How is Afghan scenario 10 yrs after Western military offensive?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury The United States launched an allout military offensive against the "Taleban"-ruled Afghanistan ten years ago - on October 7,2001, and the most powerful nation of the world remains engrossed with the tangle with its allies, now with little likelihood of a denouement of the crisis in the future. The Afghan war, by every definition, is the most costly and talked about in contemporary global history as the western nations, led by the US, are engaged in a relentless drive against the Islamic militants, who have kept their much advanced and modern opponents in the tenterhooks in the long-drawn, see-saw battle. It is a conflict that is costing the US heavily while the opponents are neither capitulating nor being able to drive out the "foreigners" from land. How the tangle is going to unveil itself in the coming days? This is certainly the biggest mind-boggling question at present on the international scene. The issue becomes particularly all the more pertinent as the decade-old world flashpoint shows hardly any sign of being resolved either through strength or negotiations while new elements are being added to complicate the seemingly intractable problem. Erstwhile US president George W. Bush responded to the sensational 911 terrorist incidents in the United States by launching military attack against the "Taleban" government in Kabul as the radical Islamic authorities and their backer - the leader of the "Al-Queda" organization Osama Bin Laden -- were considered as being responsible for those incidents in the American soil. The offensive began with the aerial bombings by most sophisticated combat aircraft followed by the ground attack in which Washington's allies like Britain were involved. Not surprisingly, the Talebans were toppled from power and were on the run while both Mollah Omar and Osama Bin Laden remained elusive. Finally, Laden was spotted nearly ten years later in Pakistan and killed by the American commandoes in May, this year. Mollah Omar is still untraceable. Over the years, the Islamic militants at one stage looked on the brink of being eliminated, but regained strength and kept the strong NATO forces engaged with them, with no side making headway towards a resolution of the conflict. Presently, nearly 1,50,000 NATO troops are stationed in the war-torn Afghanistan and president Barack Obama is keen to see a quick end of the crisis in the form of victory for their forces. But this remains an unfulfilled task for his administration and the battles all around the country continue unabated. Certainly, significant changes have taken place in Afghanistan in the last one decade like women empowerment, a desirable departure from hawkish "Taleban" era and improvement in the education, art and culture. Also, a democratic set-up have taken its roots as presidential and parliamentary polls have taken place - albeit their acceptability is at times being questionable. Afghan president Hamid Karzai's second term in the office raised suspicions as the voting was not considered "free and fair" while the government is seen as "weak and corrupt". Nonetheless, Afghanistan is moving towards new phase, albeit many flaws and shortcomings. But the failure of the US-led NATO forces to bring about an end of the tangle raises deep frustration and commotion mainly in the US, which has the biggest stake in the Afghan situation. Many Americans question the rationale of huge financial and costs other losses in Afghanistan while the number of deaths and also those of the injured among their soldiers continue to swell. How long will it take for completion of war ? Is it possible only through military actions or parleys are also necessary? The overall situation remains complex, to say the least. The radicals, largely suffered by the killing of Laden, is in no mood to give up. The security environment in the country is simply terribly instable as evidenced by the killings of president Karzai's brother and former president Burhanuddin Rabbani in recent days. The attack in the fashionable diplomatic area in the high-security "Green Zone" in Kabul by the "Haqqani" organisaion reflects laxity about the much-talked-about security issue. On the other side, new complexities are being introduced in the tangle when nations having great stakes like Pakistan and others are seeking to exact their pound of flesh and consequently, their ties with the US are also getting sour on a variety of issues. Evidently, the radicals are experiencing setbacks and also are having internal problems owing to leadership and other issues. Nevertheless, they are also launching daring attacks, leaving no room for doubt that the tangle seems moving inexorably towards further exacerbation. President Obama had promised for an early end of the conflict when he was elected and now he is more keen for that, as he faces the re-election next year. He and allies have promised to pull out their troops from the embattled country by 2014.But will that be possible? This is the billion-dollar question as the president looks upbeat about the success of his scheme of things. However, David Petreaus, until recently the commander of the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan and now chief of the CIA, had some time ago expressed doubts if such an accomplishment would be possible. Ten years after the crisis spawned, Afghanistan appears like a "mirage" with no side heading for an outright victory; it is difficult to say how long it will take for a denouement - which is obviously not a possibility at least not in the immediate future. E-mail : zaglulbss@yahoo.com