Fallouts of Mumbai massacre
Sunday, 14 December 2008
Syed Jamaluddin
THE Mumbai massacre has shaken not only India but also the entire world. The dust raised by the incidents is unlikely to settle down in the near future because of the gravity of the matter. It is bound to have impact on the relations between India and Pakistan while the latter denies any involvement. The Prime Minister and the external affairs minister of India have implied links with Pakistan. The Pakistan President said that his country itself was a victim of such acts. All but one of the attackers were killed and the one arrested reportedly admitted that they all came from Pakistan. It is widely believed in India that Laskar-e-Taiba, a Kashmiri separatist organisation was behind the attack. The same organisation was accused of launching the attack on the Indian parliament, which had severely damaged Indo-Pakistan ties. After the attack on parliament, the two countries were almost on the brink of a war. Both countries deployed troops along the border which continued for many weeks. Fortunately, an open conflict did not flare up due to the reconciliatory efforts by nations friendly to both India and Pakistan and pressure by the saner sections of the people in both countries.
The Indian authorities have identified ten terrorists from the statement of the one that has survived the encounter. While the Indian politicians may take comfort in the fact that there is lack of evidence to suggest involvement of any local Indian in the terrorist attack, it is difficult to believe that this can be done without any local support. Very often in the past the Indian authorities had shifted the blame to the neighbouring countries. But there are many causes and many disgruntled groups in India who have an axe to grind against the establishment. India is under great pressure from within to react with force. There may be great temptation to go for suspected training camps in Pakistan in exercising its right to defend itself. But there are compelling strategic compulsions that might prevent India from exercising an option that has the potential for greater conflagration between the two countries.
Military action is not the option that New Delhi should consider. India can cut off diplomatic relations, stop railway and air connections. These are, of course, harsh measures. If such actions are implemented, India-Pakistan relations will be the casualty. Voices of reason are very few in both countries. Many things could have been sorted out if there had been confidence between the two countries. Had the ISI Chief come to India as requested by the Prime Minister of India, it would have established the joint mechanism to fight terrorism. Anti-friendly elements are too strong to allow such contacts.
US Senator John McCain has said that if Pakistan does not act against those linked to Mumbai terror attack, India might carry out surgical strikes against such elements. According to him, there is enough evidence of the involvement of former ISI officials in the planning and execution of the Mumbai attack and terrorist training camps are still operating in Pakistan. If Pakistan does not respond fast to arrest the involved people, India will be left with no option but to conduct aerial operation against select targets in Pakistan. Pakistan is in a difficult situation. The US is pressurising Pakistan to do more to contain the terrorists and now India is asking Pakistan to take action against the terrorist connected with Mumbai massacre. The US is sending unmanned flights to Pakistan to strike at the terrorists. This is humiliating for Pakistan. Pakistan is almost pushed to the corner.
The Mumbai incidents were most unfortunate and killing of innocent people cannot be condoned under any circumstances. The India Pakistan dispute is undeniably complicated and requires pragmatism in addressing it. Sadly a high level Pakistan delegation led by no less a person than its foreign minister had to cut short the ongoing visit to India and returned home as a sequel to the incident. Cricket matches and other programmes between the two countries have been abandoned. India is naturally angry. Even at this stage, goodwill and pragmatism must be brought into play for the overall interest of not only India and Pakistan but also for the South Asian region.
India has everybody's support to deal with the issue but has to act with wisdom. It is necessary to deal with the root cause of terrorism. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has called for creating an agency similar to the Homeland Security in the USA, which has been able to stop terrorist attacks after 9/11, hoping this new agency in India would succeed likewise. It may not work that way in India because there are many home-grown terrorist organisations in India whereas the USA has only external terrorists to handle. India has to accept responsibility to tackle home-grown problems. Kashmir issue is on top of the list of the problems. India's treatment of the Muslims has left a lot to be desired. Frequent riots targetting Muslims are both communal and political. The rise of Hindu fundamentalism in India often escapes serious attention as is the case of violence against the Christians. The massacre of 2000 Muslims in Gujrat was caused by Hindu fundamentalists
Pakistan's denial on involvement was flawed. Evidence of their involvement is coming out that rogue elements in Pakistan have helped the operation in Mumbai. The Indian Govt has sent an official note of protest to Pakistan, asking the latter to hand over the most wanted fugitives. Pakistan has now offered a joint investigation. Given the history of distrust between the two countries, it is not conceivable that they would be serious to establish the truth jointly.
Islamabad has come under intense pressure to act against militant groups operating on its soil in the wake of Mumbai attacks. Pakistan has raided a terrorist camp. Fifteen people were arrested in the raid. They have detained two leaders of the banned group Laskhar-e-Taiba. The US has given a cautious welcome to the arrests.
With Barak Obama in charge, expectations are high that the war on terror would be fought unitedly and not by dividing the world, "you are either with us or against us". World opinion is firmly against terrorism. It will depend on how the new US President deals with India and Pakistan in the context of the Mumbai carnage. The US has tremendous leverage over both the countries. The US can bring India and Pakistan to the table to resolve the causes of terrorism in South Asia. The doomsday predictions in the media over the Mumbai massacre seem to have dissipated, paving way for India and Pakistan to deal with the terrorism issue seriously. The ground is now favourable for the US to use her considerable influence on Pakistan govt to delink from any sponsorship of terror groups and obliterate such groups and to urge India to consider the grievances of the minorities and rising Hindu fundamentalisnm to deal with domestic terrorism in the country. While tension between the two neighbours continues to run high, an outbreak of hostilities does not appear likely. There has been no army or navy movement in India so far, although internal security has been raised to high level.
The writer is an economist and columnist
THE Mumbai massacre has shaken not only India but also the entire world. The dust raised by the incidents is unlikely to settle down in the near future because of the gravity of the matter. It is bound to have impact on the relations between India and Pakistan while the latter denies any involvement. The Prime Minister and the external affairs minister of India have implied links with Pakistan. The Pakistan President said that his country itself was a victim of such acts. All but one of the attackers were killed and the one arrested reportedly admitted that they all came from Pakistan. It is widely believed in India that Laskar-e-Taiba, a Kashmiri separatist organisation was behind the attack. The same organisation was accused of launching the attack on the Indian parliament, which had severely damaged Indo-Pakistan ties. After the attack on parliament, the two countries were almost on the brink of a war. Both countries deployed troops along the border which continued for many weeks. Fortunately, an open conflict did not flare up due to the reconciliatory efforts by nations friendly to both India and Pakistan and pressure by the saner sections of the people in both countries.
The Indian authorities have identified ten terrorists from the statement of the one that has survived the encounter. While the Indian politicians may take comfort in the fact that there is lack of evidence to suggest involvement of any local Indian in the terrorist attack, it is difficult to believe that this can be done without any local support. Very often in the past the Indian authorities had shifted the blame to the neighbouring countries. But there are many causes and many disgruntled groups in India who have an axe to grind against the establishment. India is under great pressure from within to react with force. There may be great temptation to go for suspected training camps in Pakistan in exercising its right to defend itself. But there are compelling strategic compulsions that might prevent India from exercising an option that has the potential for greater conflagration between the two countries.
Military action is not the option that New Delhi should consider. India can cut off diplomatic relations, stop railway and air connections. These are, of course, harsh measures. If such actions are implemented, India-Pakistan relations will be the casualty. Voices of reason are very few in both countries. Many things could have been sorted out if there had been confidence between the two countries. Had the ISI Chief come to India as requested by the Prime Minister of India, it would have established the joint mechanism to fight terrorism. Anti-friendly elements are too strong to allow such contacts.
US Senator John McCain has said that if Pakistan does not act against those linked to Mumbai terror attack, India might carry out surgical strikes against such elements. According to him, there is enough evidence of the involvement of former ISI officials in the planning and execution of the Mumbai attack and terrorist training camps are still operating in Pakistan. If Pakistan does not respond fast to arrest the involved people, India will be left with no option but to conduct aerial operation against select targets in Pakistan. Pakistan is in a difficult situation. The US is pressurising Pakistan to do more to contain the terrorists and now India is asking Pakistan to take action against the terrorist connected with Mumbai massacre. The US is sending unmanned flights to Pakistan to strike at the terrorists. This is humiliating for Pakistan. Pakistan is almost pushed to the corner.
The Mumbai incidents were most unfortunate and killing of innocent people cannot be condoned under any circumstances. The India Pakistan dispute is undeniably complicated and requires pragmatism in addressing it. Sadly a high level Pakistan delegation led by no less a person than its foreign minister had to cut short the ongoing visit to India and returned home as a sequel to the incident. Cricket matches and other programmes between the two countries have been abandoned. India is naturally angry. Even at this stage, goodwill and pragmatism must be brought into play for the overall interest of not only India and Pakistan but also for the South Asian region.
India has everybody's support to deal with the issue but has to act with wisdom. It is necessary to deal with the root cause of terrorism. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has called for creating an agency similar to the Homeland Security in the USA, which has been able to stop terrorist attacks after 9/11, hoping this new agency in India would succeed likewise. It may not work that way in India because there are many home-grown terrorist organisations in India whereas the USA has only external terrorists to handle. India has to accept responsibility to tackle home-grown problems. Kashmir issue is on top of the list of the problems. India's treatment of the Muslims has left a lot to be desired. Frequent riots targetting Muslims are both communal and political. The rise of Hindu fundamentalism in India often escapes serious attention as is the case of violence against the Christians. The massacre of 2000 Muslims in Gujrat was caused by Hindu fundamentalists
Pakistan's denial on involvement was flawed. Evidence of their involvement is coming out that rogue elements in Pakistan have helped the operation in Mumbai. The Indian Govt has sent an official note of protest to Pakistan, asking the latter to hand over the most wanted fugitives. Pakistan has now offered a joint investigation. Given the history of distrust between the two countries, it is not conceivable that they would be serious to establish the truth jointly.
Islamabad has come under intense pressure to act against militant groups operating on its soil in the wake of Mumbai attacks. Pakistan has raided a terrorist camp. Fifteen people were arrested in the raid. They have detained two leaders of the banned group Laskhar-e-Taiba. The US has given a cautious welcome to the arrests.
With Barak Obama in charge, expectations are high that the war on terror would be fought unitedly and not by dividing the world, "you are either with us or against us". World opinion is firmly against terrorism. It will depend on how the new US President deals with India and Pakistan in the context of the Mumbai carnage. The US has tremendous leverage over both the countries. The US can bring India and Pakistan to the table to resolve the causes of terrorism in South Asia. The doomsday predictions in the media over the Mumbai massacre seem to have dissipated, paving way for India and Pakistan to deal with the terrorism issue seriously. The ground is now favourable for the US to use her considerable influence on Pakistan govt to delink from any sponsorship of terror groups and obliterate such groups and to urge India to consider the grievances of the minorities and rising Hindu fundamentalisnm to deal with domestic terrorism in the country. While tension between the two neighbours continues to run high, an outbreak of hostilities does not appear likely. There has been no army or navy movement in India so far, although internal security has been raised to high level.
The writer is an economist and columnist