GDP of Bangladesh, its computation and the computers

I could have dealt with the size of the national budget for fiscal year (FY) 2011-12 at length covering the current expenditures, their sectoral distributions indicating priorities including social safety nets and subsidies, the Annual Development Programme (ADP) of Tk 460 billion (46,000 crore) and its implementability, budget deficits and their final outcome. This could have been done in the backdrop of delay due to the reservations of the major donors such as the World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) etc., regarding transparency about one large infrastructure project namely the Padma bridge, and opposition by the present occupants, the Bangladesh Air Force, of a publicly-owned land with regard to the alignment of the project of the City Expressway and the Metro Rail. But I would like to desist myself from discussing those oft-beaten economic and financial issues because they are all to our knowledge and writings on them have been quite galore to a great extent. I, therefore, propose to dilate on an altogether different issue in my current write-up. It is on a dissection of Bangladesh's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI) and their prospects in the medium term and I would like to keep it short. GDP covers the goods and services that are produced within the country, while the GNI also includes the inflow of remittances into the country by its nationals from abroad. GDP and GNI data of FY11: Some data compiled by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) with regard to GDP and GNI of last fiscal are in my hand. They show that the GDP in FY 2010-11 swelled by about US$9.0 billion to reach from $100.6 billion to $109.4 billion. This indicated an increase by 6.6 per cent at constant prices. On the other hand, the GNI had reached the figure of $118.45 billion on account of buoyant remittance inflow during the same fiscal. Composition of the said GDP: To the GDP of $109.4 billion of fiscal 11, contribution of the manufacturing sector had been $19.23 billion as against that of $16.68 billion of the previous one. This was composed of two sub-sectors: (a) large and medium industries contributing $13.73 billion while, (b) the balance of $ 5.5 billion came from small industries. The second overall position had been taken by the wholesale and retail trade which contributed $15.82 billion, while the third position had gone to agriculture and forestry as a sub-sector whose contribution to GDP of last year had been to the tune of $15.75 billion, only marginally behind the trade sub-sector. Per capita GDP and Gross National Income (GNI) and their trend of growth: The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) estimated last year's population size to be 147.90 million, very close to recent world survey report of that figure being 160 million in a world population of 700 billion which has been reported only the other day. We may compliment our personnel in BBS for having done a commendable job in making the population projection. I will come to the computation of national statistics later. Going along with the BBS statistics, per capita GDP at constant prices last fiscal had been $758 against that of $687 in the previous fiscal. On the other hand, GNI of fiscal 11 had been $818 against $751 of the previous one, showing an increase by $67 on the year-on-year basis indicating a leap by about 9.0% in the face of an increasing size of the population. Base year of BBS's calculations of GDP and GNI: We understand BBS still uses the production and price data of FY 1995-96 as the base. If the base year is updated and the emerging manufacturing, trading and services sectors as of to-day are dovetailed into the GDP package, we believe the present GDP size would be much higher. I do not have the ultimate answer and would like to leave it for the experts to extrapolate. We have noted a recent view of Prof. Shamsul Alam, the Chief of the state-owned 'think-tank' called the General Economics Division in the Planning Commission, that if the economic activities generated in the rural areas which are quite vibrant on account of large inflow of remittances can be fully captured, the size of the GDP will be still larger. He was even confident that with the realised impressive growth rates of GDPGNI, as in last fiscal, Bangladesh may emerge as a middle-income country even before 2021 as visualised by the government. We would not like to make any presumption on that account and would like the experts to debate and analyse the realities. Computation of GDP and GNI: We would now like to enter into the complexities of computing the GDPGNI of any country. This is the job of experts in statistics, well-trained and properly equipped; this has to be appreciated that the recipe that they produce helps the government and the planners alike to make correct assessments of the on-going economic scenario and make pragmatic projections for the future. The leader of such a technical group has to be equally, if not more, educated, trained, equipped and motivated. We had such a leader for a long period of time in the person of Dr AKM Ghulam Rabbani, who has recently expired virtually unsung. I have not come across any obituary reference for him from any quarters including his own service colleagues. Dr Rabbani was a Kali Narayan Scholar (KNS) in Statistics from Dhaka University, a recognition of rare academic excellence. Perhaps after having a short stint of teaching he opted for the Civil Service of Pakistan and he was a member of 1956 batch. He was a very sobre, soft-spoken and dedicated civil servant. But having headed a low-profile department of the government, the Department of Statistics, he was not much of a known person. That only shows how statistics and their compilation are relegated to a lower stratum, whereas it should have been the other way round as all government departments, academic institutions, research organisations and business houses have, somehow or other, depend upon statistics and statisticians for their infallible final product. Though a little out of context, I like to name the 10 members of 1956 batch to show how brilliant all of them were and how no one else needs any introduction. They have been recorded as they appear in the Gradation list of that year in order of merit. They are: 1. Kazi Fazlur Rahman; 2. Salahuddin Ahmed; 3. Abul Maal Abdul Muhith; 4. Late Dr AKM Ghulam Rabbani; 5. ABM Ghulam Mustafa; 6. Late AS Hifzul Kader Sadique; 7. Mohd Khurshid Anwar; 8. Mohd Sayed-uz-Zaman; 9. KGM Latiful Bari; and 10. Abu Mohd Anisuz-Zaman. A gallaxy of stars indeed! While some of them shone more than others, the fourth one -- here Dr Rabbani -- did make a remarkable contribution to the economy through compilation of statistics with rigour and leaving no scope for making any mistakes therein. We would like to record our high appreciation for his services to the nation and finally would like to see a better recognition of such committed civil servants. Let the statistics department be given its due recognition in any manner as the government thinks fit. With this analysis of the country's GDPGNP with the expectation of Bangladesh becoming a middle-income country by 2021 and hoping for a much higher status and recognition of the role of the statisticians, I would like to dedicate this small article of mine to late Dr AKM Rabbani. He was senior to me by one year. The writer is a former Governor of Bangladesh Bank and former Principal Finance Secretary of the Government of Bangladesh. He can be reached at email: alamk1230@gmail.com