From youth movement to regime fall

Two economists -- Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson -- have just received the Nobel Prize in Economics for their outstanding work in the space of institutional and political economics in shaping the development of a nation. Their co-authored book 'Why Nations Fail' is the most widely known piece of work they did, and a relevant intriguing read at this moment for the citizens of Bangladesh for several reasons. The title of this article is inspired by the content of that book, lightly focusing on the recent political uprisings of Bangladesh based on technical anecdotes and evidence transcending from the labour-market issues to the fall of a political regime and citizens' rights.
Bangladesh experienced a dramatic political uprise and fall of a regime in early August 2024 faced by a "youth-led" protest. Initially, the protest targeted a "provocative" job-reservation scheme in the public-sector jobs that disproportionately favoured the descendants of the freedom fighters of the Bangladesh Liberation War that was fought in 1971. In practice, the youth of the country believed that this scheme was indeed a political tool to induce partisans into the bureaucracy for the pursuit of enormous political strength that was not only sustainable in favour of the regime but also amenable.
When the youth of the country rely heavily on public jobs? Why is the demand for public jobs so high that further points out the discriminatory discrepancy of the "Quota" system to objectively promote a 'non-meritocratic' approach while choosing the future administrators and leaders of the country? This article sheds light on the significant preference for government jobs among the youths in Bangladesh.
The inclination towards these roles stems from two key factors: firstly, from the limited availability of formal employment opportunities in the private sector and secondly, from the dearth of "decent jobs" that offer job security, consistent income, competitive salaries, social-security benefits, and clear career -progression paths.
The attractiveness of government positions was notably enhanced by the previous administration through a revision of the salary structure, particularly in entry-level grades like 9th and 6th. These grades have become prime targets for recent graduates seeking public-sector employment due to the revised salary packages surpassing average market wages and reasonable private-sector salaries.
Moreover, challenges such as job scarcity, demanding networking requirements, job instability, long working hours, poor work-life balance, inadequate social-security provisions, and limited career- advancement opportunities in private-sector roles further amplify the appeal of government jobs to the youth post-salary adjustments.
The heightened allure of government employment has led to a surge in youth expectations, especially in cracking public-service exams. However, the presence of schemes and a "quota" system has hindered the entry of candidates solely based on merit and preparation, sparking widespread discontent among the jobseekers. This simmering discontent culminated in significant 'Youth Protests' in Bangladesh, prompting the resignation of the previous political regime that had held power for the past 15 years.
This writeup illustrates the complex dynamics influencing youth- employment preferences in Bangladesh and underscores the pivotal role of governmental policies and societal structures in shaping career aspirations and opportunities.
It is important to investigate some of the key labour-market and- economic features of the country that act as clear evidence of youth's dissatisfaction and their reaction to government jobs. The economic base of the country is shifting from agriculture, which now constitutes only 11 per cent of GDP, toward greater industrialisation and service orientation, with these sectors accounting for 38 per cent and 51 per cent of the economy, respectively. Despite agriculture's reduced share in GDP, it continues to employ 45 per cent of the population--26-percent women and 19-percent men. Conversely, the service and industrial sectors employ 38 per cent of which 6.0 per cent is women and 32 per cent men. They account for 17 per cent-- 3.0-percent women and 14-percent men -- of the labour force, respectively.
According to ILOSTAT, Bangladesh has a labour -force-participation rate of 49.5 per cent (total), with 78.5-percent males and 21.25-percent females. The employment-population ratio is 46.8 per cent in total, with 75-percent males and 19.1-percent females. The unemployment rate is 5.6 per cent with 4.5 per cent for males and 9.7 per cent for females. The youth unemployment rate is 16.8 per cent: for males, it is 14.8 per cent and for females, it is 22.7 per cent. Now, the share of youth not in employment, education or training (NEET) in Bangladesh is 30.9 per cent, with 11.1 per cent males and 49.3 per cent females.
This labour-market situation depicts the challenges labour market and employment situation in Bangladesh, especially the vulnerability of women and youth on the labour market. Besides, the sluggish growth rate of employment compared to the economic growth of the country has been a big concern for many years.
In 2022, about 61 per cent of employed youths were working as self-employed which increased significantly from 43.8 per cent in 2017, while the share of those engaged in self-employment, specifically as own-account workers, surged from 25.1 per cent to 49.9 per cent. Own -account work is often characterised as vulnerable work. The challenges of structural transformation are particularly pronounced among youth. The share of young workers employed in agriculture increased from 27.7 per cent to 41.7 per cent, while their employment in manufacturing dropped by 10- percentage points, from 25.5 per cent to 14.5 per cent between 2017 and 2022. Youth employment in the services sector also fell sharply, from 37.6 per cent to 26.7 per cent between 2017 and 2022.
The youth of the country probably did not study the data, facts, and figures as a part of their protest. It also doesn't happen that way. The voice of the citizens against discrimination, inequality, poor governance, law and order, and economic issues does not take too much data, stats, and figures into consideration, and that's not important either. However, if one does the backward induction and takes a deep dive into the labour-market indicators concerning the youth, it becomes easier to connect the dots.
The youth movement that started for jobs and discrimination in employment opportunities, eventually widened its wings towards freedom of speech, right to speak, political rights, political oppression, authoritarianism, "extractive state-sponsored institutions" and personnel. These topics are also well -found with empirical evidence in the literature and works of Acemoglu and Robinson who just won the Nobel Prize in economics. Building a nation is not an easy task, but breaking a nation's future may not appear as difficult as one would imagine if the political and institutional motivation is intended to be 'power hunger' and 'state capture' too. From July-August 2024, hundreds of innocent, eager promising minds of the country were killed by the political regime that governed the country for the last 15 years.
At the end of the day, if in a democratic country the voting system is ruined, and the right to vote is snatched from its citizens, why would any political party care about the voters? Why would the political party care about youths who are the new and future long-term vote-banks?
Therefore, the youth of this country not only want equal opportunities on the job market but also they want better jobs, a better access to their citizens' as well as political rights, they want to enjoy the liberty of expressing their ideas, rights or wrongs, strong or weak, they want to position their mind and intension in shaping their and country's future together. And opportunities to these elements in the society they pursue will not only make them grow as responsible citizens but also help them contribute to shaping the future of the nation.

The writer is a labour economist, working for the ILO.
[email protected]