Greek crisis steals show at ECB meeting
Friday, 7 May 2010
LISBON, May 6 (AFP): The European Central Bank holds one of its most important meetings ever today as governors try to prevent the Greek debt crisis from overwhelming other eurozone countries.
"The main issue is not Greece per se but the gathering contagion to the rest of the eurozone," economist Nouriel Roubini said as financial market pressure began to bear down on Portugal and Spain.
Portugal is one of the countries seen as most ripe for contagion, but the decision to meet in Lisbon was taken more than a year ago, months before the Greek debt crisis erupted.
The European Union and International Monetary Fund agreed last week to a three-year rescue package worth 110 billion euros (143 billion dollars) to help Athens pay its debts in exchange for austerity cuts that have stoked public anger.
Greek President Carolos Papoulias said the nation had "reached the edge of the abyss" on Wednesday as violence during protests left three people dead.
Meanwhile, financial markets have given the bail-out plan a "frosty response," Ben May from Capital Economics said.
On top of hesitation by EU leaders, the ECB did an unprecedented volte face this week by saying it would accept Greek debt as collateral for central bank loans even if the debt was downgraded to junk status, as the ratings agency Standard and Poor's has done.
The move provided crucial relief to Greek banks and the government but dented the central bank's credibility.
"The overall sense remains one of a rather confused and disjointed reaction by EU policymakers to the complex and serious challenges raised by the Greek crisis," UniCredit chief economist Marco Annunziata said.
Now, "it cannot be ruled out that the ECB will eventually have to resort to more aggressive measures such as buying government bonds in the secondary market to stop the contagion," Roubini added.
ING rates strategist Padhraic Garvey called this "the nuclear option as it would taint the ECB both politically and in terms of its asset/liability mix."
It could however be the only viable option left, he noted, since "only the ECB can print euros to save the system."
On more stable ground, the ECB governing council will undoubtedly leave the bank's main interest rate at one per cent, marking a full year at that record low point. Bank governors will probably also note improved economic prospects for the 16- nation eurozone, where industrial output has strengthened and confidence among businesses and households has improved.
The economy is set to grow by a better-than-expected 0.9 per cent this year, the EU Commission said Wednesday,
The ECB's target of keeping inflation just below two per cent is not a real problem either, though the euro's sharp drop against major currencies amid the Greek crisis might put pressure on energy prices in the coming months.
On Wednesday, Europe's single currency traded at 1.2887 dollars, after hitting a one-year low of 1.2804 dollars, while stock markets tumbled and the yield on 10-year Greek and Portuguese bonds climbed higher.
Analysts at French bank BNP Paribas warned that "authorities do not look as though they know what they are doing.
"Still less do they look in control of the situation."
"The main issue is not Greece per se but the gathering contagion to the rest of the eurozone," economist Nouriel Roubini said as financial market pressure began to bear down on Portugal and Spain.
Portugal is one of the countries seen as most ripe for contagion, but the decision to meet in Lisbon was taken more than a year ago, months before the Greek debt crisis erupted.
The European Union and International Monetary Fund agreed last week to a three-year rescue package worth 110 billion euros (143 billion dollars) to help Athens pay its debts in exchange for austerity cuts that have stoked public anger.
Greek President Carolos Papoulias said the nation had "reached the edge of the abyss" on Wednesday as violence during protests left three people dead.
Meanwhile, financial markets have given the bail-out plan a "frosty response," Ben May from Capital Economics said.
On top of hesitation by EU leaders, the ECB did an unprecedented volte face this week by saying it would accept Greek debt as collateral for central bank loans even if the debt was downgraded to junk status, as the ratings agency Standard and Poor's has done.
The move provided crucial relief to Greek banks and the government but dented the central bank's credibility.
"The overall sense remains one of a rather confused and disjointed reaction by EU policymakers to the complex and serious challenges raised by the Greek crisis," UniCredit chief economist Marco Annunziata said.
Now, "it cannot be ruled out that the ECB will eventually have to resort to more aggressive measures such as buying government bonds in the secondary market to stop the contagion," Roubini added.
ING rates strategist Padhraic Garvey called this "the nuclear option as it would taint the ECB both politically and in terms of its asset/liability mix."
It could however be the only viable option left, he noted, since "only the ECB can print euros to save the system."
On more stable ground, the ECB governing council will undoubtedly leave the bank's main interest rate at one per cent, marking a full year at that record low point. Bank governors will probably also note improved economic prospects for the 16- nation eurozone, where industrial output has strengthened and confidence among businesses and households has improved.
The economy is set to grow by a better-than-expected 0.9 per cent this year, the EU Commission said Wednesday,
The ECB's target of keeping inflation just below two per cent is not a real problem either, though the euro's sharp drop against major currencies amid the Greek crisis might put pressure on energy prices in the coming months.
On Wednesday, Europe's single currency traded at 1.2887 dollars, after hitting a one-year low of 1.2804 dollars, while stock markets tumbled and the yield on 10-year Greek and Portuguese bonds climbed higher.
Analysts at French bank BNP Paribas warned that "authorities do not look as though they know what they are doing.
"Still less do they look in control of the situation."