GP warns of Q1 slowdown on global, domestic strains

Grameenphone has projected a modest year-on-year decline in its financial performance for the first quarter of 2026, citing mounting pressures from global geopolitical tensions and domestic economic challenges.
The country's largest telecom operator said in a stock exchange filing on Tuesday that its revenue for the January-March period is anticipated to fall by around 2 per cent from Tk 38.35 billion recorded in the same quarter last year.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA)-a key indicator of operating profitability-are also forecast to decline by approximately 3 per cent year-on-year from the 57.4 per cent margin reported in the first quarter of 2025.
Although the quarter is yet to conclude, the company issued forward-looking guidance to inform investors of emerging trends affecting its performance.
The disclosure triggered a negative response in the stock market, with GP's share price plunging 1.34 per cent to Tk 251.1 on Tuesday on the Dhaka Stock Exchange.
The telecom operator attributed the likely downturn largely to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted global energy markets. The resulting volatility in fuel supplies and sharp increases in import costs have begun to strain Bangladesh's economy.
According to GP, rising fuel prices, higher import bills, and logistical bottlenecks are creating indirect pressure on telecom operations.
"Energy constraints can influence network operations, infrastructure maintenance, and overall service delivery costs," the company noted.
Alongside global uncertainties, Grameenphone highlighted a challenging domestic economic environment marked by persistent inflationary pressure, currency volatility, and subdued consumer spending.
The company observed early warning signs such as reduced mobility, disruptions in business activities, and declining household disposable income-factors that directly influence telecom usage.
Industry insiders noted that while telecom services are essential, usage patterns-particularly for data and voice-can still be affected during periods of economic stress as consumers tighten spending.
Adding to the headwinds, recent seasonal storms across different parts of the country have also affected network infrastructure. The company said adverse weather conditions can increase maintenance costs and temporarily impact service quality in affected regions.
Despite the challenges, the telecom operator reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining service quality and supporting customers during uncertain times. The operator said it is closely monitoring the evolving situation and taking measures to mitigate risks.
It emphasized priorities such as ensuring service continuity, strengthening operational resilience, and maintaining network reliability-key to sustaining customer trust.
"The situation remains fluid," the company said, adding that detailed insights into its financial and operational performance will be provided in its official Q1 2026 financial results.
Analysts believe the outlook reflects broader vulnerabilities in the country's economy, particularly its dependence on imported energy and exposure to external shocks, which continue to pose risks to corporate performance across sectors.
Meanwhile, GP reported its lowest annual profit in eight years at Tk 29.6 billion in 2025, largely driven by cost pressures linked to recent investments in spectrum, a depreciating currency, and a high tax burden.
Due to lower profit, the company declared a 105 per cent final cash dividend, resulting in a total payout of 215 per cent for the year, compared to the 330 per cent cash dividend paid for 2024.

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