Filling the statistical gap
Monday, 28 June 2010
Shamsul Huq Zahid
THE Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the national statistical organization, and the Finance Division (FD) have made two different estimates for GDP growth in the outgoing fiscal (2009-10).
The gap in two estimates is 0.5 per cent that, in monetary terms, is equivalent to around $500 million.
The BBS estimate puts the GDP growth at 5.5 per cent and the FD at 6.0 per cent. The GDP growth projection made by the International Monetary Fund earlier for the fiscal 2009-10 is identical to that of BBS. Now the WB says it accepts the BBS data, not the one prepared by the FD which, they say, is not completely clear to them.
It is little wonder that Finance Minister AMA Muhith in his budget speech has claimed the GDP growth to reach 6.0 per cent since he and some of his close associates had time and again dismissed the IMF estimate and stuck to a GDP growth projection at 6.0 per cent or even more. The FD, perhaps, has noticed better performance of some of the macroeconomic indicators in the last quarter of the outgoing fiscal. But its estimate is supposed to be based on BBS data.
The BBS made the projection about GDP growth for fiscal 2009-10 a couple of months back. It is to be seen whether or not the BBS later revises its own projection in line with that of the government. If it does, some people might feel like questioning its credibility as the national statistical organization.
In the absence of any other organization engaged in the collection, compilation and analysis of data, none has openly contested the statistical information dished out by the BBS from time to time. But the fact remains, in many cases, some of the BBS data are accepted with a grain of salt.
The BBS is one of the few national entity which has upazila-level officials entrusted with the task of collecting data besides a workforce engaged in the collection of useful data on priority sectors of the national economy. But the problem with this vital institution, as far as collection of data from the grassroots is concerned, is that it still uses old, outdated and time-consuming procedures. The field-level offices of BBS are not connected either with the district-level offices or with the central office in Dhaka through dedicated computer network.
The process of collection, analysis and dissemination of data by the national accounting wing of the BBS on GDP, consumer price index, export and import etc is very slow and, in many cases, the data are found to be old at the time of their publication. The BBS does not make any quarterly estimate on GDP growth though in the early part of the current decade it had embarked on such estimation on an experimental basis. Similarly, the consumer price index it publishes remains two to three months' old when in neighbouring India the same is available on the monthly basis.
Though we have a large number of chamber bodies and a few so-called private think tanks dealing with both macro and micro economic issues, none has dared taking up the challenging task of collection of data, on a continuous basis, on major areas of the economy. The task, undoubtedly, is enormous and involves a lot of investment in manpower and research.
The trade bodies can play a major role in this connection. Each of them should have a research wing manned by competent people for collection and proper analysis of relevant data on a regular basis. The Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) can collect the data centrally from other trade bodies and prepare its own report periodically covering the developments in a large area of the economy.
But, unfortunately, research and development (R&D) is the most neglected area in Bangladesh. Neither the government nor the private sector is interested in making investment in R&D. The trade bodies spend more of their time lobbying with the government to squeeze out fiscal benefits for their members. When the government takes a decision detrimental to the interests of a particular sector, the trade body concerned can hardly come up with a well-researched report to contest the government move. What the leaders of the concerned trade body do is that they organize a press conference to air their grievances.
It is time for the trade bodies to look at the task of compiling data and engaging in research work sector by sector very seriously. The leaders elected to these bodies would, no doubt, run the show. But the task of R&D should be left to the professionals to make each of the trade bodies better prepared to respond to the government moves and its own need during both good and bad times.
Some analytical works done by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), Dhaka, from time to time, on some major areas of the economy may be mentioned here. But these exercises are not enough. The FBCCI should take the lead to decide how best they can serve their own need for compilation of reliable data, research and development.
THE Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the national statistical organization, and the Finance Division (FD) have made two different estimates for GDP growth in the outgoing fiscal (2009-10).
The gap in two estimates is 0.5 per cent that, in monetary terms, is equivalent to around $500 million.
The BBS estimate puts the GDP growth at 5.5 per cent and the FD at 6.0 per cent. The GDP growth projection made by the International Monetary Fund earlier for the fiscal 2009-10 is identical to that of BBS. Now the WB says it accepts the BBS data, not the one prepared by the FD which, they say, is not completely clear to them.
It is little wonder that Finance Minister AMA Muhith in his budget speech has claimed the GDP growth to reach 6.0 per cent since he and some of his close associates had time and again dismissed the IMF estimate and stuck to a GDP growth projection at 6.0 per cent or even more. The FD, perhaps, has noticed better performance of some of the macroeconomic indicators in the last quarter of the outgoing fiscal. But its estimate is supposed to be based on BBS data.
The BBS made the projection about GDP growth for fiscal 2009-10 a couple of months back. It is to be seen whether or not the BBS later revises its own projection in line with that of the government. If it does, some people might feel like questioning its credibility as the national statistical organization.
In the absence of any other organization engaged in the collection, compilation and analysis of data, none has openly contested the statistical information dished out by the BBS from time to time. But the fact remains, in many cases, some of the BBS data are accepted with a grain of salt.
The BBS is one of the few national entity which has upazila-level officials entrusted with the task of collecting data besides a workforce engaged in the collection of useful data on priority sectors of the national economy. But the problem with this vital institution, as far as collection of data from the grassroots is concerned, is that it still uses old, outdated and time-consuming procedures. The field-level offices of BBS are not connected either with the district-level offices or with the central office in Dhaka through dedicated computer network.
The process of collection, analysis and dissemination of data by the national accounting wing of the BBS on GDP, consumer price index, export and import etc is very slow and, in many cases, the data are found to be old at the time of their publication. The BBS does not make any quarterly estimate on GDP growth though in the early part of the current decade it had embarked on such estimation on an experimental basis. Similarly, the consumer price index it publishes remains two to three months' old when in neighbouring India the same is available on the monthly basis.
Though we have a large number of chamber bodies and a few so-called private think tanks dealing with both macro and micro economic issues, none has dared taking up the challenging task of collection of data, on a continuous basis, on major areas of the economy. The task, undoubtedly, is enormous and involves a lot of investment in manpower and research.
The trade bodies can play a major role in this connection. Each of them should have a research wing manned by competent people for collection and proper analysis of relevant data on a regular basis. The Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) can collect the data centrally from other trade bodies and prepare its own report periodically covering the developments in a large area of the economy.
But, unfortunately, research and development (R&D) is the most neglected area in Bangladesh. Neither the government nor the private sector is interested in making investment in R&D. The trade bodies spend more of their time lobbying with the government to squeeze out fiscal benefits for their members. When the government takes a decision detrimental to the interests of a particular sector, the trade body concerned can hardly come up with a well-researched report to contest the government move. What the leaders of the concerned trade body do is that they organize a press conference to air their grievances.
It is time for the trade bodies to look at the task of compiling data and engaging in research work sector by sector very seriously. The leaders elected to these bodies would, no doubt, run the show. But the task of R&D should be left to the professionals to make each of the trade bodies better prepared to respond to the government moves and its own need during both good and bad times.
Some analytical works done by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), Dhaka, from time to time, on some major areas of the economy may be mentioned here. But these exercises are not enough. The FBCCI should take the lead to decide how best they can serve their own need for compilation of reliable data, research and development.