How to manage a large population

Bangladesh has a large population in relation to its territory. In an article titled "On efficient land administration" published in the Financial Express on the 5th August, 2014 this writer wrote, "With a population of about 150 million living in an area of 147 thousand square kilometres, the density of population is 953 persons per square kilometre. The population is likely to increase to 235 million in 2051. Such a phenomenal increase will have adverse implications for the country's socio-economic development including high man-land ratio, reduced agricultural land, pressure on utilities, job market and declining quality the poor". Large population implies demand for more housing, more educational institutions, more hospitals, more roads and transports and more utilities.
What should be the optimum size of population of a country is mathematically difficult to determine. The idea is that the size of population that supports sustained development of a country where people can enjoy the necessary utilities of life including basic necessities may be termed as optimum population. It is certainly a variable and can vary from time to time.
Bangladesh has undergone a demographic transition from high birth and mortality rates and low life expectancy to low birth and mortality rates and high life expectancy, resulting in a higher proportion of young and working age population and a lower dependency rate. The relatively higher proportion of the working age population can create virtuous cycles of growth commonly known as the "demographic dividend". A higher proportion of working age population leads to relatively high per capita income, increased savings, increased investment, higher growth and higher employment. Reaping the benefits of the demographic dividend will, however, require appropriate policies to create adequate productive jobs. If the growing labour force is not matched by the number of jobs, both unemployment and underemployment will result, implying missed opportunities. Macroeconomic and sectoral policies including labour market policies shall have to be pursued towards providing productive employment to the growing labour force to reap the demographic dividend.
Population growth which was once considered the number one problem, slipped in priority during last one decade and a half. It should be brought back to its original position again. In order to manage the large size of population, family planning and reproductive health programmes should be vigorously pursued.
Apparently, successive governments over last two decades have been assigning importance to human resource development. The plan documents of the government of Bangladesh suggest that around 20 per cent of development outlay goes to socio economic sector like education and technology health and family welfare, women and children, social welfare, development of youth and sports culture, labour and employment. In order to achieve socio-economic development, sectoral priorities at least for 20 years should be fixed. For example, how much manpower for health sector, how much for industries and how much for foreign employment and so on should be worked out. Then human resources should be developed by imparting education and training without losing any time.
In addition to population control and human resource development, some other actions are absolutely necessary to manage the large size of our population. In my article published on the 5th instant, importance was given on the planned use of land according to land zoning maps, strict enforcement of the town improvement Act of 1953 and the promulgation of a new law which may be named as the village improvement act.
An effective and meaningful decentralisation plan is also required to deal with the large population. It involves decentralisation of administration on the one hand and decentralisation of economic and development activities on the other.
In the first instance, divisional development board may be introduced at divisional levels. 30 per cent of ADP (annual development programme) outlay may be allocated to the development boards. Development activities under LGED, development of primary and secondary schools, madrashas small irrigation and drainages, public health and sanitation and others can be undertaken with the allocated fund. The organisation, nomenclature and functions of the divisional development board will be determined by the government through discussion in parliament.
In the education and health sector, government's holistic policy should be to establish public universities, medical and engineering colleges at district levels and to restrict the establishment of these types of institutions in the mufassal areas in the private sector. In the case of admission to higher educational institutions, arrangement should be made to provide more room to students in institutions outside Dhaka.
The most important issue is the creation of various economic or industrial zones in different parts of the country to absorb growing working force. The responsibility of the government is to make such zones ready for setting up industries. Necessary fiscal, tariff and credit measures should be taken to encourage the entrepreneurs.
In the transport sector, some rearrangements about stations and jetties can be made and some facilities created in the short-run. For example, in the railway sector, sufficient carriages can be added to facilitate increasing number of passengers. Joydevpur may be made the starting and the ending station of all the trains of north and south-east. For Sylhet and Mymensingh-Jamalpur bound trains, Dhaka airport station may be made the starting point. Jamuna Bridge-Dhaka and Bhairab-Dhaka routes deserve regular shuttle trains. Similarly, some jetties can be established along the Shitalakhya and the Buriganga and at AminBazar for loading and off-loading launch passengers of different routes.
On the administrative front, the government may arrange to shift some government, semi-government and corporations offices outside Dhaka through a careful exercise. It may encourage the private sector to establish offices outside Dhaka city.
Circumstances suggest that an integrated national plan of action is urgently required to manage the large population of Bangladesh. The plan of action will direct vigorous persuasion of family planning and reproductive health programmes, human resource development, planned use of land, decentralisation of economic and development activities, creation of job opportunities, education and health facilities in different parts of the country, re-arrangements in transport facilities and shifting of some public sector offices to areas outside Dhaka.
The writer is an economist
and columnist.
 chowdhuryjafar@ymail.com