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Has Yingluck Shinawatra weathered the political crisis?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury | Sunday, 9 March 2014



The political unrest in the south east Asian nation of Thailand appears to have receded in recent days, but concerns continue to rise over the duration of the government. The polling to the rest of the parliamentary constituencies, which were not covered by the February 02  voting, has taken place amidst boycott by the main opposition party while the protestors calling for government's exit have also kept up their agitation -- albeit in a subdued form. As the number of the anti-government protestors has dwindled, prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra appears to have weathered the storm to some extent. But it is the legitimacy of her government that haunts her authority; it remains a major headache for the administration.
The elections in Thailand are now over, but hardly anyone thinks that the polls would help resolve the debilitating political crisis in the country. The voting on February 02 went off rather peacefully, barring in some areas, and this came as a shot in the arm of the government of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Nevertheless, the balloting remains a big question since the main opposition party and the protestors, demanding the resignation of the government, boycotted the polls, raising serious doubts about the credibility of the electoral outcome. The results have not been announced, but few have interest in it since its outcome in the one-sided elections is a foregone conclusion. Later, the balloting in the rest of the constituencies also went off quite peacefully. But the heat and sound of a normal democratic election lacked in both the phases and this is evidently a thorn for the prime minister.
Protestors clamoured for the postponement of the voting on both the occasions, saying they want drastic reforms in the system of governance, and asked for the formation of a "Peoples Council" that would govern the country. The demonstrators, who are creating a big headache for the government, feel that Thailand needs to get rid of "unjust and corrupt" politicians. However, their leader, Suthep Thaugsuban, now says that the "illegitimate" government would meet its natural death. The main opposition, Democratic Party, has boycotted the elections, which the prime minister called for, much ahead of the expiry of her normal tenure in office.  
As the political crisis in the Kingdom of Thailand has abated to some extent, speculations are rife in capital, Bangkok, and elsewhere in the country that some kind of reconciliation is needed for ensuring political stability. The tourists are once again crowding the country, but a lurking fear of political trouble chases them, despite a semblance of normality.
Analysts say that if the stability fails to return, the army may, at one stage, intervene. The army had earlier staged a coup against the elected government of Thaksin Shinawatra, the self-exiled former prime minister and elder brother of present premier Yingluck Shinawatra.
The south East Asian nation is in the grip of a severe political crisis as the protestors demanding the ouster of the government of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra remain unrelenting in implementing their demand. The prime minister has vowed not to resign and called mid-term polls on February 02, which remained at the centre of the controversy. The stand-off is unlikely to be resolved as the two sides have adopted diametrically opposite positions on the issue. Yingluck remains the caretaker head of the government.
 Thailand, famed for tourist attractions, recently faced the most volatile conditions in last several years. As the unrest was escalating and a tense situation prevailed, the country was in the focus of the international media. Analysts kept their fingers crossed about the shape of things to come in the days ahead, as many were speculating some developments after an emergency had been declared before the polls.
However, many others believe that the present uneasy condition may continue for some more time and both sides will test each other's nerve and ability to confront the situation. The King, who is highly revered, may also intervene unless the situation improves considerably.
Yingluck Shinawatra made history by becoming the first women prime minister of the country following a resounding victory by her political party in the elections that were followed by the recent debatable polls. A relatively stranger in politics, she owes the success largely to the coattail of her elder brother and former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, who lives abroad. Thaksin was quite popular in the parts of the rural areas in Thailand and also with different segments of the population belonging to the middle class. But the billionaire businessman-turned-politician was ousted by a military coup in 2007 and was also sentenced to prison terms on allegation of corruption. He has been living abroad for last few years and did not return to Thailand even after his political party, led by her sister, won the polls and formed the government.
Clearly, Thaksin Shinawatra did not want to embarrass the government although impression gained in the country that it was he who was calling the shots on important issues. Recently, the government sought to pardon him, facilitating his comeback to the country, but the attempt failed. But this infuriated a large number of people, who thronged the streets in the capital city of Bangkok, demanding that the government must go. Initially in small numbers, the protestors grew in strength and the authorities grappled to contain the snowballing condition. Now, the protests have disappeared to an extent, but their leaders say that they would stick to the demand for exit of Yingluck's government.
 The protestors are pursuing a quixotic goal of ridding the country of the influence of Thaksin Shinawatra. They say they are frustrated with his dominance and also disillusioned with the current democratic practice. An alternative to democracy has also been coined -- the constitution of a "People's Council" with leading figures of different professions. The government, not surprisingly, has poured cold water on the proposal. The main opposition, Democratic Party, wants polls under a neutral authority and has distanced itself from the demand of "Peoples Council".
 Thailand is not known for having a stable democracy as the parliamentary form of government has been afflicted mainly with politician's mistakes or actions that have not been compatible with hopes and aspirations of the people. Yingluck should not have shown unnecessary leniency to her brother, Thaksin, who is otherwise quite influential even if he is not physically present in the country because of problems related to his sentence.
The government is popular with farmers in most of the rural areas while the opposition and protestors are strong in Bangkok and several other places. The prime minister is also facing accusations about her alleged failure to remain clean over the country's rice policies and such charges against her are being handled by the national anti-corruption agency. This is also a problem for Yingluck.
 True, elections have not changed the government even when they are highly unrepresentative. But for the sake of the interest of the second largest economy of the south-east Asia, analysts feel that Thailand needs to reach some kind of understanding between the ruling party and the opposition, failing which the country may witness a derailment of democracy or further instability. Thailand is not in turmoil for the last several days, but the reasons for an undercurrent of political tensions are not far to seek. Some understanding is required to make its system of governance truly representative.
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