Getting rid of poverty, statistically

The country will have no poor people only after three years, according to Finance Minister AMA Muhith.
He told a group of journalists last Saturday that the rate of poverty in 2019 will come down to 11 per cent. That percentage will actually be made up of disabled, widows and elderly people only, meaning that there would be no able-bodied poor people.
That will be mere 'statistical' eradication of poverty. The elimination of poverty in its true sense is likely to elude the policymakers for many more years.
However, the 'statistical' elimination of poverty would necessitate more than 7.0 per cent GDP (gross domestic product) growth in next three years and consequent rise in per capita income. If such developments take place, the country would achieve the much-touted middle income country (MIC) status in 2019.
The per capita income level, according to growth statistics presented by Planning Minister AFM Mustafa Kamal late last week for the outgoing fiscal (2014-15), has already taken the country to the lower MIC status.
However, the desired level of GDP growth which is a sine qua non for all the dreams coming true is dependent on a number of 'ifs' and 'buts'. And those 'ifs' and 'buts', in many cases, did not work in line with the desire of the official policymakers in recent years.  That is why the GDP growth rate has been hovering around 6.0 per cent.
So, the first and foremost question is: Will the impediments to achieving the desired level of economic growth be properly addressed in the next three years and help the country to become even statistically poverty free?
The growth of GDP does also raise the per capita income. According to official estimate, the per capital income at the end of the current financial year would be US$1314, representing a 10.42 per cent rise over that of the last fiscal. The increase in per capita income does also have a bearing on the poverty level. The rise contributes to fall in the incidence of poverty in the country.
The factors impeding the pace of economic growth are more or less known. The major ones include inadequate investment in productive activities, poor infrastructure, energy crisis, systemic corruption, poor skill level of the population, lack of capacity of the public sector development agencies and political instability.
Of late the last factor has emerged as the key area of concern. While the government is doing its best to improve infrastructure and energy supply situation, investment by the private sector, considered the engine of growth, has been highly inadequate. Though the planning minister estimated a marginal rise in investment-GDP ratio, the private sector representative bodies have been highlighting the opposite view.  
In fact, the private investment has remained stagnant for the last couple of years, primarily due to political instability. The political situation at the moment is calm and quiet and business activities have picked up following the cessation of the disruptive political programmes by the main opposition alliance. Yet the private sector people are not convinced that such a situation would last over a long period.
The situation with infrastructures might improve to some extent in the next three years. But any spectacular improvement in the situation is unlikely. Going by the current level of seriousness on the part of other government ministries and agencies, it is also hard to expect any notable change in the pace of implementation of development projects and the creation of a large pool of skilled population within such a short time.
In addition to the issues mentioned above, there are factors such as skewed development activities and discrimination in allocation of resources to various regions of the country. The outcome of such biases is well manifested in the higher poverty rate prevailing in some particular regions of the country.
Some people tend to sell their view that poverty has become non-existent in the country since the farm labourers have become scarce in some parts of the country or the rate of wage the day labourers are asking is as high as Tk 350 to Tk 400.  
Instead of looking at the issue of poverty superficially, it would be better to know how many jobs are created annually both in the private and public sectors as against the number of people, skilled or otherwise, entering the country's labour market during the same period. Undeniably, the poverty situation has improved at a reasonable pace during the last two and a half decades. But getting rid of this problem might take more time than what has been projected by the finance minister.
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