Food security in South Asia

Abdul Bayes The moment many countries of the world, including Bangladesh, were busy in observing the World Food Day, the agricultural economists of Asia were busy searching for the sources of food insecurity in Asia. It was in a conference of the Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE) held in Hanoi. This writer could read that pessimism pervades, at least for the short run, over the food security issue. But a long-run look to the crisis, and the potentials waiting on the wings, seemingly submits some rays of hope. Dr Mahabub Hossain, a reputed agricultural economist of the world and now the Executive Director of Brac, took on food security of South Asian region in terms of increasing food availability, improving access to food, ensuring quality food and reducing volatility. South Asia's remarkable ride on the road to meeting the challenge of food insecurity is duly documented: food deficit turned into near self-sufficiency; wheat production tripled and rice output doubled; yield rate rose from 1.33 ton per hectare to 3.33 tons per hectare during the period between 197072 and 200608. By and large, the growth in production overtook the growth in population to deny a Malthusian doomsday. The transformation owes much to the Green Revolution that swept South Asia. The increased output resulted in a monotonic decline in rice prices to the benefit of the poor, and food security increased. It has also increased availability of land by pushing up land productivity so much so that it now takes one-third of land to face food security. But all that glitters may not be gold, especially not when it is the green revolution. There were many omissions to invoke the Malthusian gospel now lurking wide on the horizon. For example, the technology helped only the high potential areas (irrigated ones) at the neglect of rain-fed areas; yields over time in those potential areas reached the plateau following water logging, drawdown of underground water and reduction in soil fertility etc. There was again insufficient attention paid to the linkage between agriculture and nutrition and to the important role of women in agriculture on the heels of the lack of ownership of assets and discriminatory treatment in labour market. And finally, the impact of the climatic change on agriculture could never steal the attention of policy makers. Most important of all perhaps is a decline in agricultural investment, especially in research, extension and technology, and complete neglect of the interests of paddy producers. Arguably, this has put South Asia in peril as far as food security is concerned. Dr Hossain is also a practitioner. He has vast experience in theoretical exercise as well as in empirical researches. It is thus no surprising that he comes up with valuable suggestions for policy-makers. First, the yield frontier in high potential areas should be shifted through embracing hybrid, biotechnology, genetic engineering techniques (for example, China has already covered half of the land through hybrid). This could raise the yield level 6.0-7.0 tonnes per hectare in a regime of dwindling farm size. Second, productivity in less favorable ecosystem needs to be elevated by developing new varieties of rice and wheat that are tolerant to salinity and drought. In fact scientific advancement and improved crop husbandry practices have made the task easier now than before. Third, women should increasingly be brought to agriculture through the provisions of credit, training, etc. and by a change in the traditional mind-set. It is true that the rise in rice prices has bred tension among policy-makers in a condition where the poor spend 60 per cent of their incomes on food. In the whole game, there are two scissors: remunerative prices to farmers to keep production incentive up, and a lower price to consumers to give them respite. This can be tackled by raising productivity of farms - even through giving subsidy in the short run to reduce cost of farm inputs- and suitable procurement drive. The paper by Hossain also draws attention on the consumption pattern, especially in rural Bangladesh. The consumption of rice is higher than the minimum requirement (about 500 gmpersonday) against 390 gm); there is marginal deficit for vegetables and fish but a substantial deficit for pulses, oilseeds and livestock products. This points to two policy parameters: dietary diversification to be taken as an important campaign in search of food security, and second, production of non-rice crops should be encouraged through researchextension on improved varieties and supportive infrastructural facilities. If necessity has to be called mother of invention, then South Asia countries are urgently in need immediately devising new techniques of tackling the upcoming food crisis. The deepening crisis is different than the past and hence requires a second green revolution. There are huge potentials to benefit from through advancement of scientific knowledge in production, marketing, information and communication, production practices, utilization of limited arable land etc., that can ensure food security for the South Asian region. South Asia should seize upon the existing knowledge and technology, available elsewhere and those that are hidden in their homeland. The people of this region, which is the hub of the poorest, expect that rhetoric be turned into reality through political commitments. Malthus cannot be allowed to be true. Abdul Bayes is a Professor of Economics at Jahangirnagar University. He can be reached at email: abdulbayes@yahoo.com