Global wheat production forecast at 673m tonnes
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
Global production of wheat for 2009/10 is forecast at 673.9 million tonnes whereas global consumption at 646.7 million tonnes, according to the USDA. Canada's production forecast is increased 2.5 million tonnes to 26.5 million in December, which is still 2.1 million lower than in 2008/09.
The increase is based on a Statistics Canada survey that indicated improved harvesting conditions due to favorably sunny and dry late season weather in November, resulting in considerably higher than expected yields that are the third-highest on record. Wheat production is also adjusted upward in the last month of 2009 for EU-27 by 0.3 million tonnes to 138.3 million, following the latest Italian harvest report.
Another small upward change is for Belarus, where wheat output is increased 0.15 million tonnes to 1.85 million. The only reduction in wheat production for 2009/10 is made for Australia, down 1.0 million tonnes as compared to USDA's earlier projections in November.
Taking consumption forecast of December as compared to last month, a 1.0-million-ton reduction in wheat feed use is forecast for EU-27, where poultry production is down in several countries and distillers dried grains with soluble (DDGS) have been increasingly substituted for wheat in animal feed rations. Projected feed use is up in Canada by 0.2 million tonnes, reflecting increased wheat availability.
World wheat ending stocks for 2009/10 is up reaching 190.9 million tonnes.
--Commodity Online
Increased 2009/10 wheat production and reduced consumption more than compensate for a 1.0- million-ton reduction in beginning stocks that occurred following the downward revision to wheat output in 2007/08 and 2008/09. World wheat trade in 2009/10 for the July-June marketing year is projected to be 123.9 million.
The start of October 2009 marks the beginning of the 2009-10 wheat marketing year for Australia. According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), wheat production is forecast to be 22 million tonnes in 2009-10.
Harvesting is complete in Queensland, nearing completion in New South Wales and well underway in the other states. South Australia and Victoria are forecast to have higher yields than last year, but high temperatures in November in Victoria followed by heavy rains in both States will likely affect wheat quality.
In contrast, New South Wales and Queensland recorded very much below average rainfall during spring. The dry conditions resulted in an earlier than normal harvest in Queensland and higher grain protein. However, wheat production in Queensland is forecast to be 1.25 million tonnes in 2009- 10, compared with 1.8 million tonnes produced last season.
In New South Wales, below-average spring rainfall and warm temperatures followed by frosts reduced wheat yields. Dry conditions in the latter stages of spring in Western Australia's cropping regions have resulted in yields being lower than earlier forecasts. Rainfall has also caused some interruptions to harvest and concerns over crop quality. Moreover, recent wildfire is another concern in Western Australia.
Wheat production in India has witnessed 17 per cent increase over the last five years while the minimum support price of this major food grain moved up by 70 per cent. The year 2009 saw India achieving a record production and procurement of wheat which has helped in maintaining very comfortable food grain stocks with government agencies.
The stock of wheat in the Central Pool as on 1.12.2009 was 25.2 million (252 lakh) tonnes. Moreover, the current season's rabi sowing progress indicates higher level of output compared to the last season. The government has decided to go for electronic trading of wheat for bulk consumers like flour millers to boost sales of the grain in the open market using trading platform of NCDEX and MCX to offer wheat under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS).
Under OMSS, FCI has offered 1.5 million tonnes wheat in the first tranche in four states - Delhi, Haryana, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh. The government's bid to sell wheat stocks through e-auction is expected to start in January under OMSS. Grain Futures Wheat Futures introduced on NCDEX platform in July 2004. However, futures trading in this major food grain were banned in February 2007. Later on, the grain was re-introduced for futures trading in May 2009.
The increase is based on a Statistics Canada survey that indicated improved harvesting conditions due to favorably sunny and dry late season weather in November, resulting in considerably higher than expected yields that are the third-highest on record. Wheat production is also adjusted upward in the last month of 2009 for EU-27 by 0.3 million tonnes to 138.3 million, following the latest Italian harvest report.
Another small upward change is for Belarus, where wheat output is increased 0.15 million tonnes to 1.85 million. The only reduction in wheat production for 2009/10 is made for Australia, down 1.0 million tonnes as compared to USDA's earlier projections in November.
Taking consumption forecast of December as compared to last month, a 1.0-million-ton reduction in wheat feed use is forecast for EU-27, where poultry production is down in several countries and distillers dried grains with soluble (DDGS) have been increasingly substituted for wheat in animal feed rations. Projected feed use is up in Canada by 0.2 million tonnes, reflecting increased wheat availability.
World wheat ending stocks for 2009/10 is up reaching 190.9 million tonnes.
--Commodity Online
Increased 2009/10 wheat production and reduced consumption more than compensate for a 1.0- million-ton reduction in beginning stocks that occurred following the downward revision to wheat output in 2007/08 and 2008/09. World wheat trade in 2009/10 for the July-June marketing year is projected to be 123.9 million.
The start of October 2009 marks the beginning of the 2009-10 wheat marketing year for Australia. According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), wheat production is forecast to be 22 million tonnes in 2009-10.
Harvesting is complete in Queensland, nearing completion in New South Wales and well underway in the other states. South Australia and Victoria are forecast to have higher yields than last year, but high temperatures in November in Victoria followed by heavy rains in both States will likely affect wheat quality.
In contrast, New South Wales and Queensland recorded very much below average rainfall during spring. The dry conditions resulted in an earlier than normal harvest in Queensland and higher grain protein. However, wheat production in Queensland is forecast to be 1.25 million tonnes in 2009- 10, compared with 1.8 million tonnes produced last season.
In New South Wales, below-average spring rainfall and warm temperatures followed by frosts reduced wheat yields. Dry conditions in the latter stages of spring in Western Australia's cropping regions have resulted in yields being lower than earlier forecasts. Rainfall has also caused some interruptions to harvest and concerns over crop quality. Moreover, recent wildfire is another concern in Western Australia.
Wheat production in India has witnessed 17 per cent increase over the last five years while the minimum support price of this major food grain moved up by 70 per cent. The year 2009 saw India achieving a record production and procurement of wheat which has helped in maintaining very comfortable food grain stocks with government agencies.
The stock of wheat in the Central Pool as on 1.12.2009 was 25.2 million (252 lakh) tonnes. Moreover, the current season's rabi sowing progress indicates higher level of output compared to the last season. The government has decided to go for electronic trading of wheat for bulk consumers like flour millers to boost sales of the grain in the open market using trading platform of NCDEX and MCX to offer wheat under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS).
Under OMSS, FCI has offered 1.5 million tonnes wheat in the first tranche in four states - Delhi, Haryana, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh. The government's bid to sell wheat stocks through e-auction is expected to start in January under OMSS. Grain Futures Wheat Futures introduced on NCDEX platform in July 2004. However, futures trading in this major food grain were banned in February 2007. Later on, the grain was re-introduced for futures trading in May 2009.