Evolving Trumpian dynamics, his political vulnerabilities

Since assuming the Office of the President of the United States last year, Mr. Donald Trump has been consistent about two aspects - "America First" and instant nontraditional responses to serious situations through Twitter. These factors have at times raised serious concerns within the international paradigm and also created complexity within the matrix of governance in the United States.
These elements were reflected through his pursuit of transactional foreign policy during his visits to Saudi Arabia, Israel, France, and China and also during his inter-active participation in international meetings held in Europe, the United Nations and in the Far East. His visit to Davos, Switzerland, however, marked a slight shift. For a change, the emphasis here and also during his State of the Union speech was on reading out of the tele-prompter. This was probably because the emphasis was on economics.
President Donald Trump delivered his first State of the Union address on January 30. He climbed the dais in the Capitol with one of the lowest approval ratings for any first-term president. This rating has since slightly improved but his presidency continues to be clouded by investigations into his campaign's ties to Russia.
As described by Chris Cillizza of the CNN, it was "a (very) lengthy speech" in which he largely revisited his accomplishments over his first year in office and offered a handful of proposals he'd like to see considered in the coming year. The analyst did not hesitate to point out that what Trump "says one day means very little for what he will do the next".
During the first hour of his 80-minute speech, Trump talked only about his domestic policy - tax cuts, the economy, trade, regulatory reform and immigration. He underscored the economic successes of his first year in office, including a soaring stock market and low unemployment. He trumpeted the large package of tax cuts he signed into law last year and proclaimed that a regulatory rollback has allowed industries to thrive. He also indicated that his financial market-oriented drive had been successful and this had been reflected in gross domestic product (GDP) growth of nearly 3.2 per cent, record growth in the share market as reflected in the DOW, S & P and NASDAQ and reduction in unemployment to 4.1 per cent.
This interpretation by Trump of the US economic trigonometry has, however, been upset in the first week of February with plunges in US stock markets and rise in extreme volatility. This, in its own way has affected stock markets all over the world.
Trump in his speech made little mention of America's role in the international sphere. He spoke most extensively about domestic affairs, but did reserve the final section of his address for foreign matters. He touted successes in battling back ISIS and again denounced the Iran nuclear deal. He also warned that North Korea could "very soon" be capable of threatening the US homeland with nuclear weapons."Past experience has taught us that complacency and concessions only invite aggression and provocation," Trump said of North Korea. "I will not repeat the mistakes of the past administrations that got us into this dangerous position."
This approach was interpreted by most analysts as Trump trying to not only using "America First" as a piece of rhetoric but also focusing on making it a policy reality as well. However, it needs to be mentioned that at various points he also made calls for the country and the Congress to come together, set aside differences, seek common ground and create unity. There were some references to past accomplishments and laying out of a vision for future governance.
Trump used this opportunity to deride former President Obama and the Republicans in the audience "ate it up". Cillizza reported that he had already "jettisoned DACA, pushed for the repeal of the individual mandate, stripped out regulation after regulation put into place by Obama" and this time during the address announced his plans to keep the Guantanamo Bay prison in Cuba open -- a direct rebuttal to Obama's long-made and long-failed pledge to close the prison. Trump has also re-introduced some sanctions on Cuba.
The interesting thing was that nowhere in his speech did Trump address -- even obliquely -- the special counsel investigation into Russia's attempted meddling in the 2016 election and possible collusion with members of his campaign. In fact, he was diplomatic in this regard. He uttered the word "Russia" only once and said "Around the world, we face rogue regimes, terrorist groups, and rivals like China and Russia that challenge our interests, our economy, and our values."
PROGNOSTICATORS NEED TO BE CAREFUL: Political analyst Professor Julian Zelizer has warned that the Democrats should not get carried away with either a possible down-trend in Trump's popularity or a possible implosion within the US Republican Party.
He feels that there are signs that Trump is in the process of "mounting a political comeback". Trump's approval rating has reached 42 per cent - up 10 points since December - according to the latest Monmouth University Poll. One other poll has suggested that it has reached 49 per cent. Consequently, whether it's 42 per cent or 49 per cent, the fact remains that his approval rating is increasing. This suggests that contrary to Democrat expectations, voter support for the Democrats in the midterm election in November might not be as inevitable as it looked just a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the latest Gallup Mood of the Nation poll indicates that compared with early 2017, 78 per cent of those polled were pleased with the nation's military strength (up 12 points from last year). Confidence in how secure the United States is from terrorist threats has also increased from 50 per cent to 63 per cent. Perhaps most important, consumer confidence is at a 17-year high.
The stock market might have "slightly fallen" but it still remains at historically high levels. In the first quarter of this year, workers' paychecks will grow a bit bigger as the new IRS tax withholding tables register the impact of the tax cut that passed in December. The taxcut was a huge victory for the GOP as the Administration quietly moved forward with deregulations for the corporate and the financial sectors that were issued through executive action.
Consequently, it is being argued that prognosticators need to be careful. They were wrong during the 2016 presidential election and need to take these signs of resurgence seriously. Zelizer is suggesting that although the financial measures were extremely unpopular at the time of their passage, they seem to be paying off. As a result, many are drawing reference to President Reagan's approach in 1984 and his claim that it is "Morning in America Again". This gradual economic boom, the Republicans are hoping, will influence millions of middle- and working class families ahead of the mid-term elections later on in 2018.
IMMIGRATION ISSUE AND RIFT IN DEMOCRATIC CAMP: Trump appears to have created a degree of rift within the Democrats through his moves on immigration. It may be recalled that before he became president, the young children of illegal immigrants who entered this country were protected by the "Dreamer" programme that President Barack Obama implemented through executive action. However, in an effort to strengthen support for his hard-line restrictionist immigration plan, which remains the centerpiece of Trump's New Deal, he created an artificial crisis by rescinding the entire programme. He baited the Democrats into making the legislative restoration of DACA some kind of a deal, rather than this being the President's responsibility.
Democrats, who believe in government and governance, quickly buckled to a temporary budget that did not restore DACA. Now the President has raised the stakes by promoting a deal by which he would accept legislation restoring DACA, in a more expansive structure than before, in exchange for draconian measures on the rest of immigration - from cutting off much the inflow of legal immigrants allowed by Lyndon Johnson's 1965 legislation to the possible construction of his infamous Mexican wall.
As a result, Democrats now find themselves in the difficult position of being the deciding force as to whether DACA survives, despite the fact they don't control any branch of government. Through this effort Trump is pitting the Dreamers against the millions of other immigrants who might not be able to come to the United States or be able to stay. Through such an evolving action Trump has taken off the table the possibility of a path to citizenship for all the illegal immigrants who were hoping for the kind of bolder agreement that Presidents Bush and Obama pushed forward relatively unsuccessfully.
This scenario has led many to question whether proponents of a liberalised immigration plan will have any leverage in the future. It is being suggested that that if the Democrats can not change the way this issue is being discussed, they might face a lose-lose situation. Either they will be held to blame for being responsible for ending DACA, which will deflate the party's base, or they will hand President Trump a massive legislative victory that could virtually cement his standing for 2020. The President could then go into the midterm elections claiming that he has been able to achieve the "grand bargain," which eluded his predecessors, with legislation that liberalized certain parts of immigration while giving the hard-line right everything else that it wanted. He has campaigned on building a Wall and then he will be able to say that he has symbolically been able to deliver his promise.
Despite this evolving potential, President Trump remains vulnerable politically. The prospect of his comeback is also fragile. Whatever happens to him by October this year will also affect the fortune of the Republican Party. This will be so because it has firmly thrown its reputation behind Trump and faces an extraordinarily challenging midterm election in November.
In the meantime, Trump has decided on his own legacy by seeking necessary arrangements to have a large-scale military parade every year. This, he hopes, will re-affirm American leadership throughout the world.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
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