Georgia's Saakashvili tries to answer war critics
Saturday, 8 November 2008
Matt Robinson
President Mikheil Saakashvili has dismissed his prime minister and military chief to try to deflect criticism of his handling of Georgia's disastrous five-day war with Russia.
But even if the sackings go some way towards answering his critics, Saakashvili's fate is more likely to be decided by the economy and progress with democratic reforms than by the actions of his political opponents.
"Any president after war, and the outcome of this war, is weakened," said Alexander Rondeli of the Georgian Foundation for Security and International Studies.
"If he continues the process of democratisation he will stay. If not, it will be difficult."
Critics say Saakashvili, a pro-Western leader who is backed by the United States and came to power in the 2003 "Rose Revolution", took Georgia into a war with Russia in August that it could not win or afford.
Russian tanks and troops fought off an assault by Georgian forces in early August that had been intended to retake the breakaway South Ossetia region from pro-Russian separatists.
The Georgian army was routed and young, inexperienced reservists were involved in a chaotic retreat.
Several thousand Russian troops remain in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another separatist region that has broken away from Tbilisi's rule. Tens of thousands of displaced people are still homeless and, with winter approaching and the global financial crisis spreading, Georgia faces deep economic problems.
Economic growth in the former Soviet republic of 4.5 million people has shrunk from double digits to a forecast of 3.5 percent in 2008, and pledges of international assistance worth billions of dollars offer little hope of a quick recovery.
For now, Saakashvili appears secure and the opposition looks weak and divided, political analysts say.
"But as time goes by he could face problems," said Lawrence Sheets of the International Crisis Group think tank, based in Brussels. "If the economy becomes bad, social discontent could rise. A lot depends on the economy."
Saakashvili responded to his critics by replacing Lado Gurgenidze as prime minister on Oct. 27 and removing Zaza Gogava as military chief of staff on Tuesday, hoping to show his determination to address the problems.
Analysts said Gogava had pulled few punches over the army's poor performance when he gave testimony to a parliamentary commission investigating the war.
Announcing Gogava's dismissal, Saakashvili told a televised meeting with Defence Ministry officials that "the shortcomings we uncovered must be eliminated".
Gurgenidze, a successful banker who worked hard to attract foreign investment, had seemed increasingly uncomfortable operating as prime minister in a war environment. Much of his work remained unfinished.
His 35-year-old Western-educated successor, former Turkey ambassador Grigol Mgaloblishvili, is unlikely to challenge Saakashvili.
Opposition politician Nino Burjanadze, a former ally of Saakashvili, said the new prime minster was a good diplomat.
"But this is not a person capable of being prime minister in today's Georgia. It will be very difficult for him to work in this position, especially with the existing team," Burjanadze said.
A protest planned by some opposition factions on Friday, the first anniversary of a police crackdown on opposition demonstrators, will gauge discontent with the president.
Last year's crackdown shocked Saakashvili's Western backers and fuelled criticism of the autocratic streak that his political enemies say he has shown since coming to power.
The West, including Washington, has called for greater freedom for the media, judiciary and political opposition. Sensitive to the criticism, Saakashvili has promised reforms. — Reuters
President Mikheil Saakashvili has dismissed his prime minister and military chief to try to deflect criticism of his handling of Georgia's disastrous five-day war with Russia.
But even if the sackings go some way towards answering his critics, Saakashvili's fate is more likely to be decided by the economy and progress with democratic reforms than by the actions of his political opponents.
"Any president after war, and the outcome of this war, is weakened," said Alexander Rondeli of the Georgian Foundation for Security and International Studies.
"If he continues the process of democratisation he will stay. If not, it will be difficult."
Critics say Saakashvili, a pro-Western leader who is backed by the United States and came to power in the 2003 "Rose Revolution", took Georgia into a war with Russia in August that it could not win or afford.
Russian tanks and troops fought off an assault by Georgian forces in early August that had been intended to retake the breakaway South Ossetia region from pro-Russian separatists.
The Georgian army was routed and young, inexperienced reservists were involved in a chaotic retreat.
Several thousand Russian troops remain in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another separatist region that has broken away from Tbilisi's rule. Tens of thousands of displaced people are still homeless and, with winter approaching and the global financial crisis spreading, Georgia faces deep economic problems.
Economic growth in the former Soviet republic of 4.5 million people has shrunk from double digits to a forecast of 3.5 percent in 2008, and pledges of international assistance worth billions of dollars offer little hope of a quick recovery.
For now, Saakashvili appears secure and the opposition looks weak and divided, political analysts say.
"But as time goes by he could face problems," said Lawrence Sheets of the International Crisis Group think tank, based in Brussels. "If the economy becomes bad, social discontent could rise. A lot depends on the economy."
Saakashvili responded to his critics by replacing Lado Gurgenidze as prime minister on Oct. 27 and removing Zaza Gogava as military chief of staff on Tuesday, hoping to show his determination to address the problems.
Analysts said Gogava had pulled few punches over the army's poor performance when he gave testimony to a parliamentary commission investigating the war.
Announcing Gogava's dismissal, Saakashvili told a televised meeting with Defence Ministry officials that "the shortcomings we uncovered must be eliminated".
Gurgenidze, a successful banker who worked hard to attract foreign investment, had seemed increasingly uncomfortable operating as prime minister in a war environment. Much of his work remained unfinished.
His 35-year-old Western-educated successor, former Turkey ambassador Grigol Mgaloblishvili, is unlikely to challenge Saakashvili.
Opposition politician Nino Burjanadze, a former ally of Saakashvili, said the new prime minster was a good diplomat.
"But this is not a person capable of being prime minister in today's Georgia. It will be very difficult for him to work in this position, especially with the existing team," Burjanadze said.
A protest planned by some opposition factions on Friday, the first anniversary of a police crackdown on opposition demonstrators, will gauge discontent with the president.
Last year's crackdown shocked Saakashvili's Western backers and fuelled criticism of the autocratic streak that his political enemies say he has shown since coming to power.
The West, including Washington, has called for greater freedom for the media, judiciary and political opposition. Sensitive to the criticism, Saakashvili has promised reforms. — Reuters