How Bangladesh will feed 280 million people in 2051?
Wednesday, 5 November 2008
Tina Haider
Bangladesh is already the most densely populated country in the world with its total area of 55,598 square miles (143,999 kilometres). In this small landmass of 55,598 square miles its population is now about 150 million people. In 1971, only 75 million people lived in the same landmass. The population has doubled in the last 36 years, but the land area has not. To make things worse, some areas of Bangladesh, as the prediction goes, will go below the sea in the future.
According to a 2005 article on the website of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare: "With a population of 135.2 million and estimated per capita GDP at $421 in FY 2003-04 (Bangladesh Economic Review 2004), Bangladesh remains one of the poorest countries in the world and still faces severe deficiencies in the quality of its health, population and nutrition services."
According to 'Bangladesh: A Country Study', edited by James Heitzman and Robert Wordon : "In the 1980s, Bangladesh faced no greater problem than population growth. Census data shows in 1901, 29 million lived in East Bengal, now Bangladesh. By 1951, East Bengal or East Pakistan had 44 million people. The first post-independence census, taken in 1974, reported the national population at 71 million. The 1981 census reported a population of 87 million with a 2.3 per cent annual growth rate. That is, in just 80 years, the population has tripled. In July 1988 the population, by then the eighth largest in the world, stood at 109,963,551, and the average annual growth rate was 2.6 per cent. According to official projection, Bangladesh was expected to have a population of more than 140 million by the year 2000."
The article states that the population density increased from 216 persons per square kilometre in 1901, to 312 persons in 1951. By 2000, it was projected to exceed 1,000 persons per square kilometre.
Currently, the total fertility rate (TFR) hovers around 3.08 with no possibility of its going down, especially with the family planning activities remaining stagnant for years. In some areas TFR is over 4 on even 5. Now the population growth rate is: 1.40 per cent.
What will be the scenario in the next 36 or 40 years. Will population growth rate, due to some miracles, come down to zero, so that it still remains at 150 million then? No. In fact, the some demographers predict that the population of Bangladesh will almost double by 2050. It would exceed 280 million by then! On the other hand, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare predicts a population of 250 million around 2080.
So, the obvious questions that come to mind are: Where will so many people find land to set up habitat for themselves? If the existing cities and towns double in size in 2050, will there be enough farmland left to feed 280 million people? Where will they find fresh water to drink and cook food? Will there be enough water-bodies left to breed fish to feed the population? Will there be any forest left by then? What would be the state of the environment and ecology under such a staggering population pressure?
The existing real life scenario points to a bleak future. Maybe out of fear no one dares to take a look at the future. Maybe people now prefer to bury their heads in the sand expecting that the spectre of a burgeoning population would automatically go away. But will it?
These are the questions the thinking minds will ask. And it is the responsibility of the politicians, policy-makers and experts to come up with realistic solutions. But they create an impression that these pertinent questions make most of them uncomfortable. They often fumble for answers. They try to explain "the growing populations as assets" or "human resources." But can millions of malnourished, uneducated, and unskilled people really be much of a resource? Where will the country have so many educational and skill development training institutions to turn them into a resource by 2050? Will this country progress at lightning speed in the next 42 years to be able to employ the extra unemployed millions?
Facts and figures make it clear that unchecked population growth is going haywire without pragmatic policies. The situation calls for a policy to shift stress from domiciliary to clinic-based service. But particular or non-implementation of whatever policies are there, lack of initiative among the officials concerned, lack of motivation and drive among the field staff, and obstacles created by some quarters in society opposed to family planning only provide extra cause for worry.
Imagine, a huge number of newborns are added to the population every year. Does the country's evaluations consider the extra pressure it would put on food, education, health, housing, water, electricity and employment potential? Do the politicians or the policy-makers from the civil service feel the urgency to think about the situation in 2050 and beyond?
No doubt, all-out efforts are needed to make family planning more effective. Emphasis should be to ensure clinical and permanent methods at lower costs to cover disadvantaged areas. To cut down fertility rate, the age of marriage needs to be raised. It will push up age for the first birth. The consequent effect would bring fertility rate down. Bangladesh has great scope to reduce early marriage. Now 50 per cent of teenage girls (15-19) are married, compared to only 33 per cent in India, 25 per cent in Pakistan, and far fewer in other comparable countries.
(Courtesy : GroundReport. Source : Internet)
Bangladesh is already the most densely populated country in the world with its total area of 55,598 square miles (143,999 kilometres). In this small landmass of 55,598 square miles its population is now about 150 million people. In 1971, only 75 million people lived in the same landmass. The population has doubled in the last 36 years, but the land area has not. To make things worse, some areas of Bangladesh, as the prediction goes, will go below the sea in the future.
According to a 2005 article on the website of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare: "With a population of 135.2 million and estimated per capita GDP at $421 in FY 2003-04 (Bangladesh Economic Review 2004), Bangladesh remains one of the poorest countries in the world and still faces severe deficiencies in the quality of its health, population and nutrition services."
According to 'Bangladesh: A Country Study', edited by James Heitzman and Robert Wordon : "In the 1980s, Bangladesh faced no greater problem than population growth. Census data shows in 1901, 29 million lived in East Bengal, now Bangladesh. By 1951, East Bengal or East Pakistan had 44 million people. The first post-independence census, taken in 1974, reported the national population at 71 million. The 1981 census reported a population of 87 million with a 2.3 per cent annual growth rate. That is, in just 80 years, the population has tripled. In July 1988 the population, by then the eighth largest in the world, stood at 109,963,551, and the average annual growth rate was 2.6 per cent. According to official projection, Bangladesh was expected to have a population of more than 140 million by the year 2000."
The article states that the population density increased from 216 persons per square kilometre in 1901, to 312 persons in 1951. By 2000, it was projected to exceed 1,000 persons per square kilometre.
Currently, the total fertility rate (TFR) hovers around 3.08 with no possibility of its going down, especially with the family planning activities remaining stagnant for years. In some areas TFR is over 4 on even 5. Now the population growth rate is: 1.40 per cent.
What will be the scenario in the next 36 or 40 years. Will population growth rate, due to some miracles, come down to zero, so that it still remains at 150 million then? No. In fact, the some demographers predict that the population of Bangladesh will almost double by 2050. It would exceed 280 million by then! On the other hand, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare predicts a population of 250 million around 2080.
So, the obvious questions that come to mind are: Where will so many people find land to set up habitat for themselves? If the existing cities and towns double in size in 2050, will there be enough farmland left to feed 280 million people? Where will they find fresh water to drink and cook food? Will there be enough water-bodies left to breed fish to feed the population? Will there be any forest left by then? What would be the state of the environment and ecology under such a staggering population pressure?
The existing real life scenario points to a bleak future. Maybe out of fear no one dares to take a look at the future. Maybe people now prefer to bury their heads in the sand expecting that the spectre of a burgeoning population would automatically go away. But will it?
These are the questions the thinking minds will ask. And it is the responsibility of the politicians, policy-makers and experts to come up with realistic solutions. But they create an impression that these pertinent questions make most of them uncomfortable. They often fumble for answers. They try to explain "the growing populations as assets" or "human resources." But can millions of malnourished, uneducated, and unskilled people really be much of a resource? Where will the country have so many educational and skill development training institutions to turn them into a resource by 2050? Will this country progress at lightning speed in the next 42 years to be able to employ the extra unemployed millions?
Facts and figures make it clear that unchecked population growth is going haywire without pragmatic policies. The situation calls for a policy to shift stress from domiciliary to clinic-based service. But particular or non-implementation of whatever policies are there, lack of initiative among the officials concerned, lack of motivation and drive among the field staff, and obstacles created by some quarters in society opposed to family planning only provide extra cause for worry.
Imagine, a huge number of newborns are added to the population every year. Does the country's evaluations consider the extra pressure it would put on food, education, health, housing, water, electricity and employment potential? Do the politicians or the policy-makers from the civil service feel the urgency to think about the situation in 2050 and beyond?
No doubt, all-out efforts are needed to make family planning more effective. Emphasis should be to ensure clinical and permanent methods at lower costs to cover disadvantaged areas. To cut down fertility rate, the age of marriage needs to be raised. It will push up age for the first birth. The consequent effect would bring fertility rate down. Bangladesh has great scope to reduce early marriage. Now 50 per cent of teenage girls (15-19) are married, compared to only 33 per cent in India, 25 per cent in Pakistan, and far fewer in other comparable countries.
(Courtesy : GroundReport. Source : Internet)