Food security amid climate change
Nasim Ahmed | Monday, 21 July 2008
There is no way to look at agricultural research as having secondary importance, the first one being production and related activities. This is for the crucial reason of higher productivity to meet the even bigger demands for agro-products from accelerated consumption by the growing population of the country.
But research in agriculture has also acquired a new and more worrisome dimension with climatic changes already noted somewhat in the country as a consequence of global warming. The changes are still not very extensive or alarming. But the recent warning from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), a research organization guided and funded by two United Nations organisations, suggests that Bangladesh is likely to be one of the hardest hit countries in respect of its agriculture due to the global climate change.
Thus, production of rice may drop by 10 per cent and wheat by one-third in Bangladesh by 2050 if agriculture in this country fails to devise appropriate strategies to cope with changing climate. Of course, such coping will be all the more necessary because consumption of cereals will increase substantially with the projected further increases in the Bangladesh population.
The production of rice has fairly well matched population growth in the last three decades. But there is no assurance of maintaining this balance not even in the medium term not to speak of the long term. This is because most of the currently used varieties of rice seeds have reached their saturation point in respect of productivity; further higher yields are not possible from the same. Therefore, the challenge is to introduce more higher yielding seeds. Not only the yield, seeds will need to be also resilient to meet drought conditions and other vagaries of weather which the international experts on climate change are predicting for Bangladesh.
New types of seeds will have to be developed specially for cereals with shorter growing season but producing greater yields. Seeds may have to be developed that would grow well in saline conditions. Increasing saline water intrusion inland from the sea in Bangladesh is feared and that would raise salinity in the coastal districts that would require new types of seeds to grow there resisting the salinity.
Drought is also a looming possibility and seeds will also have to be developed that would withstand drought. Research will have to be relied on even for producing in the laboratory seeds that would be flood resistant or reach maturity fast to avoid the effects of floods. In sum, it is time for Bangladesh to start taking the steps that would add to its food security in the face of climate change.
But research in agriculture has also acquired a new and more worrisome dimension with climatic changes already noted somewhat in the country as a consequence of global warming. The changes are still not very extensive or alarming. But the recent warning from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), a research organization guided and funded by two United Nations organisations, suggests that Bangladesh is likely to be one of the hardest hit countries in respect of its agriculture due to the global climate change.
Thus, production of rice may drop by 10 per cent and wheat by one-third in Bangladesh by 2050 if agriculture in this country fails to devise appropriate strategies to cope with changing climate. Of course, such coping will be all the more necessary because consumption of cereals will increase substantially with the projected further increases in the Bangladesh population.
The production of rice has fairly well matched population growth in the last three decades. But there is no assurance of maintaining this balance not even in the medium term not to speak of the long term. This is because most of the currently used varieties of rice seeds have reached their saturation point in respect of productivity; further higher yields are not possible from the same. Therefore, the challenge is to introduce more higher yielding seeds. Not only the yield, seeds will need to be also resilient to meet drought conditions and other vagaries of weather which the international experts on climate change are predicting for Bangladesh.
New types of seeds will have to be developed specially for cereals with shorter growing season but producing greater yields. Seeds may have to be developed that would grow well in saline conditions. Increasing saline water intrusion inland from the sea in Bangladesh is feared and that would raise salinity in the coastal districts that would require new types of seeds to grow there resisting the salinity.
Drought is also a looming possibility and seeds will also have to be developed that would withstand drought. Research will have to be relied on even for producing in the laboratory seeds that would be flood resistant or reach maturity fast to avoid the effects of floods. In sum, it is time for Bangladesh to start taking the steps that would add to its food security in the face of climate change.