How will be power situation next summer?
Wednesday, 11 January 2012
Shamsul Huq Zahid
Power subscribers are now enjoying their life without the dreadful load-shedding for the actual generation of electricity these days is more than the demand for the same.
Last Monday, the countrywide demand for power was for 4543 megawatt (MW) as against the generation of nearly 5000 MW. Thus, the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) is now basking in surplus power!
But will this worry-free time as far as power supply is concerned continue during the next summer? This particular question is haunting the minds of millions of power subscribers across the country.
There is no ready answer to the query even from the men controlling power generation, transmission and distribution. But power sector scenario does not make one optimistic about a trouble-free next summer.
The ongoing respite from load-shedding is attributed mainly to non-operation of hundreds of thousands of electric fans and air-conditioners at homes and offices.
With the advent of the summer season, these fans and air-conditioners would come back to life, adding an extra load of a few hundred MW.
The impact of these air cooling appliances could be gauzed well from the fluctuation in demand for power in winter and other seasons, particularly the summer. In August last, the gap between the demand for, and supply of, power ranged from 1000mw to 1200 MW despite the fact at the fag end of that month power generation peaked to 5167 MW which was only 07 MW less than the record volume of power generated at a later date, November 23 of the same year.
Despite a rosy picture being painted about the future situation by the power that be, subscribers have reasons to be worried about the situation at least in the next summer.
The power ministry, according to a report published in a Bengali daily early this week, has decided to provide power connections to a large number of industrial units (I8887) side by side reaching electricity to the newly-built residential houses. The demand for power from these new industrial consumers is estimated at about 400 MW. If the programme of giving power connections to new industrial units is materialized on schedule, the load-shedding in all probability would be more frequent in next summer than that of the recent past.
There is no denying that it is the responsibility of the relevant parastatals to make power available to a large number of new industrial units that have been counting sizeable losses out of their investments in plants and machinery. None should grumble about providing power to these industries. But the issue here is the possible impact of the decision on the situation on the ground.
The total generation capacity of the power plants in December last was 7613 MW as against the actual generation of around 5180 MW. In April next (summer season) even after enforcing the planned load management (load-shedding) schedule, the gap between the peak demand and the actual generation is now estimated at around 1500 MW.
What is worse is that the distribution lines across the country, including the capital city, are in a bad shape. The authorities concerned have paid more attention to hike power generation capacity bothering not much about improving the power distribution network. In some areas, the distribution lines are already overloaded and any addition of load to the same will have the potential of disrupting the power supply.
It is most likely that the power situation would largely be eased within next couple of years, notwithstanding the fact the option -- rental and quick rental power plants -- chosen to resolve the problem would continue to trigger even bigger problems in some other areas, economic management in particular.
The power subscribers are unhappy with the recent repeated hike in power tariff. But an undisrupted power supply for quite sometime has been leaving a soothing effect on them. But if the usual or even worse load-shedding is enforced in the hot summer days, the unhappiness over tariff hike might turn into real anger. A government that, at least, has tried so much to improve the situation -- maybe, the expensive rental power plant option was not the right one -- does not deserve hostility from the power subscribers.
But the fact remains that the consumers are more concerned about the present than the future. If anything is hurting them now, they want the government to find a cure immediately. Failure to do that only draws public ire against the government.
Zahidmar10@gmail.com
Power subscribers are now enjoying their life without the dreadful load-shedding for the actual generation of electricity these days is more than the demand for the same.
Last Monday, the countrywide demand for power was for 4543 megawatt (MW) as against the generation of nearly 5000 MW. Thus, the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) is now basking in surplus power!
But will this worry-free time as far as power supply is concerned continue during the next summer? This particular question is haunting the minds of millions of power subscribers across the country.
There is no ready answer to the query even from the men controlling power generation, transmission and distribution. But power sector scenario does not make one optimistic about a trouble-free next summer.
The ongoing respite from load-shedding is attributed mainly to non-operation of hundreds of thousands of electric fans and air-conditioners at homes and offices.
With the advent of the summer season, these fans and air-conditioners would come back to life, adding an extra load of a few hundred MW.
The impact of these air cooling appliances could be gauzed well from the fluctuation in demand for power in winter and other seasons, particularly the summer. In August last, the gap between the demand for, and supply of, power ranged from 1000mw to 1200 MW despite the fact at the fag end of that month power generation peaked to 5167 MW which was only 07 MW less than the record volume of power generated at a later date, November 23 of the same year.
Despite a rosy picture being painted about the future situation by the power that be, subscribers have reasons to be worried about the situation at least in the next summer.
The power ministry, according to a report published in a Bengali daily early this week, has decided to provide power connections to a large number of industrial units (I8887) side by side reaching electricity to the newly-built residential houses. The demand for power from these new industrial consumers is estimated at about 400 MW. If the programme of giving power connections to new industrial units is materialized on schedule, the load-shedding in all probability would be more frequent in next summer than that of the recent past.
There is no denying that it is the responsibility of the relevant parastatals to make power available to a large number of new industrial units that have been counting sizeable losses out of their investments in plants and machinery. None should grumble about providing power to these industries. But the issue here is the possible impact of the decision on the situation on the ground.
The total generation capacity of the power plants in December last was 7613 MW as against the actual generation of around 5180 MW. In April next (summer season) even after enforcing the planned load management (load-shedding) schedule, the gap between the peak demand and the actual generation is now estimated at around 1500 MW.
What is worse is that the distribution lines across the country, including the capital city, are in a bad shape. The authorities concerned have paid more attention to hike power generation capacity bothering not much about improving the power distribution network. In some areas, the distribution lines are already overloaded and any addition of load to the same will have the potential of disrupting the power supply.
It is most likely that the power situation would largely be eased within next couple of years, notwithstanding the fact the option -- rental and quick rental power plants -- chosen to resolve the problem would continue to trigger even bigger problems in some other areas, economic management in particular.
The power subscribers are unhappy with the recent repeated hike in power tariff. But an undisrupted power supply for quite sometime has been leaving a soothing effect on them. But if the usual or even worse load-shedding is enforced in the hot summer days, the unhappiness over tariff hike might turn into real anger. A government that, at least, has tried so much to improve the situation -- maybe, the expensive rental power plant option was not the right one -- does not deserve hostility from the power subscribers.
But the fact remains that the consumers are more concerned about the present than the future. If anything is hurting them now, they want the government to find a cure immediately. Failure to do that only draws public ire against the government.
Zahidmar10@gmail.com