Growth performance of the economy
Wednesday, 5 December 2007
If the growth performance of the economy is sustained at over 6.0 per cent which the central bank has projected for fiscal 2007-08, then all would be amazed by the magic of its (economy's) shook-absorbers. The central bank, according to a Tuesday's report in the FE, said in its latest Monetary Policy Review (October 2007), that projection for gross domestic product (GDP) growth "for FY 08 is in the range of 6.2 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The recently invitiated policy strategies and reform programmes would create brighter projects of growth enabling the country to achieve the targeted growth in FY 08".
While all concerned would agree that the economy would reap the benefits of all growth-supporting reform programmes that are also aimed at promoting good governance, it is, however, difficult to understand how the pace of economic growth would be maintained during the current fiscal when the natural disasters -- two successive floods and the cyclone, Sidr -- have caused a havoc. Both crop and non-crop agricultural sectors including fisheries and livestock have borne the brunt of the fury of the nature. Industries and services sectors have also been badly impacted. There are already negative signs of production performance in all related key sectors of the economy. Private investments have furthermore been sluggish as the investors, both actual and potential, are hesitant to go ahead with any new investment activities. Trading activities right down to the rural areas are in a downswing. Whether one many like it or not, confidence is still largely missing among all economic operators for a variety of factors. Under such circumstances, our common sense contradicts the bold optimistic projection by the central bank about the economy's performance in the current fiscal. If the central bank considers such a common sense as a subjective error in judgement, then it must identify more clearly the areas which will support the growth momentum of the economy. And those areas must be real ones.
Abul Khair
Malibagh,
Dhaka
While all concerned would agree that the economy would reap the benefits of all growth-supporting reform programmes that are also aimed at promoting good governance, it is, however, difficult to understand how the pace of economic growth would be maintained during the current fiscal when the natural disasters -- two successive floods and the cyclone, Sidr -- have caused a havoc. Both crop and non-crop agricultural sectors including fisheries and livestock have borne the brunt of the fury of the nature. Industries and services sectors have also been badly impacted. There are already negative signs of production performance in all related key sectors of the economy. Private investments have furthermore been sluggish as the investors, both actual and potential, are hesitant to go ahead with any new investment activities. Trading activities right down to the rural areas are in a downswing. Whether one many like it or not, confidence is still largely missing among all economic operators for a variety of factors. Under such circumstances, our common sense contradicts the bold optimistic projection by the central bank about the economy's performance in the current fiscal. If the central bank considers such a common sense as a subjective error in judgement, then it must identify more clearly the areas which will support the growth momentum of the economy. And those areas must be real ones.
Abul Khair
Malibagh,
Dhaka