Feasibility of metro rail for Dhaka
Tuesday, 19 February 2008
Engr. Shafiqul Alam
The platform should be set before starting a mega project like underground metro rail. That means that the feasibility study should be carried out. Now questions arise: what is the meaning of the term 'feasibility?' When will this study be undertaken?
Feasibility of a project like underground subway means consideration of pros and cons relating to matters like finding out the best option out of the possible alternatives, estimating cost of the complete set-up and passengers catering capacity, assessing affordability, and coverage of the metro network, evaluation of effects on traffic congestion after introducing metro, calculating return of money, preferably involving no subsidy from the government, analysis of environmental impact and sustainability of such a project, projecting future expansion and effect on the city after its completion, examination of methodology of construction and its significance considering the economy thereof, measuring post-implementation economic gains and reviewing whether it has been feasible in the other countries or it is a test case, implying judging its track record
To find out the possible alternatives, we have to find out first why does traffic congestion exist and what its causes are. Dhaka is one of the most densely populated mega cities in the world, lacking in roads that are far below the international standard.
It has a mixed traffic pattern -- slow and fast moving vehicles sharing the same road. Then the case of alternatives came and the alternatives are mass transit and elevated expressway.
Mass transit is of two types. One is the heavy metro (underground metro) and the other is the light metro (LRT: sky train/mono rail) Considering the population and growth rate, we need to focus on the passengers catering capacity and speed: those are much higher in the case of underground metro than that of LRT.
Elevated Expressway for BRT is also an alternative but speed and passengers catering capacity and speed thereof are about five-six times less than that of metro rail. Again we can never make roads -- up to 25-30% of the area from present 7.0% by constructing expressway above all the roads.
That is why underground metro is the most feasible one.
The metro fare has to be kept just like bus fare, considering the economic condition of the people. Then people of all classes will be able to use metro. The monorail fare would be very high compared to that of metro.
For expressways one has to pay additional toll with fare. This is a burden. Normally expressways are used for the highway buses to move from one end of the city to the other end.
Eighty per cent of city dwellers would get a metro station within one km or less walking distance and all the city entry-points can be connected in this network and all the busiest areas can be covered. Here the existing traffic flow pattern has also to be given preference.
Once metro is introduced, the traffic congestion would be drastically reduced and traffic load would be diverted to the underground. Then people will travel from anywhere to anywhere in the Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) area by subway without using any other transport.
Environmental impact is a matter of great concern because present transport system is liable for heavy pollution omissions from the mechanized vehicles like CO2, CO, Pb etc., have made the environment toxic, hot & humid. In contrast to this, underground metro is totally free from emission. Hence the environment will become human friendly day by day.
Sustainability and future expansion are two important points. Considering the earthquake, cyclone etc., underground metro is the most feasible solution to mitigate traffic congestion because subway tunnels can withstand vibration in the magnitude of Richter scale 9.2 due to sand cushioning.
Future expansion is only possible here as we have seen that six metro lines have crossed a single station in Paris, London and more than one stations in many cities all over the world. This is absolutely impossible for mono rail, sky train or expressways.
If the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is calculated, that will be above the standard value for a private infrastructure project. Hence no subsidy will be required from Government, whereas IRR is negative for mono, sky & expressways.
Both Cut & Cover and Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) methods are used for the construction of tunnel. TBM is very very slow and costly (4-5 times of cut & cover) than Cut & Cover method. If we use TBM, we have to use cut & cover for the stations. That is another drawback of TBM. On the other hand, the selection of construction process depends on the soil and, economic conditions and depth.
As there is always a chance for future expansion, we must use the shallow depth keeping the provision for future expansion. India has used Cut & Cover method and they will use TBM for going beneath the Ganga. Our soil is suitable for Cut & Cover method.
The cost of the complete set-up would be Taka 60-70 billion (6000-7000 crore) by using Cut & Cover method and it will be a BOT (build-operate-transfer) project. The Government of Bangladesh has to pay Tk 60-70 billion (6000-7000 crore) per year as subsidy to import fuel and eventually this unwanted cost would be removed with the introduction of metro. This would definitely be the huge economic gain.
Underground Metro Rail has a proven track record of 150 years and most of the densely populated cities are using this environment friendly transport. Whenever the first network beneath the surface becomes saturated, they are going beneath the first one and so on. When there is no chance of further going underground, then the space above the surface can be used.
The effect would be visible when metro will be in operation -- no congestion, no emission, integrated security, and special amenities with better aesthetic.
Feasibility study reports will have to be considered before floating tenders by the concerned government authority. In a private infrastructure project, the investor studies its feasibility report before participating in the bidding. And the investor would complete the final portion at his own cost after the Letter of Intent (LOI).
No special terms are available in "feasibility". Dhaka is a densely populated mega city i.e. high ridership. Its people are suffering for many years.
That is why metro is feasible here without major risk involvement.
In this regard we can look at voter ID during the tenure of last two government. The experts had told us that the total process would take a long time with huge cost involvement. But the Armed
Forces of Bangladesh have proved that this is a simple job and the work is nearly complete before the projected time. Another point is to be noted that Dr. J R Chowdhury was interested there but his cost approximation and time period was not acceptable by this government.
And our Armed Forces have proved that "too many cook spoil the food"
Finally a request to all -- please don't compare Dhaka with New York because of the economy and the percentage of roads.
Moreover, New York is a developed city for many years. We can compare our condition with that of Calcutta.
The platform should be set before starting a mega project like underground metro rail. That means that the feasibility study should be carried out. Now questions arise: what is the meaning of the term 'feasibility?' When will this study be undertaken?
Feasibility of a project like underground subway means consideration of pros and cons relating to matters like finding out the best option out of the possible alternatives, estimating cost of the complete set-up and passengers catering capacity, assessing affordability, and coverage of the metro network, evaluation of effects on traffic congestion after introducing metro, calculating return of money, preferably involving no subsidy from the government, analysis of environmental impact and sustainability of such a project, projecting future expansion and effect on the city after its completion, examination of methodology of construction and its significance considering the economy thereof, measuring post-implementation economic gains and reviewing whether it has been feasible in the other countries or it is a test case, implying judging its track record
To find out the possible alternatives, we have to find out first why does traffic congestion exist and what its causes are. Dhaka is one of the most densely populated mega cities in the world, lacking in roads that are far below the international standard.
It has a mixed traffic pattern -- slow and fast moving vehicles sharing the same road. Then the case of alternatives came and the alternatives are mass transit and elevated expressway.
Mass transit is of two types. One is the heavy metro (underground metro) and the other is the light metro (LRT: sky train/mono rail) Considering the population and growth rate, we need to focus on the passengers catering capacity and speed: those are much higher in the case of underground metro than that of LRT.
Elevated Expressway for BRT is also an alternative but speed and passengers catering capacity and speed thereof are about five-six times less than that of metro rail. Again we can never make roads -- up to 25-30% of the area from present 7.0% by constructing expressway above all the roads.
That is why underground metro is the most feasible one.
The metro fare has to be kept just like bus fare, considering the economic condition of the people. Then people of all classes will be able to use metro. The monorail fare would be very high compared to that of metro.
For expressways one has to pay additional toll with fare. This is a burden. Normally expressways are used for the highway buses to move from one end of the city to the other end.
Eighty per cent of city dwellers would get a metro station within one km or less walking distance and all the city entry-points can be connected in this network and all the busiest areas can be covered. Here the existing traffic flow pattern has also to be given preference.
Once metro is introduced, the traffic congestion would be drastically reduced and traffic load would be diverted to the underground. Then people will travel from anywhere to anywhere in the Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) area by subway without using any other transport.
Environmental impact is a matter of great concern because present transport system is liable for heavy pollution omissions from the mechanized vehicles like CO2, CO, Pb etc., have made the environment toxic, hot & humid. In contrast to this, underground metro is totally free from emission. Hence the environment will become human friendly day by day.
Sustainability and future expansion are two important points. Considering the earthquake, cyclone etc., underground metro is the most feasible solution to mitigate traffic congestion because subway tunnels can withstand vibration in the magnitude of Richter scale 9.2 due to sand cushioning.
Future expansion is only possible here as we have seen that six metro lines have crossed a single station in Paris, London and more than one stations in many cities all over the world. This is absolutely impossible for mono rail, sky train or expressways.
If the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is calculated, that will be above the standard value for a private infrastructure project. Hence no subsidy will be required from Government, whereas IRR is negative for mono, sky & expressways.
Both Cut & Cover and Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) methods are used for the construction of tunnel. TBM is very very slow and costly (4-5 times of cut & cover) than Cut & Cover method. If we use TBM, we have to use cut & cover for the stations. That is another drawback of TBM. On the other hand, the selection of construction process depends on the soil and, economic conditions and depth.
As there is always a chance for future expansion, we must use the shallow depth keeping the provision for future expansion. India has used Cut & Cover method and they will use TBM for going beneath the Ganga. Our soil is suitable for Cut & Cover method.
The cost of the complete set-up would be Taka 60-70 billion (6000-7000 crore) by using Cut & Cover method and it will be a BOT (build-operate-transfer) project. The Government of Bangladesh has to pay Tk 60-70 billion (6000-7000 crore) per year as subsidy to import fuel and eventually this unwanted cost would be removed with the introduction of metro. This would definitely be the huge economic gain.
Underground Metro Rail has a proven track record of 150 years and most of the densely populated cities are using this environment friendly transport. Whenever the first network beneath the surface becomes saturated, they are going beneath the first one and so on. When there is no chance of further going underground, then the space above the surface can be used.
The effect would be visible when metro will be in operation -- no congestion, no emission, integrated security, and special amenities with better aesthetic.
Feasibility study reports will have to be considered before floating tenders by the concerned government authority. In a private infrastructure project, the investor studies its feasibility report before participating in the bidding. And the investor would complete the final portion at his own cost after the Letter of Intent (LOI).
No special terms are available in "feasibility". Dhaka is a densely populated mega city i.e. high ridership. Its people are suffering for many years.
That is why metro is feasible here without major risk involvement.
In this regard we can look at voter ID during the tenure of last two government. The experts had told us that the total process would take a long time with huge cost involvement. But the Armed
Forces of Bangladesh have proved that this is a simple job and the work is nearly complete before the projected time. Another point is to be noted that Dr. J R Chowdhury was interested there but his cost approximation and time period was not acceptable by this government.
And our Armed Forces have proved that "too many cook spoil the food"
Finally a request to all -- please don't compare Dhaka with New York because of the economy and the percentage of roads.
Moreover, New York is a developed city for many years. We can compare our condition with that of Calcutta.