Food security and climate change
Friday, 21 March 2008
Amirul Islam
AGRICULTURAL research in Bangladesh can not have secondary importance. Higher productivity to meet increasing demand depends on agri-research.
Agricultural research acquired a new and more worrisome dimension in the wake of climatic change and its impact on the country. It is the consequence of global warming. The latest warning from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), a research organisation guided and funded by two UN organisations, suggests that agriculture in Bangladesh is likely to be among the hardest hit due to climate change. Production of rice may drop by 10 per cent and wheat by one-third in Bangladesh by 2050 unless an appropriate agricultural strategy is taken to cope with the threatened impact of changing climate. It will be all the more necessary to cope with climate change because consumption of cereals will increase substantially with increasing population of the country.
Production of rice matched population growth in last three decades. But there is no assurance that the trend or the balance would be maintained even in the medium term, not to speak of the long term. This is because most of the rice seed varieties now under cultivation have reached their saturation points of productivity. Higher yields out of them are not possible. The challenge, therefore, is to introduce newer seeds with the potentials to provide higher yields. Seeds would need to be resistant to drought conditions and other vagaries of climate that the IPPC is predicting for Bangladesh.
New types of seeds, specially for cereals, would have to be developed with shorter production time and higher yields. Seeds that would grow well in saline conditions, have to be developed. The feared saline water intrusion from the sea deep into Bangladesh would affect more areas in the coastal districts requiring new types of seeds to grow coping with salinity. There is a looming threat of more persistent and regular droughts. Seeds will also have to be developed that would withstand droughts. Research will have to be intensified to produce flood resistant seeds or a variety to reach maturity fast in the laboratories in order to avoid the flood effects. In sum, it is time for Bangladesh to start taking the steps to ensure food security in the face of climate change.
AGRICULTURAL research in Bangladesh can not have secondary importance. Higher productivity to meet increasing demand depends on agri-research.
Agricultural research acquired a new and more worrisome dimension in the wake of climatic change and its impact on the country. It is the consequence of global warming. The latest warning from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), a research organisation guided and funded by two UN organisations, suggests that agriculture in Bangladesh is likely to be among the hardest hit due to climate change. Production of rice may drop by 10 per cent and wheat by one-third in Bangladesh by 2050 unless an appropriate agricultural strategy is taken to cope with the threatened impact of changing climate. It will be all the more necessary to cope with climate change because consumption of cereals will increase substantially with increasing population of the country.
Production of rice matched population growth in last three decades. But there is no assurance that the trend or the balance would be maintained even in the medium term, not to speak of the long term. This is because most of the rice seed varieties now under cultivation have reached their saturation points of productivity. Higher yields out of them are not possible. The challenge, therefore, is to introduce newer seeds with the potentials to provide higher yields. Seeds would need to be resistant to drought conditions and other vagaries of climate that the IPPC is predicting for Bangladesh.
New types of seeds, specially for cereals, would have to be developed with shorter production time and higher yields. Seeds that would grow well in saline conditions, have to be developed. The feared saline water intrusion from the sea deep into Bangladesh would affect more areas in the coastal districts requiring new types of seeds to grow coping with salinity. There is a looming threat of more persistent and regular droughts. Seeds will also have to be developed that would withstand droughts. Research will have to be intensified to produce flood resistant seeds or a variety to reach maturity fast in the laboratories in order to avoid the flood effects. In sum, it is time for Bangladesh to start taking the steps to ensure food security in the face of climate change.