Europe can limit Iran's nuclear ambitions
Saturday, 16 February 2008
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg
The findings of the recent US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran have rekindled debate on Iran's nuclear ambitions and on the appropriate international response to its nuclear programme. It must be stated without illusions, however, that a government which has threatened Israel with obliteration and which is pursuing the most ambitious missile programme in the Middle East is probably unscrupulous enough to resume an abandoned nuclear weapons programme at any time.
Iran's nuclear programme continues to be shrouded in secrecy. Tehran has granted limited if any access to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. The international community's central demands - for an immediate suspension of uranium enrichment and a comprehensive response to all open questions - have not yet been met. President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad's call for 50,000 additional centrifuges to enrich what could be weapons-grade uranium only reinforces the likelihood of continued Iranian intransigence.
In this context, a concerted approach under the auspices of the United Nations remains the most effective strategy for persuading Iran to change course. However, a diplomatic approach through the UN will only succeed if there is clarity and agreement about its aims: to preclude categorically the possibility of Iran possessing or passing on military nuclear capabilities. At the same time, the international community should cease talk of regime change and accept Iran's right to nuclear energy for civilian purposes.
Without significant political and economic pressure, Iran is unlikely to make substantive concessions on the nuclear issue. Sanctions alone will not yield the desired results, however, if Iran is not also offered incentives for a change of course. Although Europeans have fewer incentives to offer Tehran than the US, Europe is well situated to address the regional consequences of Iranian nuclear proliferation.
Faced with uncertainty regarding Iran's nuclear programme and dwindling fossil fuel reserves, almost all countries of the Middle East are striving to acquire nuclear technology. It is likely that many will eventually acquire it and, unless Europe and its allies act, possibly from states or organisations less interested in distinguishing between civilian and military use. It is therefore in Europe's interest to offer so-called moderate countries in the region a legal means of accessing these technologies for civilian use.
Through co-ordinated co-operation with the moderate Arab states in the field of civilian nuclear technology - within strictly defined limits and with absolute compliance with all requirements of the non-proliferation treaty - the European Union could counter the danger of proliferation posed by Iran.
A European initiative of this kind could prevent Iran from passing on its nuclear technology, thereby reducing its political influence in the region and limiting its ability to recoup the substantial costs of its nuclear programme. Co-ordinated civilian nuclear co-operation would also open a lucrative market for European energy and nuclear industries. Europe, which is still considered more credible than the US in the region, would significantly gain in influence. Links forged as a result could potentially bring major benefits in the fields of trade, the environment, energy security and regional security.
In Iran itself, the possibility of civilian nuclear co-operation could create vital incentive for change. Mr Ahmadi-Nejad would be increasingly hard-pressed to explain to Iran's theocratic leadership and his sanctions-stricken electorate why Iran should suffer as a pariah of the international community while its neighbours benefit from peaceful and mutually beneficial nuclear co-operation with Europe.
In order to find a common European position, Germany - Europe's former leader in nuclear technologies - might have to rethink its decision for a nuclear phase-out. In the light of growing dependency on external energy suppliers and multilateral action against global warming, the phase-out tends to be obsolete anyway.
Europe has the opportunity to develop a new approach to nuclear proliferation in the Middle East that takes into account the needs of the entire region. A European package of incentives would also have one tempting advantage compared with European sanctions: it is a course that could be pursued unilaterally without difficulties.
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The author is a member of the German Bundestag (CSU). He is deputy spokesman for the CDU/CSU on the foreign affairs committee and spokesman of the foreign policy committee of the CSU
The findings of the recent US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran have rekindled debate on Iran's nuclear ambitions and on the appropriate international response to its nuclear programme. It must be stated without illusions, however, that a government which has threatened Israel with obliteration and which is pursuing the most ambitious missile programme in the Middle East is probably unscrupulous enough to resume an abandoned nuclear weapons programme at any time.
Iran's nuclear programme continues to be shrouded in secrecy. Tehran has granted limited if any access to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. The international community's central demands - for an immediate suspension of uranium enrichment and a comprehensive response to all open questions - have not yet been met. President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad's call for 50,000 additional centrifuges to enrich what could be weapons-grade uranium only reinforces the likelihood of continued Iranian intransigence.
In this context, a concerted approach under the auspices of the United Nations remains the most effective strategy for persuading Iran to change course. However, a diplomatic approach through the UN will only succeed if there is clarity and agreement about its aims: to preclude categorically the possibility of Iran possessing or passing on military nuclear capabilities. At the same time, the international community should cease talk of regime change and accept Iran's right to nuclear energy for civilian purposes.
Without significant political and economic pressure, Iran is unlikely to make substantive concessions on the nuclear issue. Sanctions alone will not yield the desired results, however, if Iran is not also offered incentives for a change of course. Although Europeans have fewer incentives to offer Tehran than the US, Europe is well situated to address the regional consequences of Iranian nuclear proliferation.
Faced with uncertainty regarding Iran's nuclear programme and dwindling fossil fuel reserves, almost all countries of the Middle East are striving to acquire nuclear technology. It is likely that many will eventually acquire it and, unless Europe and its allies act, possibly from states or organisations less interested in distinguishing between civilian and military use. It is therefore in Europe's interest to offer so-called moderate countries in the region a legal means of accessing these technologies for civilian use.
Through co-ordinated co-operation with the moderate Arab states in the field of civilian nuclear technology - within strictly defined limits and with absolute compliance with all requirements of the non-proliferation treaty - the European Union could counter the danger of proliferation posed by Iran.
A European initiative of this kind could prevent Iran from passing on its nuclear technology, thereby reducing its political influence in the region and limiting its ability to recoup the substantial costs of its nuclear programme. Co-ordinated civilian nuclear co-operation would also open a lucrative market for European energy and nuclear industries. Europe, which is still considered more credible than the US in the region, would significantly gain in influence. Links forged as a result could potentially bring major benefits in the fields of trade, the environment, energy security and regional security.
In Iran itself, the possibility of civilian nuclear co-operation could create vital incentive for change. Mr Ahmadi-Nejad would be increasingly hard-pressed to explain to Iran's theocratic leadership and his sanctions-stricken electorate why Iran should suffer as a pariah of the international community while its neighbours benefit from peaceful and mutually beneficial nuclear co-operation with Europe.
In order to find a common European position, Germany - Europe's former leader in nuclear technologies - might have to rethink its decision for a nuclear phase-out. In the light of growing dependency on external energy suppliers and multilateral action against global warming, the phase-out tends to be obsolete anyway.
Europe has the opportunity to develop a new approach to nuclear proliferation in the Middle East that takes into account the needs of the entire region. A European package of incentives would also have one tempting advantage compared with European sanctions: it is a course that could be pursued unilaterally without difficulties.
...................................................................
The author is a member of the German Bundestag (CSU). He is deputy spokesman for the CDU/CSU on the foreign affairs committee and spokesman of the foreign policy committee of the CSU