Food security under threat

For a nation that is as densely populated as Bangladesh, food availability remains a major headache for policymakers. A report published in March, 2024, titled 'Changing Climate of Bangladesh', jointly prepared by researchers from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and Norwegian Meteorological Institute looks at data spanning more than four decades to observe and analyse the changes in weather and how it has affected food production in the country due to weather-induced changes.
It has been observed that days have not only longer but also hotter and drier. The winters have shortened and there is less rainfall. The low rainfall has caused a crisis of water, a major constraint for irrigation, particularly over the last 15 years or so. At least that is what farmers in the north of the country have stated where annual rice cultivation has fallen by nearly 50 per cent. It is only rainwater-for-irrigation that is the problem. Rather erratic weather conditions like successive droughts have also forced substantial numbers of traditional farmers to give up cultivation altogether.
Rising cost of inputs, particularly farm labour coupled with ground-water extracted water for irrigation have not encouraged, rather discouraged farmers from growing rice - the staple food for all Bangladeshis. The study states that since 2010, fundamental changes in weather have been observed. As one researcher has pointed out that the number of months with extremely hot days doubled with the delayed onset of monsoon that triggered a negative shift in rainfall patten in the country. "This is highly alarming. Monsoon changing its pattern will have consequences for agrarian Bangladesh." High heat, prolonged heat waves (which occurs when the mercury goes beyond 36 degrees Celsius) used to occur between March and May. Since 2010, these hot spells have prevailed over an extended period from June - October.
Although policy and media attention on the economy over the last decade or so has been primarily concerned with expanding the industrial base, one simply cannot ignore that 45 per cent of the current labour force is engaged in agriculture. Any change in monsoon patterns will have serious consequences for agriculture in this country because monsoon rain constitutes 80 per cent of total annual rainfall. Ground water extraction serves as a backup for irrigation and artificial irrigation is both costly and cannot replace natural precipitation on a national scale. Agriculturists interviewed in the study have pointed out that the monsoon period is critical in maintaining soil moisture, which in turn is crucial for plant growth and germination of seed. Hence, when the heat wave covers this extended period of May to October, it plays havoc with the country's major crop season.
Bangladesh's second most important crop 'aman' and vegetables are grown during this period. Agriculturists have pointed out that aman meets up to 40 per cent of the nation's annual demand for rice. Data from Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) points to the fact that aman cultivation have fallen significantly to 5.72 million hectares in FY2021-22 from 7.18 million hectares in FY1971-72. Indeed, the third major crop 'aush' has also witnessed a fall in cultivation but the good news is that despite a fall in cultivation area, rice production has increased many times due to technological innovations over these decades. That however is of little solace because technology can only go so far and unless more land is brought under cultivation, it will become increasingly difficult to raise production.
The study reveals that it is not only rice or vegetables that are being adversely affected by these long hot spells where natural precipitation is dwindling. Last year's jute production was devastated by an unusual hot season. Other crops like sesame, pulses, tuber and root crops, oilseeds (mustard), spices, sugarcane, tea, fruits, etc. have all seen varying degrees of loss of growth and production. While many of these may be imported, it is telling on the economy that is struggling with a foreign exchange crisis.
The natural pattern of seasons has been turned on its head and manmade intervention at policy level is now the need of the hour. Recently, the prime minister declared that solar pumps will be made available throughout the country. This has been a demand by energy experts for more than a decade now. It will be interesting to see how the financial modalities are worked out for the introduction of this tried-and-tested technology. Many successful models exist in the region and it would be prudent to study them thoroughly before implementation. Policymakers also need to revisit the Teesta River Project that has been gathering dust on the shelf for a very long time. While solar pumps will help reduce food production costs, increased extraction of groundwater in the absence of sufficient rainfall is another natural disaster waiting to happen. Surface (river) water management needs to be explored seriously to mitigate irrigation problems because Bangladesh is out of time.

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