Enthusiasm and realism with nuclear power plant
Dr Aminul Islam Akanda | Thursday, 17 March 2011
Dr Aminul Islam Akanda
Electricity generation is a demand-led priority sector in Bangladesh. The country has a shortage of 1,500 to 2,000 megawatt (MW) electricity at present. It is estimated that there will be an additional demand for 21,000 MW by the year 2025. Under the existing generation capacity, more than 85 per cent of electricity is produced by natural gas. If no new natural gas field is discovered, this power must be met by coal, nuclear power and imported oil. In parts of additional demand, coal would supply a maximum of 10,000 MW and imported oil 5,000 MW and 5,000 MW must be supplied by nuclear power. Bangladesh has long been nursing a nuclear power project at Rooppur, feasibility studies for which certified its technical and economic viabilities many times. The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) is the unborn baby conceived in the early 1960s but yet to deliver. Land acquisition (262 acres for the plant and 12 acres for the residential colony) was completed just after its initiation in 1961. The government of then Pakistan made revised approvals for 70 MW, 140 MW and 200 MW plant in 1963, 1966 and 1969, respectively. It is blamed that the government of Pakistan had lack of interest for its implementation. Bangladesh government after a few years of independence identified the necessity of nuclear power. The Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC) with the support of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) carried out contractual negotiations with vendors for installation of a revised 125 MW plant in the same premises in 1978. The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) also approved the proposal in 1980. However, it could not be taken up for unavailability of fund from proposed options. Subsequently, the government in 1987 decided to incorporate private sector but that initiative remained stalled at the pre-implementation stage because of difficulties in capital accumulation. After a few years, the government again continued with the project and formed a high level implementation committee (now known as the National Committee on the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant Project) in 1992, headed by the Prime Minister. The Nuclear Safety and Radiation Control Act was enacted in 1993. The committee took a revised decision to construct 1,200 MW plant with two units of 600 MW each. The draft of bid invitation document for the first unit was prepared in 2002. However, the initiatives remained limited to negotiations with reactor vendors. It is argued that all the earlier governments did not have strong commitments to implement the RNPP project. Recent initiative by the present government has come with a renewed hope. The planned capacity of the RNPP has been increased to 2,000 MW with two units of 1,000 MW each. The BAEC and the Russian State Nuclear Company (Rosatom) signed a memorandum of understanding in May 2009, a five-year framework agreement in May 2010, a preliminary agreement for installation in February 2011 and the final agreement is expected to be completed in April 2011. Under the deal, the Rosatom will supply uranium, will take back spent fuel and will manage nuclear waste during its life-term. The RNPP is expected to cost US$1.5 to $2.0 billion, construction works of which is expected to start in 2012 and completed by 2018. The safety and safeguard issues of nuclear power plants are a major concern. Following the Chernobyl accident in 1986, the construction of nuclear power stations declined in the western countries and the generation of nuclear electricity remained almost stable all over the world in the past three decades. Meanwhile, research and development work for safe reactors continued and many new designs have been made. Russia has also successfully overcome its shortcomings that caused the Chernobyl accident. Recently, many countries have started to set up nuclear power plants. It is to be noted here that India has a generation capacity of about 5,000 MW that is expected to reach at 20,000 MW in 2020. It is very rational for Bangladesh to construct the nuclear plant without delay. Several studies by different countries and expert groups show that the cost of electricity generation from nuclear power has comparative advantage over gas and coal sources. However, on time implementation of the project is very important for its cost effectiveness. The paper design estimates an implementation period of six years but needs longer time because of problems with design, funding, construction process, quality control, etc. The evidences of cost hike is remarkable for the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in the USA, which was planned in the early 1970s with a cost around $0.5 million that ballooned to about $8 billion before the plant started producing electricity 10 years behind the schedule. Moreover, the nuclear power cannot be stored without the risk of groundwater contamination or environmental degradation. The waste from nuclear energy is extremely dangerous and it has to be carefully looked after. It is unlikely to have an accident at Rooppur like Chernobyl because the present day Russian reactors are safe like any reactor in the western world. Russia is building nuclear power reactors in Iran, India, China and Bulgaria. Even after that, the BAEC needs to ensure safety and adhere to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) or equivalent standards. Bangladesh has the option to take help from the committed cooperation of the IAEA on the construction process of the RNPP. Another critical issue is the domestic capacity of the BAEC whether it is able to handle the safety, safeguard and control over implementation of the proposed nuclear plant. It is reported that the BAEC has lack of expertise created mainly for (i) the inability to recruit or attract competent engineers without adequate nuclear programme in hand and (ii) leaving jobs by many trained engineers taking better opportunities abroad. However, the BAEC in the meantime has strengthened its collaboration with the IAEA and some countries. It is desirable to apprehend the problem so that BAEC can cope up with the operation and management of the plant. Many external and internal factors influence even the peaceful installation of nuclear power plant. This is visible from the decrease in production of nuclear electricity in India from 18 to 14 million MW hours during 2001-2008. It decreased also in Europe from 969 to 863 million MW hours during 2004-2009. However, recent global outlook on peaceful use of nuclear power is improving. The IAEA permitted eight developing nations to install nuclear plant in 2007. This time, the government needs to remove internal problems related to flow of fund and other support services because this situation may not continue for ever. Problem may arise with inland transportation of heavy equipment through river-way because it will be possible only during the monsoon season. If one season is missed for any reason, the whole schedule may be delayed by one year. It is a good symptom that the Prime Minister has already marked the matter. There has been so much talk about the Rooppur plant, at home and abroad, that many people think that the plant already exists. It is no more desirable to keep the project at pre-implementation stage limiting to proposals with higher capacity and negotiations. It is, however, quite plausible from the progress so far made in the present negotiations that the RNPP being elusive for a very long time will be a reality in 2018. Before final deal with the Rosatom, all the matters in the treaty must be clear along with the smooth supply of uranium as the uranium-peak is near to appear within the next three decades. The government needs to take care with diplomatic strategies to avert any external barriers. The weakness with the BAEC, financing and other domestic affairs need to be reduced. What is required is bold and fast action while both national and international opinions are favourable. If its implementation fails this time, the country will be dependent on up-coming imported electricity, which will gradually be higher as the neighbouring countries will have surplus electricity. The writer is Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, American International University -Bangladesh, Dhaka, and can be reached at E-mail: [email protected]
Electricity generation is a demand-led priority sector in Bangladesh. The country has a shortage of 1,500 to 2,000 megawatt (MW) electricity at present. It is estimated that there will be an additional demand for 21,000 MW by the year 2025. Under the existing generation capacity, more than 85 per cent of electricity is produced by natural gas. If no new natural gas field is discovered, this power must be met by coal, nuclear power and imported oil. In parts of additional demand, coal would supply a maximum of 10,000 MW and imported oil 5,000 MW and 5,000 MW must be supplied by nuclear power. Bangladesh has long been nursing a nuclear power project at Rooppur, feasibility studies for which certified its technical and economic viabilities many times. The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) is the unborn baby conceived in the early 1960s but yet to deliver. Land acquisition (262 acres for the plant and 12 acres for the residential colony) was completed just after its initiation in 1961. The government of then Pakistan made revised approvals for 70 MW, 140 MW and 200 MW plant in 1963, 1966 and 1969, respectively. It is blamed that the government of Pakistan had lack of interest for its implementation. Bangladesh government after a few years of independence identified the necessity of nuclear power. The Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC) with the support of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) carried out contractual negotiations with vendors for installation of a revised 125 MW plant in the same premises in 1978. The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) also approved the proposal in 1980. However, it could not be taken up for unavailability of fund from proposed options. Subsequently, the government in 1987 decided to incorporate private sector but that initiative remained stalled at the pre-implementation stage because of difficulties in capital accumulation. After a few years, the government again continued with the project and formed a high level implementation committee (now known as the National Committee on the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant Project) in 1992, headed by the Prime Minister. The Nuclear Safety and Radiation Control Act was enacted in 1993. The committee took a revised decision to construct 1,200 MW plant with two units of 600 MW each. The draft of bid invitation document for the first unit was prepared in 2002. However, the initiatives remained limited to negotiations with reactor vendors. It is argued that all the earlier governments did not have strong commitments to implement the RNPP project. Recent initiative by the present government has come with a renewed hope. The planned capacity of the RNPP has been increased to 2,000 MW with two units of 1,000 MW each. The BAEC and the Russian State Nuclear Company (Rosatom) signed a memorandum of understanding in May 2009, a five-year framework agreement in May 2010, a preliminary agreement for installation in February 2011 and the final agreement is expected to be completed in April 2011. Under the deal, the Rosatom will supply uranium, will take back spent fuel and will manage nuclear waste during its life-term. The RNPP is expected to cost US$1.5 to $2.0 billion, construction works of which is expected to start in 2012 and completed by 2018. The safety and safeguard issues of nuclear power plants are a major concern. Following the Chernobyl accident in 1986, the construction of nuclear power stations declined in the western countries and the generation of nuclear electricity remained almost stable all over the world in the past three decades. Meanwhile, research and development work for safe reactors continued and many new designs have been made. Russia has also successfully overcome its shortcomings that caused the Chernobyl accident. Recently, many countries have started to set up nuclear power plants. It is to be noted here that India has a generation capacity of about 5,000 MW that is expected to reach at 20,000 MW in 2020. It is very rational for Bangladesh to construct the nuclear plant without delay. Several studies by different countries and expert groups show that the cost of electricity generation from nuclear power has comparative advantage over gas and coal sources. However, on time implementation of the project is very important for its cost effectiveness. The paper design estimates an implementation period of six years but needs longer time because of problems with design, funding, construction process, quality control, etc. The evidences of cost hike is remarkable for the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in the USA, which was planned in the early 1970s with a cost around $0.5 million that ballooned to about $8 billion before the plant started producing electricity 10 years behind the schedule. Moreover, the nuclear power cannot be stored without the risk of groundwater contamination or environmental degradation. The waste from nuclear energy is extremely dangerous and it has to be carefully looked after. It is unlikely to have an accident at Rooppur like Chernobyl because the present day Russian reactors are safe like any reactor in the western world. Russia is building nuclear power reactors in Iran, India, China and Bulgaria. Even after that, the BAEC needs to ensure safety and adhere to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) or equivalent standards. Bangladesh has the option to take help from the committed cooperation of the IAEA on the construction process of the RNPP. Another critical issue is the domestic capacity of the BAEC whether it is able to handle the safety, safeguard and control over implementation of the proposed nuclear plant. It is reported that the BAEC has lack of expertise created mainly for (i) the inability to recruit or attract competent engineers without adequate nuclear programme in hand and (ii) leaving jobs by many trained engineers taking better opportunities abroad. However, the BAEC in the meantime has strengthened its collaboration with the IAEA and some countries. It is desirable to apprehend the problem so that BAEC can cope up with the operation and management of the plant. Many external and internal factors influence even the peaceful installation of nuclear power plant. This is visible from the decrease in production of nuclear electricity in India from 18 to 14 million MW hours during 2001-2008. It decreased also in Europe from 969 to 863 million MW hours during 2004-2009. However, recent global outlook on peaceful use of nuclear power is improving. The IAEA permitted eight developing nations to install nuclear plant in 2007. This time, the government needs to remove internal problems related to flow of fund and other support services because this situation may not continue for ever. Problem may arise with inland transportation of heavy equipment through river-way because it will be possible only during the monsoon season. If one season is missed for any reason, the whole schedule may be delayed by one year. It is a good symptom that the Prime Minister has already marked the matter. There has been so much talk about the Rooppur plant, at home and abroad, that many people think that the plant already exists. It is no more desirable to keep the project at pre-implementation stage limiting to proposals with higher capacity and negotiations. It is, however, quite plausible from the progress so far made in the present negotiations that the RNPP being elusive for a very long time will be a reality in 2018. Before final deal with the Rosatom, all the matters in the treaty must be clear along with the smooth supply of uranium as the uranium-peak is near to appear within the next three decades. The government needs to take care with diplomatic strategies to avert any external barriers. The weakness with the BAEC, financing and other domestic affairs need to be reduced. What is required is bold and fast action while both national and international opinions are favourable. If its implementation fails this time, the country will be dependent on up-coming imported electricity, which will gradually be higher as the neighbouring countries will have surplus electricity. The writer is Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, American International University -Bangladesh, Dhaka, and can be reached at E-mail: [email protected]