English soccer is disappearing
Saturday, 5 January 2008
Simon Kuper
England's manager, Steve McClaren, standing under his branded umbrella in the rain, watching his team lose to Croatia and fail to qualify for Euro 2008: already it is one of English soccer's historic images. It recalls an earlier image, from 1993: Graham Taylor exclaiming, "Do I not like that!" during a campaign in which his England team failed to qualify for a World Cup. The bizarre phrase entered the language.
In short: anyone saying that England failed last month because the English Premier League is overrun by foreign players should recognise that English soccer has a constant, possibly eternal, problem: its lack of intelligence. The second problem is not that too few Englishmen play in the Premier League, but that too many do.
British panic over immigrants has spread to football. English clubs prefer foreign players because they are better. Arsenal has almost dispensed with Englishmen altogether. English footballers accounted for only 37 per cent of total minutes played in this season's Premiership, according to Dutch magazine Voetbal International. To some degree, English soccer is disappearing.
Michel Platini, president of Uefa, European soccer's governing body, voiced the consensus that foreign imports are damaging England. After all, if Englishmen cannot get into club sides, how can they become good internationals? "It is my philosophy to protect the identity of the clubs and country," said Mr Platini. "Manchester United against Liverpool should be with players from Manchester and Liverpool, from that region."
However, the numbers reveal other causes of England's failure. Stefan Szymanski, sports economist at Imperial College in London, says that the English, because they invented modern soccer, tend to treat any defeat as unnatural. In fact, says Mr Szymanski, it is statistically probable that England will miss some big tournaments. Historically, England win about 66 per cent of their games - an impressive average. They performed only slightly worse in the 12 qualifying matches for Euro 2008, winning 58 per cent.
England's historical average yields a probability of about 62 per cent of qualifying for a major tournament. The team had qualified five times running before Euro 2008. But the probability of qualifying six times running with England's long-term average is only 6 per cent. Mr Szymanski concludes: "Everyone should calm down and say, 'Well, sometimes you're just unlucky.' "
As for the foreign imports, one could say that Englishmen get "only" 37 per cent of playing time in the Premier League. Or one could say they get a massive 37 per cent, more than any other nationality in what is arguably the world's toughest league.
Rather than playing too little top-class club soccer, Englishmen probably play too much. The Premier League is becoming a global league, seen on television everywhere, soccer's equivalent of the US's National Basketball Association. So players earn millions. So the league is all-consuming. Players have to give everything, every match.
A Croatian playing in a smaller league can husband his energy so as to peak in international matches. But English players must peak for their clubs. That means they often start international matches tired and unfocused. Sven-Göran Eriksson, England's previous manager, argued that fatigue harmed his teams. Hence his ritual analysis of matches: "First half, good. Second half, not so good."
Injuries are common in the intense Premier League. Clubs give players little time to recover. That is why several England regulars missed the Croatia game. If England wants to perform better, it should export players to more laid-back leagues, such as Croatia's.
Even if Mr Platini were right in wanting to keep out foreigners, doing so would be hard. European law lets European citizens work anywhere in the European Union. Most imported players are EU citizens. They are here by right.
In any case, English supporters want foreign players. Mr Platini wonders whether Liverpoolians can identify with a Liverpool team packed with foreigners. Judging by the Premiership's record crowds paying record ticket prices, fans identify enough. England can have either an excellent league or an English league, but not both. Fans apparently prefer excellence.
The Premier League's outsized revenues let English clubs spend fortunes on training young players. Strangely, that does not help. Against Croatia, England's players were not simply tired. They played stupidly. Even Steven Gerrard, England's captain, did. Gerrard gets enough club soccer: he stars for Liverpool. But against Croatia he hared around misplacing passes.
Gerrard does not play stupidly for Liverpool. There, a foreign manager, Rafael Benitez, can remind him of the basics: that the priority with a pass is not instant delivery but that it reaches a team-mate. Foreign managers - or foreign team-mates - can improve an English player's thinking. But with an Englishman managing England, nobody corrected Gerrard and he reverted to English type.
English players are typically raised not to think about soccer. The English game follows an old-fashioned military model: managers command, players obey. Mr Eriksson discovered this in his pre-match chats with individual players. After outlining the opposition's tactics in the player's zone of the field, he would ask: "What would you do?" Often players would reply: "I don't know. You're the boss, Boss."
Mr McClaren and Mr Taylor both proved that being steeped in English soccer culture is a liability not an asset. Now England's Football Association should turn up with a foreign manager, and say: "He's not from here. That's why we chose him."
(The writer is an FT sports columnist)
England's manager, Steve McClaren, standing under his branded umbrella in the rain, watching his team lose to Croatia and fail to qualify for Euro 2008: already it is one of English soccer's historic images. It recalls an earlier image, from 1993: Graham Taylor exclaiming, "Do I not like that!" during a campaign in which his England team failed to qualify for a World Cup. The bizarre phrase entered the language.
In short: anyone saying that England failed last month because the English Premier League is overrun by foreign players should recognise that English soccer has a constant, possibly eternal, problem: its lack of intelligence. The second problem is not that too few Englishmen play in the Premier League, but that too many do.
British panic over immigrants has spread to football. English clubs prefer foreign players because they are better. Arsenal has almost dispensed with Englishmen altogether. English footballers accounted for only 37 per cent of total minutes played in this season's Premiership, according to Dutch magazine Voetbal International. To some degree, English soccer is disappearing.
Michel Platini, president of Uefa, European soccer's governing body, voiced the consensus that foreign imports are damaging England. After all, if Englishmen cannot get into club sides, how can they become good internationals? "It is my philosophy to protect the identity of the clubs and country," said Mr Platini. "Manchester United against Liverpool should be with players from Manchester and Liverpool, from that region."
However, the numbers reveal other causes of England's failure. Stefan Szymanski, sports economist at Imperial College in London, says that the English, because they invented modern soccer, tend to treat any defeat as unnatural. In fact, says Mr Szymanski, it is statistically probable that England will miss some big tournaments. Historically, England win about 66 per cent of their games - an impressive average. They performed only slightly worse in the 12 qualifying matches for Euro 2008, winning 58 per cent.
England's historical average yields a probability of about 62 per cent of qualifying for a major tournament. The team had qualified five times running before Euro 2008. But the probability of qualifying six times running with England's long-term average is only 6 per cent. Mr Szymanski concludes: "Everyone should calm down and say, 'Well, sometimes you're just unlucky.' "
As for the foreign imports, one could say that Englishmen get "only" 37 per cent of playing time in the Premier League. Or one could say they get a massive 37 per cent, more than any other nationality in what is arguably the world's toughest league.
Rather than playing too little top-class club soccer, Englishmen probably play too much. The Premier League is becoming a global league, seen on television everywhere, soccer's equivalent of the US's National Basketball Association. So players earn millions. So the league is all-consuming. Players have to give everything, every match.
A Croatian playing in a smaller league can husband his energy so as to peak in international matches. But English players must peak for their clubs. That means they often start international matches tired and unfocused. Sven-Göran Eriksson, England's previous manager, argued that fatigue harmed his teams. Hence his ritual analysis of matches: "First half, good. Second half, not so good."
Injuries are common in the intense Premier League. Clubs give players little time to recover. That is why several England regulars missed the Croatia game. If England wants to perform better, it should export players to more laid-back leagues, such as Croatia's.
Even if Mr Platini were right in wanting to keep out foreigners, doing so would be hard. European law lets European citizens work anywhere in the European Union. Most imported players are EU citizens. They are here by right.
In any case, English supporters want foreign players. Mr Platini wonders whether Liverpoolians can identify with a Liverpool team packed with foreigners. Judging by the Premiership's record crowds paying record ticket prices, fans identify enough. England can have either an excellent league or an English league, but not both. Fans apparently prefer excellence.
The Premier League's outsized revenues let English clubs spend fortunes on training young players. Strangely, that does not help. Against Croatia, England's players were not simply tired. They played stupidly. Even Steven Gerrard, England's captain, did. Gerrard gets enough club soccer: he stars for Liverpool. But against Croatia he hared around misplacing passes.
Gerrard does not play stupidly for Liverpool. There, a foreign manager, Rafael Benitez, can remind him of the basics: that the priority with a pass is not instant delivery but that it reaches a team-mate. Foreign managers - or foreign team-mates - can improve an English player's thinking. But with an Englishman managing England, nobody corrected Gerrard and he reverted to English type.
English players are typically raised not to think about soccer. The English game follows an old-fashioned military model: managers command, players obey. Mr Eriksson discovered this in his pre-match chats with individual players. After outlining the opposition's tactics in the player's zone of the field, he would ask: "What would you do?" Often players would reply: "I don't know. You're the boss, Boss."
Mr McClaren and Mr Taylor both proved that being steeped in English soccer culture is a liability not an asset. Now England's Football Association should turn up with a foreign manager, and say: "He's not from here. That's why we chose him."
(The writer is an FT sports columnist)