Erdogan faces tough battle in May 14 polls

ANKARA, May 07 (Reuters): Stuck in Tayyip Erdogan's shadow throughout his career, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu believes his time has come to set Turkey on a new path and roll back much of the legacy of the man who has dominated politics for two decades.
An alliance of six opposition parties named the earnest and sometimes feisty former civil servant as its candidate to take on Erdogan in the May 14 elections, which are seen as perhaps the most consequential in the country's modern history.
Opinion polls generally show Kilicdaroglu, 74, holding an edge, and possibly winning in a second round vote, after an inclusive campaign promising solutions to a cost-of-living crisis that eroded the president's popularity in recent years.
He has pledged a return to orthodox economic policies and the parliamentary system of governance, independence for a judiciary critics say Erdogan has used to crack down on dissent, and somewhat smoother relations with the West.
The opposition's turnaround plan aims to cool inflation that hit 85% last year, even as it is expected to bring financial market turmoil and potentially the latest in a series of currency crashes.
"I know people are struggling to get by. I know the cost of living and the hopelessness of young people," Kilicdaroglu told a rally last week. "The time has come for change. A new spirit and understanding is necessary."
Detractors say Kilicdaroglu - who is scorned by Erdogan after suffering repeated election defeats as chair of the Republican People's Party (CHP) - lacks his opponent's power to rally audiences and fails to offer a clear vision for a post-Erdogan era.
He is looking to build on the opposition's 2019 triumph when the CHP defeated Erdogan's ruling AK Party in Istanbul and other big cities in local elections, thanks to support from other opposition party voters.
Even if he prevails, Kilicdaroglu faces challenges keeping an opposition alliance including nationalists, Islamists, secularists and liberals united. His selection as candidate came after a 72-hour dispute in which the leader of the second-biggest party, IYI's Meral Aksener, briefly walked out.
He "portrays a totally opposite image from Erdogan, who is a polarising figure and fighter who ... consolidates his voter base," said Birol Baskan, a Turkey-based author and political analyst.
"Kilicdaroglu appears much more statesmanlike, trying to unify and reach out to those not voting for them... That is his magic, and very difficult to do in Turkey," he said. "I'm not sure he will win, but he, Kilicdaroglu, is the right character at the right time."
Polls suggest a tight presidential and parliamentary vote, which will decide not just who leads Turkey but what role it may play to ease conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Many wonder whether Kilicdaroglu can defeat Erdogan, the country's longest-serving leader, whose campaigning charisma has helped deliver more than a dozen election victories.
But analysts say Erdogan is closer than ever to defeat despite his heavy hand on the media, courts and the government's record fiscal spending on social aid ahead of the vote.
The opposition has stressed that Erdogan's drive to slash interest rates set off the inflationary crisis that devastated household budgets. The government says the policy stoked exports and investment as part of a programme encouraging lira holdings.