Fresh WTO talks must wait until next year
Monday, 4 August 2008
PARIS, Aug 3 (Agencies): Any new attempt to grasp the grail of a world trade pact will probably have to wait until next year, after elections in the United States and India, despite some calls for more talks now, economists say.
The head of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Pascal Lamy, who stressed after the collapse of the talks in Geneva last week that the gains made in nine days must remain on the table, revealed Friday that talks at technical level were in fact continuing.
He also said he expected to visit India in a week's time and perhaps the United States later.
He was referring to two of the countries at the centre of the emotional breakdown of talks which, participants agreed, had almost joined hands across a deep gulf over special arrangements for protection against a flood of imports.
And a senior WTO official told newsmen: "It seems practically impossible to conclude negotiations before the end of the year.
"The idea is to continue to advance to be able to present a package all tied up to the new US administration and to India after the (US presidential) elections," he said.
Meawnhile, Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said: "The talks will not be able to resume until after the American elections."
Stiglitz said a quick resumption of the talks was all the more unlikely because it is "difficult to negotiate an accord when unemployment is on the rise and the economy is weakening."
India, one of the key players at the talks, is also facing elections at the end of the year, which leaves the government little room for concessions.
The audacious attempt in Geneva to break apart a seven-year logjam in the so-called Doha round of trade opening talks, hit deadlock between India and the US over the so-called special safeguard mechanism.
This enables countries to impose a special tariff on certain agricultural goods in the event of an import surge or price fall.
Stiglitz was scathing of Washington's insistence that extra duties should be imposed only if imports surged by 40 per cent.
Stiglitz said there might be a better chance of reaching agreement following the US presidential elections in November.
Some countries, however, have not hidden their satisfaction at seeing the Doha round paralysed again. Italy is among a group of nine European countries, including France and Ireland, who believe that Europe had made too many concessions.
French agriculture minister Michel Barnier has suggested opening talks with other institutions such as the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation and the International Monetary Fund.
Stiglitz, however, said that it would be difficult to shift the negotiations to other organisations.
Germany, meanwhile, wants to resume discussions as quickly as possible.
Elie Cohen, an economist with France's National Institute of Scientific Research, shares the view that nothing can be done until there is a new administration in the White House.
He expects an increase in the number of regional and bilateral accords before any resumption of talks.
When Colombia negotiates on its own with the United States, it is in a worse position than under a global free trade agreement, he argued.
Developing countries have the most at stake.
African cotton producers such as Mali, Benin, Burkina Faso and Chad were hoping for a reduction in Chinese and American subsidies on cotton.
They returned home without even being able to begin negotiations. Their industry, on which 20 million people depend, is now facing collapse.
Meanwhile, China's commerce minister has called the collapse of trade liberalisation talks a heavy blow, telling state media his country will brace for more trade friction and pursue closer regional cooperation.
Developed countries have blamed India and China for not giving enough ground at the WTO talks that ended in Geneva Tuesday, failing to strike a deal on lifting barriers to trade in farm goods and other goods.
But in an interview with the Chinese-language People's Daily, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming pressed his country's case that wealthy countries were the culprits.
"The setback to the negotiations is a heavy blow to the world multilateral trade system and is no help to the stable development of global trade at present," Chen, who attended the talks, said in the interview published on Sunday.
The WTO talks on a new global trade pact collapsed when the United States and India refused to compromise over a proposal to help farmers in the developing world cope with floods of imports.
Meanwhile, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced yesterday that he has launched consultations with the United States, China and India to salvage world trade talks that recently collapsed.
Lula said he had discussed the issue with US President George W Bush by telephone and would speak next week with Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao during his visit for the Olympic Games and will call Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
"I remain optimistic about negotiations resuming," Lula said in Sao Paulo after a meeting with unions.
"Since I plan to speak with Prime Minister Singh, President Hu Jintao, and already did so with Bush, we will see if it is possible to return to the negotiating table," he said.
The head of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Pascal Lamy, who stressed after the collapse of the talks in Geneva last week that the gains made in nine days must remain on the table, revealed Friday that talks at technical level were in fact continuing.
He also said he expected to visit India in a week's time and perhaps the United States later.
He was referring to two of the countries at the centre of the emotional breakdown of talks which, participants agreed, had almost joined hands across a deep gulf over special arrangements for protection against a flood of imports.
And a senior WTO official told newsmen: "It seems practically impossible to conclude negotiations before the end of the year.
"The idea is to continue to advance to be able to present a package all tied up to the new US administration and to India after the (US presidential) elections," he said.
Meawnhile, Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said: "The talks will not be able to resume until after the American elections."
Stiglitz said a quick resumption of the talks was all the more unlikely because it is "difficult to negotiate an accord when unemployment is on the rise and the economy is weakening."
India, one of the key players at the talks, is also facing elections at the end of the year, which leaves the government little room for concessions.
The audacious attempt in Geneva to break apart a seven-year logjam in the so-called Doha round of trade opening talks, hit deadlock between India and the US over the so-called special safeguard mechanism.
This enables countries to impose a special tariff on certain agricultural goods in the event of an import surge or price fall.
Stiglitz was scathing of Washington's insistence that extra duties should be imposed only if imports surged by 40 per cent.
Stiglitz said there might be a better chance of reaching agreement following the US presidential elections in November.
Some countries, however, have not hidden their satisfaction at seeing the Doha round paralysed again. Italy is among a group of nine European countries, including France and Ireland, who believe that Europe had made too many concessions.
French agriculture minister Michel Barnier has suggested opening talks with other institutions such as the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation and the International Monetary Fund.
Stiglitz, however, said that it would be difficult to shift the negotiations to other organisations.
Germany, meanwhile, wants to resume discussions as quickly as possible.
Elie Cohen, an economist with France's National Institute of Scientific Research, shares the view that nothing can be done until there is a new administration in the White House.
He expects an increase in the number of regional and bilateral accords before any resumption of talks.
When Colombia negotiates on its own with the United States, it is in a worse position than under a global free trade agreement, he argued.
Developing countries have the most at stake.
African cotton producers such as Mali, Benin, Burkina Faso and Chad were hoping for a reduction in Chinese and American subsidies on cotton.
They returned home without even being able to begin negotiations. Their industry, on which 20 million people depend, is now facing collapse.
Meanwhile, China's commerce minister has called the collapse of trade liberalisation talks a heavy blow, telling state media his country will brace for more trade friction and pursue closer regional cooperation.
Developed countries have blamed India and China for not giving enough ground at the WTO talks that ended in Geneva Tuesday, failing to strike a deal on lifting barriers to trade in farm goods and other goods.
But in an interview with the Chinese-language People's Daily, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming pressed his country's case that wealthy countries were the culprits.
"The setback to the negotiations is a heavy blow to the world multilateral trade system and is no help to the stable development of global trade at present," Chen, who attended the talks, said in the interview published on Sunday.
The WTO talks on a new global trade pact collapsed when the United States and India refused to compromise over a proposal to help farmers in the developing world cope with floods of imports.
Meanwhile, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced yesterday that he has launched consultations with the United States, China and India to salvage world trade talks that recently collapsed.
Lula said he had discussed the issue with US President George W Bush by telephone and would speak next week with Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao during his visit for the Olympic Games and will call Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
"I remain optimistic about negotiations resuming," Lula said in Sao Paulo after a meeting with unions.
"Since I plan to speak with Prime Minister Singh, President Hu Jintao, and already did so with Bush, we will see if it is possible to return to the negotiating table," he said.