Harsh realities in power sector

The greatest World Cup show began on June 12. Ramadan also begins by the last week of June. Demand for power will be at the highest during this time. People will have to suffer loadshedding this time because of the wide gap between demand for power and production.
According to PDB sources, power production capacity is 10,561 megawatts (MW) but actual production is 6,818MW. The government estimate of maximum demand is 7,000MW but consumer demand is 10,000MW to 12,000 MW.So loadshedding  will be to the extent of 3 to 5 thousand MW. Although established capacity is10,561MW, derated capacity is 9,947MW. Production is less by 900MW due to gas shortage. About 1,200MW is under process of retirement. Production is short by 132MW in hydropower for water shortage. Power from India is short by 162MW as against 500MW. About 758MW will be short due to shutdown. Some power stations will be shut for maintenance.
About 285MW of power was supposed to come from Ghorasal, Gaganagar and Sirajganj but it has become uncertain. The state minister of power was saying that during World Cup footfall and Ramadan, efforts are under way to increase power production. The Petrobangla is also trying to augment gas supply. Officials in charge have been asked not to allow loadshedding during ajan, iftar, tarabi, sehri and World Cup matches.
Shops will be closed after 8pm.There will be no illumination. If any transformer is damaged, it should be replaced immediately.
The Finance Minister has said that gap between electricity demand and supply should not exceed 20 per cent to ease public sufferings. Currently the country's electricity demand has reached around 11,000MW and the maximum supply is around 7,000MW, meaning that the gap is around 36.36 per cent. This gap must be reduced. He would consider some of the proposals related to power transmission and distribution to ensure better electricity supplies.
The Power Division is worried about uninterrupted supply of power during the World Cup matches and holy Ramadan. In Ramadan, excess power will be needed for iftar, tarabi and sehri. Excess power will also be needed during World Cup matches. Distribution companies are asking for adequate power supply from the government. According to the Power Division, the extra power needed for Ramadan and World Cup can not be produced.
In this situation, an urgent meeting was held in the Power Division. The power production and distribution chiefs were present. The Power Secretary presided over the meeting. It was decided in the meeting to manage the situation through load management. According to the PDB, power production can not exceed 7,000MW.  Oil- based power stations were in operation to the maximum. On June 11, the quick rentals burnt oil to the extent of Tk 510 million. In spite of this, power production stood at 6,545MW. Because of gas shortage, production was less by 700MW. Power plants to the extent of 2,064MW remained closed on that day. Therefore, power cannot be produced according to need.
Medium-term power plants of the government did not materialise. As a result, the government has to depend on high-cost quick rentals. The BPC's subsidy will increase for increasing import duty on fuel oil. This will increase the cost of fuel oil. This will also increase the subsidy of the PDB. Higher cost will not enable the authorities to maintain uninterrupted power supply.
The state minister of power assured that there would be no loadshedding during World Cup matches. But the Power Division is of the view that it will be impossible to keep the country free from loadshedding during this time. Because, there are many problems in power supply and infrastructure sectors. Initiative has been taken to keep the power supply normal. In the meantime, the extent of loadshedding has increased in the capital and countryside. Many power plants cannot run to full capacity due to gas shortage.
The PDB has taken measures to keep loadshedding to the minimum during World Cup and Ramadan. Shops will remain open up to 8pm. No power will be supplied to industrial establishments during peak hours (6pm to 11pm). Shopping malls will refrain from illumination. Air-conditioners will not be run during peak hours. If any transformer goes out of order, it will be replaced within 24 hours.
The PDB has shown zero loadshedding which is surprising to the consumers. Loadshedding has now taken a serious turn. Power production is 6,000MW but supply is 5,500MW. Demand is 7,000MW. Every day loadshedding is 1,500MW. The Power Division is busy propagating success of power supply.
Although the PDB has been given the target of producing 7,500MW, it could not exceed this target for a day. The 2,200MW power stations are closed for technical faults. The 421MW is closed for gas shortage. Distribution lines are old. Sub-stations and transformers are overloaded. The Energy Regulatory Commission has given the assurance of satisfactory service delivery when price is increased. But the BERC is confined to such assurances only.
Bangladesh has received $600 million assistance from the World Bank to reduce system losses and enhance the capacity of rural electricity network. The project will reduce technical losses in the rural grid electricity system, improving quality of supply for 25 million  people in rural Bangladesh.
This project will provide support to upgrade the network as well as strengthen the institutional capacity of rural electricity service delivery. State-run Rural Electrification Board and the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh will implement the project. This is good news but consumers look for normal power supply. The government has to ensure uninterrupted power supply. Let us hope for the best.
The writer is an economist
and columnist
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