For a more predictable management of power and energy gap
Syed Fattahul Alim | Tuesday, 10 March 2009
WITH the advent of summer, the city people are again faced with the old problem of power shortage in the form of load-shedding or outage. The fear is that the problem may take crisis proportions this year given the fact that though the cause of the problem has remained unaddressed, the demand for power has increased in the city as elsewhere. The immediate past caretaker government at the beginning of their term laid much stress on blaming the government preceding them for the entire mess. Unfortunately though, they too could not make much headway in solving the nagging issue. But meanwhile, the cities have grown and the demand for power has also risen proportionately. But the power production which lies at the root of the distribution hiccups like load-shedding has no sign of improving in a significant fashion in the near future.
This year the outages have started earlier than before. And even so early in the summer, the outages are coming frequenter with their durations stretching for longer hours, especially during the day and in the evening hours. The residents from the eastern part of the city are complaining of load-sheddings for inordinately long hours. The situation apart from disrupting the normal city life has put the secondary school certificate examinees in a serious predicament. But the officials of Dhaka power Distribution Company (DPDC), a company that distributes power to different areas of the city, has passed the buck to the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB), which is in charge of allocating the power to different agencies distributing power in the city. The outages, what the power agency officials said, are due to diversion of 'under frequency relay' by PGCB that caused tripping in the transmission lines in the affected areas concerned in the city. In fact, by whatever name we may call it, the problem has to do with the age-old gap between demand and supply, which has only widened further in recent times.
While demand for power in the greater Dhaka city is around 1800 MW, the actual supply being made available under areas covered by DPDC, Dhaka Electric Supply Company (DESCO) and Palli Bidyut Samity is between 1100 and 1150 MW. So, there is hardly any other means at hand to the power distribution agencies than to meet the gap through distributing it in different areas by means of load management. The tripping of the transmission lines in the eastern part of the city recently has also been due to diversion of what power officials call 'under frequency relay.' But such kind of disruptions in power supply in different forms is only increasing people's plight in the city, hampering production in the factories and work in offices.
PGCB officials, however, have tried to explain the situation putting the power need of agriculture as an excuse because the crop fields have to be irrigated in this time of the year. But DPDC officials have refused to accept this explanation referring to the government order to the effect that no irrigation pump should be operated between 6 am and 11 pm.
But the power outages, if it continues in this way causing immense suffering to public life, may have other consequences than just economic. We have witnessed in the past how power shortages can trigger public outrage inciting the affected residents to turn into violent mobs attacking power supply offices, physically assaulting the power department staffs and causing widespread law and order problem. The DPDC officials in question again expressed their fear about the repetition of such law and order problem connected with disruptions of power supply with the summer getting hotter every passing day.
But the capital city of Dhaka is not the only centre of the problem. The whole nation will be suffering more this summer as the total power demand has far outstripped the capacity of the country's production units to meet it.
But what can possibly the government do at this moment to solve the problem? Many offices, factories, marketplaces and residential quarters are already using diesel-run generators to meet the emergencies. It is a rather costly stop-gap measure. What is worse, the nation has to depend totally on the import for oil and has also to suffer due to the uncertainties regarding the price and supply of this item in the international market. And as if to add fuel to the flames, the supply of gas on which most of the power plants of the country depend has also started to fall off. The prediction of the experts is that the gas from the fields already in operation will be exhausted by 2011. Such prospects are not only a bad news for the power generation prospects of the country, it also spells doom for its domestic as well as industrial users. But the scenario of a 'gas-less and power-less' days are also not remote. The signs of the days of ultimate power and energy crunch have started to show up at this moment as a large numbers of industrial units in Chittagomg have to be shut down due to gas crisis. In fact, the dangers are piling up in the gas and energy sector inexorablty.
The digression of the narrative in the present write-up from the power shortage problem in the capital city to the overall power and energy situation in the country is not incidental. In reality, both are inextricably connected in our particular situation. We are already walking a tight rope on the energy and power front. The international oil companies that are engaged in exploration activities on shore as well as in the offshore blocks in the Bay have also no ready answer in their hands until they carry out their exploration phase before finally entering the phase of extraction. The US oil and gas giant, Chevron, which has about 40 per cent stake in the country's gas production is scheduled to start gas exploration activities in the Block-7 in the southern part of the country next month. But if their survey comes up with good result, they will then proceed to invest in the operational part of the task. But it is still is a long way to go before the gas will flow through the pipelines. But meanwhile our needs have reached its peak. We do not also see any immediate solution from the coalmines of the country.
Many ideas are afloat to meet the fuel and power emergencies through import of power through cross border transmission lines and gas in liquid form from neighbouring countries like Myanmar and India. But that idea too has also started to fade away. Green solution to the power \issue is also in its preliminary stage. Solar panels are yet to become popular and cost-effective. But apart from domestic use, for industrial and commercial use of power on a massive scale, the renewable energy is still to become a viable answer.
Under the circumstances, the nation should seek a more dependable and pragmatic solution to the power and energy issue to avoid becoming non-functional state in the near future.
The power crisis now hitting the general purpose as well as the commercial users should be addressed in a systematic fashion depending on the priority of the users in all the sectors. At the same time, the outages or load-shedding should not continue in a random fashion, for though consumers are prepared to accept the limitations of power generation system, still they would not like unpredictability in the supply and distribution of whatever amount is available in the generation and the distribution units. So, the management of the power gap should be done in such a manner that it is predictable so that the consumers may plan their use accordingly. The same should be the way to manage the shortage of gas supply to its users through the pipelines.
The long and the short of it is that, granted there is shortage in power and energy at he source and that we will have to live with it until better days are coming. Even then the consumers would like to see a management that would manage the gap systematically, smoothly and of course in a predictable fashion.
This year the outages have started earlier than before. And even so early in the summer, the outages are coming frequenter with their durations stretching for longer hours, especially during the day and in the evening hours. The residents from the eastern part of the city are complaining of load-sheddings for inordinately long hours. The situation apart from disrupting the normal city life has put the secondary school certificate examinees in a serious predicament. But the officials of Dhaka power Distribution Company (DPDC), a company that distributes power to different areas of the city, has passed the buck to the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB), which is in charge of allocating the power to different agencies distributing power in the city. The outages, what the power agency officials said, are due to diversion of 'under frequency relay' by PGCB that caused tripping in the transmission lines in the affected areas concerned in the city. In fact, by whatever name we may call it, the problem has to do with the age-old gap between demand and supply, which has only widened further in recent times.
While demand for power in the greater Dhaka city is around 1800 MW, the actual supply being made available under areas covered by DPDC, Dhaka Electric Supply Company (DESCO) and Palli Bidyut Samity is between 1100 and 1150 MW. So, there is hardly any other means at hand to the power distribution agencies than to meet the gap through distributing it in different areas by means of load management. The tripping of the transmission lines in the eastern part of the city recently has also been due to diversion of what power officials call 'under frequency relay.' But such kind of disruptions in power supply in different forms is only increasing people's plight in the city, hampering production in the factories and work in offices.
PGCB officials, however, have tried to explain the situation putting the power need of agriculture as an excuse because the crop fields have to be irrigated in this time of the year. But DPDC officials have refused to accept this explanation referring to the government order to the effect that no irrigation pump should be operated between 6 am and 11 pm.
But the power outages, if it continues in this way causing immense suffering to public life, may have other consequences than just economic. We have witnessed in the past how power shortages can trigger public outrage inciting the affected residents to turn into violent mobs attacking power supply offices, physically assaulting the power department staffs and causing widespread law and order problem. The DPDC officials in question again expressed their fear about the repetition of such law and order problem connected with disruptions of power supply with the summer getting hotter every passing day.
But the capital city of Dhaka is not the only centre of the problem. The whole nation will be suffering more this summer as the total power demand has far outstripped the capacity of the country's production units to meet it.
But what can possibly the government do at this moment to solve the problem? Many offices, factories, marketplaces and residential quarters are already using diesel-run generators to meet the emergencies. It is a rather costly stop-gap measure. What is worse, the nation has to depend totally on the import for oil and has also to suffer due to the uncertainties regarding the price and supply of this item in the international market. And as if to add fuel to the flames, the supply of gas on which most of the power plants of the country depend has also started to fall off. The prediction of the experts is that the gas from the fields already in operation will be exhausted by 2011. Such prospects are not only a bad news for the power generation prospects of the country, it also spells doom for its domestic as well as industrial users. But the scenario of a 'gas-less and power-less' days are also not remote. The signs of the days of ultimate power and energy crunch have started to show up at this moment as a large numbers of industrial units in Chittagomg have to be shut down due to gas crisis. In fact, the dangers are piling up in the gas and energy sector inexorablty.
The digression of the narrative in the present write-up from the power shortage problem in the capital city to the overall power and energy situation in the country is not incidental. In reality, both are inextricably connected in our particular situation. We are already walking a tight rope on the energy and power front. The international oil companies that are engaged in exploration activities on shore as well as in the offshore blocks in the Bay have also no ready answer in their hands until they carry out their exploration phase before finally entering the phase of extraction. The US oil and gas giant, Chevron, which has about 40 per cent stake in the country's gas production is scheduled to start gas exploration activities in the Block-7 in the southern part of the country next month. But if their survey comes up with good result, they will then proceed to invest in the operational part of the task. But it is still is a long way to go before the gas will flow through the pipelines. But meanwhile our needs have reached its peak. We do not also see any immediate solution from the coalmines of the country.
Many ideas are afloat to meet the fuel and power emergencies through import of power through cross border transmission lines and gas in liquid form from neighbouring countries like Myanmar and India. But that idea too has also started to fade away. Green solution to the power \issue is also in its preliminary stage. Solar panels are yet to become popular and cost-effective. But apart from domestic use, for industrial and commercial use of power on a massive scale, the renewable energy is still to become a viable answer.
Under the circumstances, the nation should seek a more dependable and pragmatic solution to the power and energy issue to avoid becoming non-functional state in the near future.
The power crisis now hitting the general purpose as well as the commercial users should be addressed in a systematic fashion depending on the priority of the users in all the sectors. At the same time, the outages or load-shedding should not continue in a random fashion, for though consumers are prepared to accept the limitations of power generation system, still they would not like unpredictability in the supply and distribution of whatever amount is available in the generation and the distribution units. So, the management of the power gap should be done in such a manner that it is predictable so that the consumers may plan their use accordingly. The same should be the way to manage the shortage of gas supply to its users through the pipelines.
The long and the short of it is that, granted there is shortage in power and energy at he source and that we will have to live with it until better days are coming. Even then the consumers would like to see a management that would manage the gap systematically, smoothly and of course in a predictable fashion.