategies have to be devised to ease its pain, health experts and analysists said.
Since the infection rate of deadly virus is climbing and it has yet to peak, medical experts said they are not certain about the ideal duration of lockdown, but agree it should continue until June, even though on a limited-scale.
The government announced general holidays until April 25 aimed at slowing the spread of new coronavirus that causes pneumonia-like COVID-19 illness.
On Sunday, the country reported 139 new cases and four fatalities from COVID-19, according to state-controlled Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, or IEDCR.
Given the situation, economic and business analysts said feeding the very poor and vulnerable and smoothing supply of essential commodities and money are crucial to avoiding food crisis.
Chairman of virology department of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University Professor Dr Saifullah Munshi said case detection in Bangladesh has just started and the curve is rising.
"When the curve starts flattening after reaching its peak, then we can consider relaxing the lockdown," he said.
Lockdown is certainly to continue until May, he said.
In Wuhan, China, there was lockdown for 76 days. Some countries had enforced lockdown for three months while other nations continued it for 69 days.
"The virus will live in human body as reservoir infection unless a vaccine is invented. So it is prudent to continue limited lockdown as long as possible so that people can get out for daily work in limited areas," another healthcare expert said.
But he warned the movement must not be between districts.
IEDCR director Professor Meerjady Sabrina Flora acknowledged the country is experiencing the rising trend now.
It is difficult to say when the peak will arrive as no prediction will be scientific and epidemiologically correct for this virus as many countries have failed to predict it, she said.
"The rising trend in case detection is a concern, because there is no vaccine yet. The virus is not much known to us. There are issues of reappearance and reactivation of the virus," said Dr Flora.
Given the fact, Bangladeshis are not so compliant and people are still coming from abroad, it is difficult to say when the lockdown should be relaxed, said Dr Flora.
Dr Sajjad Zohir, executive director of the Economic Research Group, said the very idea of lockdown is not adequately comprehended by decision makers, less so by people who are assigned to enforce.
He suggested ensuring effective distribution system of social support to the targeted group of people who depend on daily income.
Senior research fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, or CPD,Dr Towfiqul Islam Khan said production of food and essential goods are essential.
"Strategic steps should be taken to ensure production of food and essential goods such as food, medicines and medical equipment by keeping selective factories open ensuring adequate health precautions," he said.
He also suggested ensuring supply of import-dependent essential commodities by assessing their stock and back-up plan to import for near future.
Abul Kasem Khan, chairperson of Business Initiative Leading Development, said multi-strategies should be explored to face the difficulties, but money supply has to be continued maintaining social distancing.
He said many of the branches of commercial banks outside the city are not cooperating with service-seekers.
There are allegations that bankers are not receiving notes below Tk 1000 and Tk 500 and in some cases, are not allowing deposits above Tk 10,000.

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