Global companies hit by more than $35b in US tariffs, but outlook stabilising

WASHINGTON, Oct 20 (Reuters): Global companies have flagged more than $35 billion in costs from US tariffs heading into third-quarter earnings, but many are lowering their initial forecasts as new trade deals reduce exposure to President Donald Trump's levies.
Trump's trade war has hiked US tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s, and the president has regularly threatened more duties, but overall, the fog that paralyzed many businesses is clearing, allowing executives to forecast costs and make plans - including some price hikes.
Companies expected a combined financial hit of $21.0 billion to $22.9 billion for 2025, with an impact of nearly $15 billion calculated for 2026, according to a Reuters analysis of hundreds of corporate statements, regulatory filings and earnings calls between July 16 and September 30.
The total of more than $35 billion compares with $34 billion tallied in May, shortly after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April rattled global supply chains. But the trajectory masks a shift: the increase is largely due to Toyota's $9.5 billion estimate. Many other companies have lowered their earlier worst-case forecasts after Trump reached lower-rate trade deals with the EU and Japan. The figures combine annual and partial-year estimates from an overlapping group of firms. Both groups include about 60 firms.
French spirits makers Remy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard both lowered estimates of tariff pain after the EU deal, while Sony in August cut its forecast. Trump also carved out exceptions, with only about a third of Brazil's exports facing a 50 per cent tariff, for instance.
"Tariffs are getting clearer and clearer. And we believe that tariffs will be just another variable of our business equation that we need to be ready to manage, and we will," Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa told Reuters in a mid-October interview, introducing new details of a $13 billion, four-year investment in US manufacturing. Stellantis in July warned of a 1.5 billion-euro this year.
"I think there is this sense that we reached a kind of landing point with some of the bilateral trade deals," said International Chamber of Commerce Deputy Secretary General Andrew Wilson.